THE Club Godolphin Cesarewitch is not easy anyway, and the puzzle is rendered even more tricky than it might have been by the presence in the race of Sea Of Sands and Jacovec Cavern.

It’s not hugely surprising that these two are high in the market, nor that they have been for a while.

It’s not surprising that the bookmakers have played Sea Of Sands defensively. For starters, he is trained by Willie Mullins, who has won three of the last six renewals of the Cesarewitch, and who fielded Burning Victory to finish second in one of the three that he didn’t win.

Sea Of Sands is the champion National Hunt trainer’s sole representative in a race in which he fielded the 1-2 in 2018.

As importantly, the Sea The Stars gelding is a classy recruit off the flat in Germany, he won the Group 3 Derby Trial at Hoppegarten as a three-year-old over 10 furlongs in 2021, and he ran in that year’s German Derby, sent off as second favourite in the race.

He had his first run for Willie Mullins in a maiden hurdle at Listowel two and a half weeks ago, a race that he won doing handsprings. That was his first run under any code since he ran in a claimer on the Polytrack at Deauville in August 2022.

He has been given a handicap rating of 97 by the British handicapper, and it is very difficult to know if that is lenient or harsh.

Cavern’s return

Jacovec Cavern has been played similarly defensively by the bookmakers. Winner of a stayers’ handicap at Newbury two years ago off a mark of 76 on his final run for Mick Channon, he was a decent juvenile hurdler for Paul Hennessy two seasons ago, he ran in the Triumph Hurdle and in the Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle at Punchestown.

He didn’t run again after the 2023 Punchestown Festival until he had his first run for Emmet Mullins in a two-mile handicap at this year’s Galway Festival.

He was really well backed for that contest, and he looked the likely winner when he made his ground through his field under Michael O’Sullivan on the run around the home turn to join the front rank at the furlong marker. In the end, he just couldn’t get past Busselton, but it was a fine run in defeat after such a long absence.

He is set to race off a mark of 83 today, just 3lb higher than the Irish mark off which he raced at Galway, and that looks like a mark that is more than reasonable. You can easily make the case.

You can make the case for many others though.

Premiere Ligne ran well in the Cesarewitch Trial over today’s course and distance three weeks ago off a mark of 84, and he gets to race off the same mark today, he is 3lb well-in. He had every chance to go and win the Cesarewitch Trial, when the winner Robert Johnson hung to his left. In the end, he came up three parts of a length short. It was his fourth runner-up finish in a row but, if the first-time blinkers can galvanise him a little bit, he could step forward.

The Shunter is only 5lb higher than he was when he won the race last year. He was 10 last year, the oldest winner since Carraciola in 2008, and he is obviously a year older this year, but Caracciola was 11 when he won it. It’s not beyond the bounds.

Spirit Mixer goes into the race on a roll, and Queenstown was running in group races and listed races before the Ebor, and Reverend Hubert gets to race off a flat mark of 83, which could be lenient, given that he is rated 144 over fences.

Bumper winner

But Sixandahalf could be the answer. Winner of a bumper at the Punchestown Festival in April, Gavin Cromwell’s mare has been progressing nicely on the flat during the summer.

She was good in winning a handicap over a mile and six furlongs on Newmarket’s July Course in August, and she ran a big race last time in the Irish Cesarewitch, going down by just over a length in the end to the classy winner The Euphrates.

She is only 1lb higher now than she was at The Curragh, and she is still lightly raced, she has the potential to be better than an 89-rated horse on the flat.

Her draw in stall 20 is not ideal, but it’s not the case anymore that you need to be drawn low in the Cesarewitch, not since Frankie Dettori won it on Never Can Tell from stall 36. Great White Shark won the race from stall 20 in 2020, and Burning Victory and Call The Wind finished second and third respectively from stalls 25 and 27 in 2019.

Robert Whearty knows the mare well, he is good value for his 3lb claim, and Gavin Cromwell’s horses continue in good form, he had a double at Thurles on Thursday.

Underestimated

Earlier in the day, County Mayo’s chance in the Zetland Stakes may have been under-rated by the market.

You can understand why his stable companion Shackleton is favourite. Aidan O’Brien’s horse is the choice of Ryan Moore, and he showed a really good attitude to go on and win his maiden at The Curragh last time. Also, County Mayo has 10 lengths to find with him on their running behind Beresford Stakes runner-up Tennessee Stud at Tipperary in early September.

But County Mayo obviously benefited hugely from that run, his racecourse debut, and he was very good last time at Gowran Park. He bounced out of stall one and made most of the running, keeping on well under Wayne Lordan to see off the challenge of the well-regarded Tribal Nation.

By Wootton Bassett and out of a full-sister to Queen’s Vase and Prix Chaudenay winner Illinois, and a half-sister to Arc winner Danedream, he could come forward again from his Gowran run, and he should improve for the step up to 10 furlongs. Wayne Lordan was seen to great effect yesterday on Merrily, Aidan O’Brien’s second string in the Oh So Sharp Stakes, and County Mayo could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Recommended

County Mayo, 1.50 Newmarket, 1pt win, 8/1 (generally)

Sixandahalf, 3.40 Newmarket, 1 pt e/w, 8/1 (generally)