York Saturday
1:50 Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) 1m 177y
There is little doubt that Enfjaar is up to landing a pattern race, but he could be overbet here, with his defeat in the Chesterfield Cup noted as unlucky in many quarters; the fact remains that he’s stepping up from handicaps with his best form over slightly further and off a strong gallop, so he could be vulnerable here, and makes limited appeal at the early odds.
Alyanaabi appears the choice of Jim Crowley over Enfjaar, but Jack Mitchell won on the latter in the John Smith’s Cup here so there may be less in that than meets the eye. The issue with Alyanaabi is whether he will stay nine furlongs, and he certainly failed for stamina over a mile and a quarter last time.
See The Fire has lost her last five races, but those defeats were all in Group 1 company and she will find this company less troublesome having run a career best when beaten a diminishing neck by Opera Singer in the Nassau Stakes last time. She is unexposed beyond a mile and should continue to progress now she’s found her level.
2:25 Sky Bet Melrose Handicap 1m 5f 188y
Further rain would be a minor concern for Dramatic Star given he improved to win his maiden on quick ground at Hamilton, but he’s sure to be suited by the step up to a mile and three-quarters and didn’t get a chance to prove that point when one of several horses who lost their footing at Haydock seven weeks ago.
I recall tipping him up that day and specifically mentioning that the Melrose looked to be his ideal target in the short-term, so it may prove a blessing in disguise that he can get into the race without showing his hand to the handicapper.
Dramatic Star took time to get on top at Hamilton for his maiden win over a mile and three furlongs but was notably strong in the last furlong and should have learnt something from that success, having still looked green for much of the contest.
He only made his debut at the end of April and is clearly a work in progress, so I’d be disappointed if he didn’t have a fair bit more to offer for his in-form stable.
3:00 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 2) 7f
I’ve called Audience a few names but it cannot be denied that the gelding has grown past his role as lead horse to Inspiral and while once inclined to ruin his chance by over-racing, he has shown this season that he deserves top billing in races like this.
He did get the run of things in the Lockinge, but a defeat of Charyn there reads well given the runner-up has added the Queen Anne and the Prix Jacques Le Marois to his CV subsequently.
The one worry with Audience has been that he needs to get a solo to show his best form, but he disproved that at Goodwood last time when he and Art Power hooked up in a speed duel, with Audience showing no sign of cracking and a significant part of that win in the Lennox Stakes is that he also showed that he no longer needs a hood to restrain his forward-going tendencies.
That suggests he could do better still and he is a confident choice to confirm Lennox form with Art Power and Kinross.
3:35 Sky Bet Ebor Handicap 1m 5f 188y
My Mate Mozzie and Magical Zoe were my ante-post picks for the Ebor and of the two, I feel the former has fared better with the draw, with Magical Zoe likely to have to rely on luck to get a clear passage from the inside stall (assuming the field doesn’t come to the stands’ side in the straight, which is possible, but more likely on softer ground).
My Mate Mozzie hasn’t always been a punters’ pal in that he often looks like winning big races on the flat and over jumps but doesn’t always finish off as strongly as he travels up, and that will put many off.
On the other hand, he has contested seven handicaps with 16+ runners in the past two years and has rewarded each-way support every time, so he’s cost his backers nothing in that time.
In my view, My Mate Mozzie tends to have his stamina stretched either by testing ground or by tracks with stiff finishes, and it’s unlucky that his big targets have been at the likes of Galway where he’s vulnerable on the final climb.
He’s best away from the mud and with a run under his belt and his lifetime record on yielding or faster with eight weeks of a previous run reads: 2128231313, with the only unplaced run coming when eighth of 24 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.
This trip on the flat is ideal, and if he’s ridden forward, which suits him, he should again make the frame, while I live in hope that he can yet end his wait for a big handicap win.
4:10 Sky Bet Constantine Handicap 6f
It seems pertinent, in the absence of conflicting evidence, to stick with low draws here, and that means Dare To Hope, who had been unlucky a couple of times with the draw before his well-backed win in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last weekend.
He ran well when fourth here to Rage Of Bamby in late July from stall 13 in a race where the two lowest stalls provided the exacta.
Dare To Hope got lucky with the draw at Ripon last weekend and appears to have done so again today with stall three to work from. He’s been raised 6lb for the Great St Wilfrid, but that looks fair considering how competitive that race was, and he is taken to stay a step ahead of the handicapper after than comfortable success.
4:45 Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) 5f
Another big field on the straight track and the one who stands out immediately is Tropical Storm, who was responsible for the suicidal pace in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and can be forgiven his disappointing effort for that reason.
He showed bright speed to lead The Strikin Viking until approaching the furlong pole at Goodwood, and the drop back to the minimum trip is clearly what he requires. A draw in stall one of 17 could hardly have been kinder on what we saw earlier in the week, and he rates a decent bet on the strength of his fine second in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot on his penultimate start.
Dramatic Star 2:25 York – 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 (SkyBet - 6 places; 7/1 Hills - 5 places)
Audience 3:00 York – 2pts win @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
My Mate Mozzie 3:35 York – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Coral - 5 places, 14/1 general)
Tropical Storm 4:45 York – 2pts win @ 4/1 (Hills, 7/2 general)