Aintree Saturday
1:30 Pertemps Network
Handicap Hurdle 3m 149y
Harbour Lake didn’t take to chasing, but is a useful hurdler in conditions, and both runs over this trip on good ground have seen him placed behind the progressive Zain Nights at Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring.
He remains on a fair mark and can go well fresh, so looks a solid selection with trainer Alan King among the winners in recent days.
2:05 Boylesports Choose Wisely Handicap Chase 1m 7f 176y
Imperial Saint made all here last time, but didn’t look suited to cutting out his own pace and I’d expect him to tuck in behind here, with any number of his rivals desperate to get to the front here.
That should ensure a fast pace and the selection is expected to settle better as a result, while his stamina for further should ensure he keeps going when others have cried enough.
2:40 Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase 2m 5f 19y
Frero Banbou is very well-handicapped on the form he showed in this race last year, when just outstayed on heavy ground. He lost his way in the spring, but with Venetia Williams quickly finding stride with her handicap chasers this autumn, a return to form looks on the cards and, while hard to win with, he’s hard to ignore from a handicapping perspective.
At a bigger price, I think that old rogue Harper’s Brook will run well for new trainer Dan Skelton.
He hates Cheltenham, and has never beaten a rival there, so his poor run in the Grand Annual is easy to forgive.
His lifetime record outside the Cotswolds reads 13142121221 and, while he can down tools, throwing away at least two more wins by idling badly at Sandown and Ascot in the last couple of seasons, he appeals as likely to enjoy this unusual test and could surprise for a yard which is thriving at present.
Wincanton Saturday
13:09 BetMGM Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase 2m 4f 35y
A race-fit Tedley just got the better of Choosethenews at Wetherby last week, but the second shaped better to my eyes and the winner will find things tougher after a 6lb rise. Duke Of Luckley is also 6lb higher than winning a modest contest at Sedgefield and is opposable off his new mark.
Killer Kane has been a bit disappointing in recent times, but finds himself in a winnable contest here, and the fitting of blinkers could be the key to him.
Backing all Oscar’s offspring in first-time blinkers is a profitable policy, with 15 winners from 91 runners providing a profit of £568.90 to a tenner stake at Betfair SP.
Joe Tizzard has a 27% strike-rate when fitting the headgear for the first time, which adds to confidence.
Killer Kane shaped well for a long way on his return at Kempton, briefly looking the likeliest winner, and he will strip fitter for that.
If there was ever a time to back him, it’s now.
13:45 BetMGM Richard
Barber Memorial Mares’
Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f 82y
Pretending has plenty of weight here, but Lucy Wadham’s mare keeps improving and had more in hand than the winning margin when beating Tamar Bridge at Uttoxeter last time. She has won on heavy, but is particularly well-suited by good going and has never finished out of the places on a sound surface. This is her stiffest task to date, but she is expected to give another good account.
Good Look Charm was placed several times in top-end handicap hurdles at around this trip last season and has fallen to a fair mark after an excusable defeat in the mud at Wetherby when last seen and she appeals as a value alternative to the market leader, for all she’s fully exposed.
15:30 63rd Badger Beer Handicap Chase 3m 1f 30y
This looks a competitive contest, but with Anthony Honeyball in such good form, I fancy him to land the prize for the second year in a row with the very likeable Forward Plan. A winner at Doncaster last December, he shaped best when just failing to catch the enterprisingly ridden Annual Invictus in the Great Yorkshire Chase there in January.
He looked beaten at the last in the Coral Trophy at Kempton next time, but produced an irresistible surge to go from fourth to first at the line, looking for all the world like a stiffer test would bring more improvement and he again shaped very well, when third to Cruz Control at Aintree in April.
The type to thrive on his racing, he is taken to progress again as his stamina is drawn out and this looks a good starting point for the season.
Doncaster Saturday
1:20 Livescore Bet Wentworth Stakes (Listed) 6f 2y
Zoum Zoum is unbeaten in October and November, having won all three starts after a late beginning as a juvenile last term. He looked like he might lose his way in the summer, but has bounced right back to his best after a break, winning over course and distance on his handicap bow last time from the well-treated The X O.
A repetition of that will see him go very close and, while a draw in stall 1 could be problematic, he has hold-up horses to his immediate right and given his pressing style, he should soon gain a positive track position.
3:10 Virgin Bet Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) 1m 2f 43y
It should pay to give another chance to the exciting Estrange, who made such a big impression on her belated debut at Goodwood in August.
She is out of a half-sister to St Leger winner Logician from a stellar family, which includes Cityscape, Bated Breath and Xaar, so it was hardly a surprise to see her win easily on her belated debut.
To put the race into context, the form standard was set by a pair rated 78 and, while that may seem to limit the form, it has since been boosted by next-time-out wins for the third and fourth, the latter now rated 88.
For Estrange to win by five and a half lengths on the bridle while displaying a rounded action, suggests she should be a high-class performer in the mud.
It was a bit of a surprise to see Estrange turned out quickly in the John Musker Stakes at Yarmouth on much quicker ground on her next start and she was unplaced, albeit not getting anything like the run of the race.
That represented improvement on paper, but I’m sure there’s a much bigger effort in her on softer ground, and she gets a chance to prove that point here.
3:45 Virgin Bet November
Handicap 1m 3f 197y
A tough contest as always, but Ed Bethell may hold the key. Chillingham is the pick, having had several of these in arrears when chasing home Not So Sleepy at Newbury last time in testing ground.
That was an improvement on his Ebor effort under a change of tactics and I expect him to be ridden patiently again by Callum Rodriguez.
He’s had a stop-start season, but looks as good as ever and is 1lb lower than he was at this time last year, so is expected to go well.
Bethell also has Minstrel Knight in the field and the three-year-old is thriving on soft ground, winning mile and three-quarter handicaps at Haydock and Yarmouth.
He is drawn wide here, but that is historically an advantage here, when the ground is testing, and is rated as the main danger.
Harper’s Brook 2:40 Aintree – 1pt e/w 14/1 (Bet365, 12/1 Hills - 4 places)
Killer Kane 1:09 Wincanton – 1pt win 11/2 (general)
Forward Plan 3:30 Wincanton – 2pts win 9/1 (general)
Estrange 3:10 Doncaster – 1pt win 6/1 (general)
Chillingham 3:45 Doncaster – 1pt e/w 12/1 (general – 5 places)