THE stats tell you that the William Hill Hurdle has generally been a young horse’s game, and the form book tells you that that may be the case this year again.

True, the seven-year-old Aucunrisque won the race in 2023, got home by a length from another seven-year-old in Filey Bay, and the seven-year-old Glory And Fortune won it in 2022, by a short-head from the five-year-old I Like To Move It.

But those two anomalies aside, every other winner since Geos in 2004 was either five or six and, if you take that hypothesis as it is, you have narrowed a field of 18 down to eight.

Of course, while it’s not a bad starting point, it’s not as simple as that and, even if you do take that trend at face value, you are still faced with a tricky assignment in endeavouring to determine which of the younger horses is more likely to come out on top.

Joyeuse is a big player, and you can see why Nico De Boinville has chosen to ride her in front of last year’s winner Iberico Lord. J.P. McManus’ mare did well last time in a mares’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham to get as close as she did to Gordon Elliott’s mare Wodhooh, unbeaten now in six over hurdles, coming off a sedate pace. And the third horse from that race, Take No Chances, came out and beat Kargese in a Grade 2 contest at Ascot next time.

Joyeuse has been raised by just 4lb for that run to a mark of 123 and, a six-year-old mare out of a half-sister to Champion Hurdle winner Epatante who has raced just three times over hurdles, she has the potential to go well beyond that mark.

She is short though, as is Secret Squirrel, who won nicely at Windsor last time and who is 1lb well-in under his 5lb penalty.

Could do better

Navajo Indy finished three lengths behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor, but he is 5lb better off with Hughie Morrison’s horse today, and there are other reasons for believing that he could do better today.

The Nathaniel gelding was out the back from early at Windsor, he seemed to be struggling with the pace or with the track or with the combination.

A detached last for much of the race, he has squeezed along from early, but he was staying on when he made a mistake at the second last flight on the inside just when he was starting to bridge the gap to the leaders.

That was a real momentum-halter, he had to get going again, but he kept on well on the far side, probably on the slowest part of the track, to take fourth place.

Tom Symonds’ horse had been in really good form in the lead up to that race, rattling up a hat-trick and improving from a handicap rating of 116 to the rating of 128 off which he ran in that Windsor race. The handicapper has left him on that mark now after his fourth-place finish there, and that is fair.

It appears as if Windsor’s new National Hunt track is not for everybody, and Navajo Indy should be seen to much better effect back at Newbury, back on a galloping track.

He put up the best performance of his career to date at the Berkshire track in November, when he stayed on well to win the Gerry Feilden Hurdle.

He is only 8lb higher now than he was then and, with just seven runs over hurdles on his CV, he has the potential to resume his progression now back at Newbury, where his record reads 121. And the fitting of cheekpieces could elicit further improvement.

Handicap hurdle

Navajo Indy’s rider Gavin Sheehan also rides Up For Parol in the three-mile handicap hurdle earlier on the day, and he could go well too. Another point-to-point winner for Matthew O’Connor, Jamie Snowden’s horse stepped up to almost three miles for the first time under rules on his final run last season, when he kept on well to finish third in a handicap hurdle at Chepstow off a mark of 121.

He ran well on his debut this season too in a three-mile handicap hurdle, a Pertemps qualifier, at Sandown on Tingle Creek Chase day in early December, and he stepped forward from that last time at Ffos Las when he won nicely.

In rear early on that day, he went around the inside, away from the main body of the field. He joined the leaders at the final flight though, the usual second last, and he stayed on gamely up the run-in to win nicely.

A 6lb hike for that takes him up to a mark of 127, which is still 6lb lower than his peak. He is nine now and he has had plenty of racing, but he goes into the race in good form, he remains unexposed over staying trips, and there is every chance that he can go forward again now over three miles.

He goes well on soft ground, so he won’t mind if they get any more rain and, while he has never run at Newbury, his best form is at Wetherby and Haydock and Ffos Las, all flat left-handed tracks like Newbury

Recommended:

Up For Parol, 1.50 Newbury, 11/2 (generally), 1 point win

Navajo Indy, 3.35 Newbury, 13/2 (generally), 1 point each-way