3.20 Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

Daddy Long Legs: Punchestown Festival handicap winner can blow hot and cold. Nothing to write home about in the Morgiana last time, when he would have no issues in terms of fitness. Would be a shock if he troubled the big two.

Fils d’Oudairies: Continues to accumulate prize money in small-field graded races, though has never looked likely to win a Grade 1 like this. A clear round will see him take home another portion of the pot again.

State Man: Had been metronomically consistent before this season, winning 12 of his previous 13 starts and the only defeat coming at the hands of Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. Entitled to have needed the run when second to a race-fit Brighterdaysahead in the Morgiana but clearly failed to fire here at Christmas when beaten 31 lengths. Paul Townend shows his loyalty by sticking with the Irish Champion Hurdle hat-trick seeker but the market thinks he’s got it wrong.

Winter Fog: Hasn’t looked like winning but not disgraced the last twice when third in the Morgiana (beaten 14 lengths) and second to Brighterdaysahead here at Christmas (beaten 30 lengths). State Man didn’t run his race last time when just behind him and hard to see that form being upheld.

Lossiemouth: Has never finished out of the first two in her life, winning nine of her 11 starts. Looked as good as ever when beating Teahupoo in the Hatton’s Grace before being turned over by Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle. Connections felt she never latched on like she can then, though the strong early tempo looked a factor in that and the fact potentially that they had been working on getting her settled early previously. If at her very best, it’ll be tough for State Man to give her 7lb and a beating.

The match of the weekend between Willie Mullins top two-mile hurdlers, and the fact that Paul Townend has kept the faith with the back-to-back winner of this race adds further intrigue. State Man, so often underestimated, isn’t coming here on the back of an ideal prep given how poorly he ran last time, whereas Lossiemouth still managed to get within two and a half lengths of Constitution Hill while apparently never really giving her rider a major feel. Provided that effort doesn’t leave a mark on the younger challenger, having had to dig in gamely, she gets the nod to follow in the footsteps of Apple’s Jade and Honeysuckle as a mare in this race taking advantage of the 7lb sex allowance.