IT’S that time of year again. The first Saturday in May. The Kentucky Derby.
As always, we bring you “Why he’ll win and why he won’t” for the 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
And as always, we look ahead and we look back. Last year’s comment? Rich Strike: Why he’ll win. In a world asunder, it just makes sense that a $30,000 claim, waiting to get in the race, shocks the world.
The forgotten horse breaking from the outside post did indeed shock the world with an inside move that turned the Derby on its head.
And that is why they run the races.
Enjoy.
1. Hit Show
Brad Cox/Manny Franco
Why he’ll win. Brad Cox is winning at 28 percent and it’s just a matter of time before he wins a Derby.
Why he won’t win. The inside post in the Derby can feel like a sock on high heat.
2. Verifying
Brad Cox/Tyler Gaffalione
Why he’ll win. Like father like son.
Why he won’t win. Son of Triple Crown winner Justify has yet to win a stakes in four tries.
3. Two Phil’s
Larry Rivelli/Jareth Loveberry
Why he’ll win. In a race that gets hot on the front, the always-closing colt could pick up the pieces.
Why he won’t win. Grammar police.
4. Confidence Game
Keith Desormeaux/James Graham
Why he’ll win. Because we need a good Irishman to win the Derby and who would deserve it more than the likeable journeyman James Graham?
Why he won’t win. He hasn’t run since winning the Rebel in February.
5. Tapit Trice
Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez
Why he’ll win. The $1.3 million yearling rolls into this on a four-race win streak, including the Grade 1 Blue Grass April 8, and he’s got Pletcher and Saez in his corner.
Why he won’t win. Pletcher has two others…
6. Kingsbarns
Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz
Why he’ll win. Undefeated in three starts with tactical speed to carve a handhold early and enough stamina to stay locked onto that grip late.
Why he won’t win. Gets caught too close to a hot pace.
7. Reincarnate
Tim Yakteen/John Velazquez
Why he’ll win. John Velazquez is still the most definitive rider in the game.
Why he won’t win. When trained by Bob Baffert, he took four tries to break his maiden.
With Tim Yakteen, he’s 0-for-2 behind Derby starters Angel of Empire, King Russell and Confidence Game.
8. Mage
Gustavo Delgado/Javier Castellano
Why he’ll win. Talented, low-mileage colt who could be improving. Hall of Famer Javier Castellano has every big race on his plaque except for the Derby.
Why he won’t win. Just three races under his belt and has yet to stave off Forte.
9. Skinner - Scratched.
10. Practical Move - Scratched.
11. Disarm
Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario
Why he’ll win. Rosario can stop, start, stop, start, stop start without his horse knowing it. And, hey, Asmussen has to win a Derby, right?
Why he won’t win. Another one with just a maiden win to his credit.
12. Jace’s Road
Brad Cox/Florent Geroux
Why he’ll win. See Hit Show.
Why he won’t win. Faded behind Kingsbarns and Disarm in his most recent start.
13. Sun Thunder
Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.
Why he’ll win. No pressure at 50/1, patient jockey, he can drop out the back and hope for a pace meltdown.
Why he won’t. Adding blinkers for the biggest race of a career is never a sign of strength.
14. Angel Of Empire
Brad Cox/Flavien Prat
Why he’ll win. The best of Cox’s battalion, the son of Classic Empire closed ground relentlessly to win the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby.
Why he won’t. Traffic.
15. Forte
Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.
Why he’ll win. The champion 2-year-old toyed with rivals last season and has tacked on the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby this year. In the latter, the son of Violence overcame post 11 of 12 to reel in Mage and Cyclone Mischief.
Why he won’t. Seems to have gotten slower, albeit still winning, as a three-year-old.
16. Raise Cain
Ben Colebrook/Gerardo Corrales
Why he’ll win. Applied wrong tactics in the Blue Grass. His seven and a half-length Gotham route in March was impressive.
Why he won’t. Drawing a line through the final Derby prep is dangerous territory.
17. Derma Sotogake
Hidetaka Otonashi/Christophe Lemaire
Why he’ll win. Dominated rivals in the UAE Derby at a mile, a furlong and a half, his third win when stretching to a mile and furlong or further. And, hey, it’s just a matter of time before the Japanese win the Derby.
Why he won’t. The UAE Derby curse?
18. Rocket Can
Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado
Why he’ll win. Bill Mott.
Why he won’t win. Another one tinkering with the equipment right before the curtain opens.
Beyond that, the grey colt couldn’t handle Angel Of Empire, King Russell, Reincarnate and Forte in previous two starts.
19. Lord Miles - Scratched.
20. Continuar - Scratched
21. Cyclone Mischief
Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie
Why he’ll win. Drew into race after scratch of Practical Move. See notes on Rich Strike.
Why he won’t win. Two-time winner has finished behind Rocket Can (twice), Forte (twice) and Mage in previous three starts.
22. Mandarin Hero
Terunobu Fujita/Kazushi Kimura
Why he’ll win. Drew into race after scratches of Practical Move and Lord Miles. See notes on Rich Strike. See notes on Japan. And, actually, watch his effort in the Santa Anita Derby when he finished second. That was solid.
Why he won’t. Last year we wrote, He’s only just got in the race…what a story. Yeah, what a story.
23. King Russell
Ron Moquett/Rafael Bejarano
Why he’ll win. Shrewd trainer. Solid breeding. Could be rounding into form. If he gets in the race.
Why he won’t. Well, just a few hours ago, we thought he needed three scratches just to get in the race. Now, it’s down to one.
1 Angel of Empire
2 Forte
3 Rocket Can
4 Two Phil’s
Sky Sports and Racing TV are showing the full evening’s racing.
Coverage will be on RTV Extra so you can watch on TV too (providing you have a Smart TV with the RTV app, Firestick, Apple TV etc).