2.10 Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 148yds
Daddy Long Legs: Smart hurdler when bringing his ‘A’ game, as seen when bolting up in a Punchestown Festival handicap hurdle off 135 last spring. Can be hit and miss, however, and bulk of his form suggests he’s a step below the highest level.
No Looking Back: Some useful form as a novice hurdler in 2022/’23. Probably better than his mark of 132 but up against it in this company.
Sir Gerhard: Won three Grade 1s across 2021 and 2022 but form in recent times is not of that standard. Tailed off behind State Man when last seen here at the Punchestown Festival in May, though that run coming off a quick turnaround and he’s got a reasonable record fresh.
Smooth Tom: Effective dual-purpose performer unseated at the third in Down Royal Grade 3 won by Brighterdaysahead earlier this month when a 33/1 shot. Rating of 130 means he’s in deep water.
State Man: National Hunt racing’s ‘Mr Reliable’. Since falling on his debut for Willie Mullins, he’s won 12 of his 13 starts, including 10 Grade 1s. The reigning champion hurdler’s only defeat in that period came at the hands of an on-song Constitution Hill at Cheltenham in 2023. Two new and dangerous rivals to contend with now in the shape of Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead. Sets the standard but can’t afford to be too far below his best on first start of the season.
Winter Fog: Admirable 10-year-old could earn a share of the prize money but needs a clear career-best to trouble the main contenders.
Brighterdaysahead: Officially rated 3lb inferior to Lossiemouth as she makes her first start in open Grade 1 company. Always held in the highest regard by connections and Aintree Festival heroine was pretty much faultless last season, barring defeat in a tactical Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham as 5/6 favourite. Has the advantage of a recent run, having returned with something to work on at Down Royal three weeks ago, and this run will likely reveal much about her Champion Hurdle prospects. Needs to improve to match the top Mullins pair, but progression is very much possible.
Lossiemouth: NON-RUNNER (sore foot) Four-time Grade 1 winner was flawless in 2023/’24, confirming herself to be potentially Champion Hurdle class win winning the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Appears as though she will get her shot at that title this term and is even ante-post favourite with some firms. Looks the biggest threat that State Man has ever faced in Ireland. However, Paul Townend remains loyal to the tried-and-tested gelding.
Conclusion
Only Hurricane Fly and Limestone Lad have managed to win three Morgiana Hurdles in modern times, so State Man is on the cusp of history here. He’s in for a serious test from Brighterdaysahead, but his experience of top-table two-mile contests ought to stand him in excellent stead and he gets the nod.