JUST before you wrap up the British flat turf season, there’s the Virgin Bet November Handicap to solve.

It could all be very straightforward, because Valvano has lots and lots in his favour, a lightly-raced and progressive three-year-old with a high(ish) draw who is proven on soft ground.

Ralph Beckett’s horse hasn’t won since he won his maiden at Nottingham last October on his racecourse debut, but he has run just three times in the meantime, and two of the three runs were very good. Second behind Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner Notable Speech in a conditions stakes at Kempton on his debut this season, he finished third behind the high-class Bolster in a handicap at York last time, and Bolster came out last weekend and won a listed race at Newmarket.

The handicapper left Valvano on his mark of 97 after that, which was more than fair. He has the potential to out-perform that today, stepping up in trip and, as a bonus, he has drawn stall 12. The last eight winners of the race, when it was run at Doncaster, were drawn 10 or higher.

But Valvano is short, and he does have to reverse places with Stressfree, who finished second behind Bolster, two lengths in front of Valvano, in that York handicap. Valvano is 5lb better off today, but the disparity in their respective prices may be greater than it should be.

Stepping up

As well as that, Stressfree has stepped forward from that in the meantime, he ran a big race at Doncaster two weeks ago to finish third behind Laafi, and he ran better than the bare form of the run suggests. Back in the field early on, he was checked in his run at a crucial stage of the race. Jamie Spencer had to take him back and around, momentum checked, start again, before he could ask him for maximum effort. When he did, Stressfree picked up well and went to the line strongly. If the ball had hopped a little more kindly for him, he might even have won the race.

He is only 1lb higher today than he was then on a mark of 93, and that gives him a big chance. He is stepping up in trip from 10 and 10 and a half furlongs to 12 furlongs today, but he has been finishing off his races strongly. A half-brother to Spotify, a winner over a mile and a half, he shapes as if he will get this trip all right. Stressfree has run three times at Doncaster, and he has run well on all three occasions.

At his best on soft ground, and appears to thrive on being held up off a strong pace and passing horses. He has the big field today that should generate those conditions, and, in Jamie Spencer, who will be riding him for just the second time today, he has the ideal partner for the implementation of those tactics.

His draw in stall five is lower than ideal, but he is almost certainly going to be ridden out the back anyway, and delivered late, probably towards the stands side. And actually, six of the first eight home in the race in 2022, the last time the race was run at Doncaster, were drawn 10 or lower.

Aintree

Switching codes, Authorized Art is a really interesting contender for the Grand Sefton Chase, over the Grand National fences at Aintree.

The Authorized gelding was a high-class chaser when he was with Willie Mullins. Winner of a Grade 3 novices’ chase at Tipperary in October 2022, he ran a big race in the Galway Plate last year to finish second to Ash Tree Meadow, and he was only just headed at the final fence in a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival in May, when he raced off a mark of 151.

Just 2lb higher now, he shaped really encouragingly in a listed hurdle run over an inadequate two miles at Kempton last time on his first run for Gary and Josh Moore.

He came under a ride when they quickened on the run to the end of the back straight, but he stayed on nicely to take third place behind last year’s Elite Hurdle winner Rubaud, who also finished second behind Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle last December, and Kihavah, a 101-rated flat performer who finished second in the Ebor in August.

Authorized Art should improve for that run, his first run since he finished down the field in this year’s Galway Plate during the summer. He should also appreciate the return to fences and the step back up in trip. He is a good jumper who could be ideally suited by the Aintree fences, and his prominent style of racing is well suited to the track.

He is the highest-rated horse in the race, but Caoilin Quinn’s 3lb claim takes him down to 11st 11lb, and the highweights generally hold sway in the Grand Sefton anyway. Six of the last eight winners carried 10st 13lb or more, and only six horses are set to carry that type of weight in today’s renewal.

Recommended:

Stressfree 1 pt each-way 3.45 Doncaster 9/1 (generally)

Authorized Art 1 pt each-way 2.40 Aintree, 16/1 (generally)