BIG day ahead. It helps that the Classic is set to be run at 9.41pm and not at 12.40am, like it was the last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Del Mar. But be sure to be back in situ in time of the Mile, in which Donnacha O’Brien’s filly Porta Fortuna could crown a glittering season.

City Of Troy? It would be fantastic. The Derby winner, the Eclipse winner, the Juddmonte International winner, to add a Breeders’ Cup Classic would be extraordinary. To skip the Irish Champion Stakes, to skip the Arc, all with the objective of achieving something out of the ordinary.

Only one European-trained horse has won a Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt since the inauguration of the race in 1984.

There are so many positives. He is the outstanding middle-distance colt in Europe this year, his preparation appears to have gone swimmingly, he is trained by probably the best trainer in the world, he will be ridden by probably the best rider in the world, he has a nice draw in stall three, the distance should be ideal.

Dirt? That’s it. That’s the imponderable obviously. It’s impossible to know for sure until he races on it, until he faces the kickback, but connections obviously think that he will be able to operate on it. And, if he can get out sharply and if he can knit himself into the front rank, as he did in the Juddmonte International, he may get away without seeing much kickback at all.

Here’s hoping.

A real chance

But America is not the only foreign terrain on which Irish horses are competing today. Amirite goes to Ascot to contest the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup, and he goes there with a real chance.

It is mildly surprising that Amirite hasn’t won since he won his beginners’ chase on his chasing bow at Fairyhouse in October 2022, but he has threatened on several occasions since, and he gives the impression that he could be well handicapped on a mark in the low 140s when he has conditions in his favour.

Thought good enough by connections to be allowed contest the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Chase and the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Chase as a novice, Henry de Bromhead’s horse ran a big race in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April. He travelled well until the run to the Pond Fence, and he mounted a real challenge at the second last fence before his stamina appeared to ebb.

On his first run after that, he ran really well in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan, keeping on well to take second place behind Idas Boy. He was right there until the home turn in the Galway Plate before fading on the run up the hill, and the ground was just too soft for him last time in the Kerry National.

His trainer has given him a nice break since then, he goes to Ascot fresh and well after a five-and-a-half-week break, and today’s set up looks like a good set up for him: good ground, probably good pace, three miles. He retains the potential to be better than a 142-rated horse and Mike O’Connor takes 3lb off. Also, Henry de Bromhead has his team in tremendous form these days. He had seven winners in five days last weekend, at five different tracks and in two jurisdictions.

Tough contest

Chianti Classico is obviously a big player. Winner of the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham in March, he finished fourth behind Inothewayurthinkin and Iroko and Heart Wood in a hot Mildmay Chase at Aintree in April. And he goes well fresh, he has won on his seasonal debut for each of the last two seasons.

But he is short, the ground may be faster than ideal for him, he is 9lb higher now than he was when he won the Ultima and, while he has won at Ascot, on goodish ground, over today’s course and distance, that novices’ handicap chase that he won last November was a weak enough three-horse contest in which he jumped a little to his left. He is the logical favourite, but may not be invincible.

Bravemansgame is the logical favourite too in the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. The 2022 King George winner and the 2023 Gold Cup and King George runner-up, it is likely that Paul Nicholls has had this race on his radar since the summer. But he was beaten in the race last year, he hasn’t won since he won that King George almost two years ago and actually, he isn’t even the highest-rated horse in today’s race.

That accolade goes to Conflated, and he is a really interesting contender. You can understand why Gordon Elliott is taking him to Wetherby instead of toDown Royal. The Yeats gelding can jump to his left, he is probably a better horse going left than going right, and he is a big player here, especially now that Grey Dawning has been scratched.

Value

That said, French Dynamite may be the value of the race. Second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup two years ago and a close-up fourth in the Ryanair Chase last year, Mouse Morris’ horse is unexposed over staying trips. When he lined up in the Grade 3 BetVictor Chase at Punchestown two and a half weeks ago, he was racing for just the second time in his life over around three miles over fences.

He was good in winning that day. He got into a lovely rhythm from early and, challenged by Minella Indo at the second last fence, he kept on gallantly from there to win well.

He has lots to find on ratings, and the race conditions don’t suit him. He has to concede 4lb to Bravemansgame and Conflated, who are rated, respectively, 15lb and 16lb his superior. But he has race fitness in his favour and he goes into the race in good form. A half-brother to Mighty Potter and Indiana Jones and Caldwell Potter and Brighterdaysahead, three miles on a flat track on good ground probably represents close to optimal conditions for the Robcour gelding.

Gentlemansgame confounded the ratings and the market when he got the better of Bravemansgame in this race last year and, representing the same connections, there is a chance that French Dynamite can repeat the feat.

Recommended:

Amirite 3.45 Ascot 1 point win 13/2 (generally)

French Dynamite 2.58 Wetherby 1 point win 7/1 (generally)