Newbury Saturday
1.50 William Hill Top Price
Guarantee Handicap Hurdle
3m 52y
Imagine my surprise when googling racehorse owner and former Weymouth Football Club Chairman Chris Pugsley to find out that his wife (or ex-wife) is called Shirley. That might explain, but hardly condones, Pugsley’s decision to name one of his horses Shutupshirley. Rude it may be, but the eight-year-old could give Pugsley the opportunity to explain his reasoning on TV as he looks the likeliest winner of this staying handicap having defied a two-year absence to score at Fontwell on Boxing Day.
That win made it three in a row for the Robert Walford-trained gelding and the style of that win suggests he can stay ahead of the handicapper despite stepping up in class now.
Tiny Tetley is feared most having not been seen to best effect at Haydock last time. Despite winning at Taunton two starts back, he looks like a stiffer track will suit better, and is the one to save on in an admittedly competitive handicap.
2.25 William Hill Bet10 Get10 On Racing Denman Chase (Grade 2) 2m 7f 86y
This is one of those races where you start at the top and say “nope” to each runner in turn before finding you’ve ruled them all out. Bravemansgame is the class act in here but his form has been gradually regressive since a career-best effort to chase hope Galopin Des Champs in the 2023 Gold Cup. He’s got a fine record at Newbury, winning on all three starts at the track, and perhaps a tongue-tie will help him finish better, but it takes a small leap of faith to back a horse with his profile.
I have stamina doubts about several of these, and resolution doubts about others (I see you Hitman), while Sam Brown and Eldorado Allen are sprightly veterans, but veterans all the same. I keep circling back to the favourite, but I feel that this is a race best watched.
3.00 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) 2m 92y
The defection of Sir Gino opens the Game Spirit right up, and two of the runners have featured in my occasional eye-catchers feature, so I need to pick between them. Edwardstone is no back number as his consistent efforts this season show, but tactics are important to him, and Alan King seems to have abandoned the front-running approach that saw him destroy his rivals in this race 12 months ago.
He can win again of reverting to that run-style, but I can’t risk it, and preference is for Matata, who will definitely go forward, but showed he doesn’t have to dominate when producing a career best at Windsor last time. With a BHA rating of 155, Matata had to give lumps of weight away to his rivals over two miles at Windsor and won by 10 lengths, eased down from the final fence.
He is normally a front runner, and disappointed when unable to dominate at Aintree last spring but looked an improved performer for taking a lead here, tracking Editeur Du Gite before cruising to the front at the eighth of the 12 obstacles.
Despite being heavily eased, Matata still posted a solid time figure for this win and deserves full credit for the improvement shown, accepting that the track at Windsor favours those with a high cruising speed.
If Edwardstone leads, Matata will be happy to track him, but will certainly get the run of the race if King’s Veteran is again ridden patiently. Either way, it points to victory for the younger horse.
3.35 William Hill Hurdle
(Premier Handicap) 2m 69y
Lots to consider in a fiendishly difficult race. Josh The Boss could bounce back to form after he got stuck in the mud at Haydock last time, and while rain on Friday tempers my confidence, I’m sticking with him for reasons stated previously. That Haydock run followed an excellent effort to win the competitive Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow in October and that form has worked out tremendously well.
Josh The Boss was put up 7lb for winning by four lengths at Chepstow and while first impressions are that the handicapper has taken charge based on his Haydock defeat, the collateral form from Chepstow says different, and I’m happy to take another chance on the Twiston-Davies gelding with conditions more suitable here. A whole host of those who finished behind him at Chepstow have won since, and the way it has worked out suggests that his rise for winning isn’t enough to stop him from scoring from his revised mark, and this race in particular has tended to favour those who race on the pace.
Warwick Saturday
2.05 Unibet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 54y
Rubaud actually outjumped both Sir Gino and Ballyburn in the early stages of the Wayward Lad at Kempton, and he should make a classy chaser, but he stopped alarmingly quickly before crashing out at the last fence there, and this my be needed for confidence. L’Eau Du Sud has impressed in winning all three starts over fences to date, and his defeat of Touch Me Not in the Henry VIII last time has been franked by the runner-up, who made Majborough work to land the Irish Arkle last weekend.
2.40 Read Nicky Henderson’s Weekly Unibet Blog Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) 2m 5f
It’s hard to look past Gala Marceau here with the vibes regarding her fitness being very positive and she ought to have little trouble disposing of the out-of-form West Balboa and You Wear It Well, who has gone the wrong way over fences.
In fact, I’m so negative about that pair that I’d be inclined to back Royale Margaux to finish second given she comes here after several solid efforts and is the type who – while hard to win with – has the ability to outrun her odds in a higher class contest.
3.15 Unibet Middle Distance
Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase 2m 4f
Fugitif is expected to take up his entry in the Denman Chase instead of taking this more suitable option, and that makes Shakem Up’arry look a cracking bet based on his win in the Festival Plate at Cheltenham last March.
Shakem Up’arry is a bold jumper whose fall at Cheltenham last time was most unlike him, and he had jumped with his usual fluency until crashing out at the sixth. That looks an aberration, and I would expect the fences at Warwick to bring out the best in him, while his rivals all have some thing to prove.
Editeur Du Gite doesn’t stay, and Le Milos hasn’t won since the 2022 Ladbrokes Trophy; he looks like a horses who has had his issues of late, too, and he is much too short on what he’s shown in recent times.
Grandad’s Cottage ran poorly at Market Rasen last time and headgear is now tried, which looks like desperation, and Quel Destin simply looks gone at the game. Straw Fan Jack won’t run (pu at Kempton on Friday), Smarty Wild needs to go right-handed on better ground and Whistleinthedark seems to have regressed badly. All in all, this looks there for the taking for ‘Arry.
Recommended
Matata 3.00 Newbury – 1pt win 2/1 (general)
Josh The Boss 3.35 Newbury – 1pt e/w 22/1 (Hills Ladbrokes – 5 places)
Shakem Up’arry 3.15 Warwick – 2pts win 9/2 (general)