IT’S like the hairpin bend in the Monaco Grand Prix: a total change in direction.

An immersion in Punchestown all week, at the end of six or seven months of jumps, and now, today, City Of Troy and the Guineas.

It’s back to the classroom now to watch the videos, if you haven’t already. Refresh your memory.

A maiden win at the Curragh on Irish Derby weekend when he ran all the way through the line and Ryan Moore struggled to pull him up before he got to the backboard. Then a Superlative Stakes win at Newmarket, when he cleared away from his rivals, the performance living up to the race’s name, putting six and a half lengths between himself and last month’s Craven Stakes winner Haatem by the time he got to the winning line.

And then the Dewhurst, straightforward as you like, settled in front, Ryan Moore confident in his ability and his uncompolicatedness, and picked up when his rider asked him to.

Again Aidan O’Brien’s colt came clear, on the softest ground that he had ever encountered, over seven furlongs of Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, of Newmarket’s Guineas course.

All the vibes coming from Ballydoyle all the way through the spring have been positive, it seems that the winter has gone smoothly, and you’re just looking forward to seeing him race again.

Superstars

All the comparisons with the superstars who have trod the Guineas path have been made and, you never know, he could be as good as most of them.

We haven’t seen him in over 200 days, and today will tell us more, but he could be the headline act of the 2024 season.

He is not really a betting proposition though today, not at the price. He is one of those ones though who, when he wins at a shade of odds-on, you will probably think, he was value at a shade of odds-on. That’s the nature of it.

There isn’t a bad each-way shape to the race though, so it is worthwhile looking for alternatives.

Rosallion is the obvious alternative, clear second favourite in the market. Winner of his first two races last season, Richard Hannon’s horse was beaten in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September, but you can easily put that down to the soft ground, especially in light of his subsequent performance in winning the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day at ParisLongchamp.

There were plenty of factors against him that day, he was drawn wide and he was keen through the early part of the race, but he picked up smartly and he went to the line strongly, coming home a length clear of Unquestionable.

Three elements add further ballast to the quality of that performance. Firstly, he did really well to win from stall 10 of 10, widest of all. To put it into context, the previous eight winners of the race (two of them at Chantilly admittedly) were all drawn four or lower. Secondly, the time was good, the fastest time ever recorded for the race. And thirdly, the runner-up, Unquestionable, went to Santa Anita next time and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Big race

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rosallion run a big race, but there is rain forecast at Newmarket now, and any softening of the ground would be a worry for the Blue Point colt. Also, the market is onto him, and best odds of 11/2 (or 7/4 without City Of Troy) are no better than fair.

By contrast, the 20/1 or 22/1 that is on offer about Task Force looks big. Winner of his maiden on his racecourse debut at Salisbury in July, Ralph Beckett’s horse did well to win the Listed Two-Year-Old Trophy over six furlongs at Ripon next time.

He had to make his challenge furthest from the stands’ rail, and he was still green, but he kept on well to win nicely.

He was kept to six furlongs for his third run too, in the Middle Park Stakes and, while he couldn’t match Vandeek for pace, he stayed on well on the near side to snatch second place.

Back in fourth place that day was Jessica Harrington’s colt Givemethebeatboys, who won the Listed Committed Stakes at Naas last week. And back in ninth, ninth of nine, was Jasour, who won the Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot on Wednesday.

Just three horses from last year’s Middle Park Stakes have run since, and two of them have won.

Task Force shaped in the Middle Park like a horse who would appreciate a step up in trip, and that hypothesis is backed up by his breeding. His dam is Special Duty, who won the Prix Robert Papin over five and a half furlongs and the Cheveley Park Stakes over six, but she is also a dual Guineas winner, even if, bizarrely and famously, she was awarded both the English Guineas and the French Guineas in the stewards’ room.

As well as that, Task Force is by Frankel, and he is a three-parts brother to Elegant Verse, who won a listed race over a mile and a half.

He could improve significantly for stepping up from six furlongs to a mile.

The Juddmonte colt proved in the Middle Park that he could operate at Newmarket, on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, and on good to firm ground, although slightly easier ground today should suit him well.

He has had a wind operation since we last saw him too, and that could elicit a little more improvement. He could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Task Force, 3.35 Newmarket, 1 point each-way, 20/1 (generally),