2.10 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) 2m 1f
Captain Guinness: The reigning Champion Chase winner has failed to figure on both starts this season (clinically abnormal after the Fortria and beaten 26 lengths by Solness here at Christmas). Always capable of running big in this company when on his ‘A’ game but hard to trust at present and Rachael Blackmore prefers stablemate Quilixios.
El Fabiolo: Bolted up in this race last year as 4/11 favourite and sent off 2/9 for last year’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham before pulled up on the back of a bad mistake at the fifth. Jumping let him down again behind Jonbon at Sandown on only start since last April (beaten four lengths in second). Hasn’t had a clear run with injury so only making first start of the season now. He sets a clear standard on his best form but has been absent 281 days, Paul Townend has opted for Gaelic Warrior and it appears he might just need this run.
Gaelic Warrior: Blew out completely at this meeting last year when 4/7 favourite to beat Fact To File, though managed to bounce back in style to win the Arkle at Cheltenham. Turned over by Il Etait Temps at the Punchestown Festival afterwards and a shade disappointing he couldn’t get the better of Solness here on his seasonal comeback over Christmas, (that said, race fitness appeared to count for plenty and he finished out well). Improvement on the cards but curious to see connections feel the need to add a tongue-tie to his usual hood for the first time. Obvious chance.
Gentleman De Mee: Winner of this race in 2023 when 1/4 favourite Blue Lord bombed out. That was his most recent victory, though he did get within a length and a half of beating Captain Guinness in a sub-par renewal of the Champion Chase at Cheltenham last season. No fireworks in two starts this term and that makes him tough to fancy. However, he tends to save his best for the spring.
Marine Nationale: Dual Grade 1-winning novice hurdler has only had four runs over fences, missing time after being turned over as 4/7 favourite at this meeting last year. Appeared to improve from being beaten by Quilixios on his Naas return when finishing third to Solness and Gaelic Warrior here over Christmas. Likelihood of yielding ground could help him to deliver his very best and isn’t out of the equation, but still needs to show Grade 1-winning form in open company.
Quilixios: Smart performance on comeback in Grade 3 at Naas in November, dishing out a seven-and-a-half-length beating to Marine Nationale, and not disgraced despite being well held in an eight-length second to Jonbon in the Tingle Creek. Given time to freshen up since and no shock if he runs a big race. However, stable has been going through a quiet period since the turn of the year. Positive that Rachael Blackmore prefers him to Captain Guinness.
Senecia: Career-best effort when third in the Fortria last time. Only rated 139, though, and likely to find this too hot.
Solness: Given a peach of a ride by J.J. Slevin when causing 28/1 upset in Christmas Grade 1 here last time, making all on his way to a three-and-three-quarter-length win over Gaelic Warrior. That performance confirmed his form has gone to a new level this winter, having fired a warning shot when second and not getting the rub of the green in the Fortria. Likes this place and dangerous if left to his own devices in front but others have stronger overall bodies of work from a form perspective. Will probably earn a decent chunk of the prize money again.
It’s tough to go against Gaelic Warrior if the same version of him that won last year’s Arkle turns up, though it is worth flagging for those tempted to get involved at the likely short price that he does appear to have a preference for going right-handed and has been a beaten favourite at odds of 1/3, 4/7 and 13/8 (twice). In other words, he hasn’t always been bombproof but still looks the likeliest winner. It’s worth watching how the market interprets El Fabiolo after his layoff.