ParisLongchamp Sunday

2.50 Qatar Prix Vermeille (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) 1m 4f

Many people will see the eight-runner Qatar Prix Vermeille as a straight match between France’s Blue Rose Cen and Ireland’s Warm Heart, but there is much more to it than that.

It is a race with a recent history of shocks and there is a distinct possibility that the big two will be turned over.

Blue Rose Cen could easily be coming here on the verge of a sixth successive victory, looking like the best three-year-old in the world.

Instead, the intricacies of Goodwood racecourse caught out her rider, Aurelien Lemaitre, and she had to settle for fourth place in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes having been boxed in against the inside rail.

Now Christopher Head’s dual classic heroine steps up to a mile and a half for the first time in her career, and my suspicion is that this daughter of Churchill, who showed so much speed in both of those triumphs and many of her other races, may be racing over a trip that does not allow her to show her usual brilliance.

Take advantage

Aidan O’Brien’s Warm Heart could well be the one to take advantage. The combination of a mile and four furlongs and fast ground, exactly what she encountered when posting a personal best in winning the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, should be perfect for her.

However, the Master of Ballydoyle has never won this prestigious event and has provided its beaten favourite in each of the last two years, including when Snowfall was knocked off her perch at odds of 1/5 in 2021.

The search for alternatives has to include consideration of the second Irish representative, Joseph O’Brien’s Above The Curve, who has been incredibly consistent in top level fillies’ races for more than a year now and could improve for this first try at beyond a mile and two furlongs since the Cheshire Oaks in May last year.

Meli Melo is a recent Group 2 winner whose trainer, Francis Graffard, is coming back into form and I remain convinced that Pensee Du Jour has a big one in her: expect her to be ridden much more positively here than on her comeback last time.

But both of this pair surely need an unforecast storm to hit the Bois du Boulogne as they are ideally suited by testing ground.

So preference is for the unheralded Seabhac filly, Rue Boissonade, who has been aimed at this race all season long by her talented trainer Mikel Delzangles and has had a nice rest since landing the Group 2 Prix de Malleret in mid July.

SELECTION: RUE BOISSONADE

Next Best: Warm Heart

3.25 Qatar Prix Niel (Group 2) (3yo) 1m 4f

The Qatar Prix Niel is often little more than a slowly run exhibition race with everyone keen to keep their powder dry for the Arc in three weeks’ time. Not this year.

A field of eight features runners from four countries, a pacemaker in King Of Records to ensure a true test, and three different Group 1 winners. Baden-Baden’s loss when the Deutsches Derby winner Fantastic Moon was scratched at the last minute from last Sunday’s Grosser Preis because of perceived overwatering is ParisLongchamp’s gain and, with Goldenas also lining up, means that the Niel will feature the Derby winners from both Germany and Italy.

Aidan O’Brien is represented by Greenland, already successful in a Parisian Group 3 at Saint-Cloud in May and now stepping up to a mile and four furlongs for the first time, something that can also be said for Marhaba Ya Sanafi, the winner of the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains and an excellent third in the France’s own Derby equivalent, the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club.

However, I expect all of that quartet to be eclipsed by Feed The Flame, who may have been three-quarters of a length behind Marhaba Ya Sanafi in the Jockey Club but was chronically lacking in experience on just his third lifetime start that day.

Since successful when upped to this distance in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris, he runs in the same Jean-Louis Bouchard silks as King Of Records.

SELECTION: FEED THE FLAME

Next Best: Fantastic Moon

1.33 Qatar Prix Foy (Group 2) (4yo+) 1m 4f

Iresine, who is a gelding so is barred from being allowed to line up in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on October 1st, should take the other ‘Arc Trial’, the Qatar Prix Foy, by defeating last year’s Group 1 Prix de l’Opera winner, Place Du Carrousel, who returned to form when landing last month’s Group 3 Prix Gontaut-Viron.

Iresine has built up a fantastic partnership with jockey Marie Velon which has seen them twice prevail in Group 1 company as well as win this race 12 months ago.

If you are willing to take a short price about a repeat, a couple of notes of caution: Iresine’s trainer Jean-Pierre Gauvin is convinced that his stable star does not like hot weather and was also thinking that the Foy would come too soon following a training setback until Iresine suddenly came to himself in the last week or so.

SELECTION: IRESINE

Next Best: Place Du Caroussel

On the Longchamp undercard, Aidan O’Brien runs the recent Dundalk winner Hispanic against six locally-trained sprinters in the Group 3 Qatar Prix de Petit Couvert over six furlongs and the three-times Group 1 third Breizh Sky takes on the defending champion Fang in an 10-runner renewal of the Group 3 Qatar Prix du Pin over seven furlongs.