Ascot Saturday

1.15 Howden Handicap Chase 2m 2f 175y

Venetia Williams has a remarkable record with her chasers at Ascot in recent times, with 18 runners in 2023 and 2024 yielding nine winners, when the market expectation has been for between three and four. In short, that means punters having a tenner on all her runners in that period would be up by £448.10 at Betfair SP and £369.10 at bookmakers’ Starting Price.

Williams saddles Galop De Chassehere and, while the gelding was a length behind Scarface over slightly further at Newbury last time, he’s taken to turn the tables here, with the track and trip likely to suit him.

He’s not quite got home after travelling strongly on both starts this season and is best judged on his defeat of recent Coral Gold Cup winner Kandoo Kid at Newbury last November, after which he was sidelined for a year. Normally, the horses from his yard are at their best after a break, but Galop de Chasse has given the impression on both runs this autumn that he’s building up to something bigger.

1.50 Howden Graduation Chase 2m 5f 8y

Iroko is an obvious enough favourite here, given the promise of his light campaign as a novice and his encouraging second to Trelawne on his return, but the best horse in this race is surely Jungle Boogie, who travelled as well as anything in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March before his stamina ran out in the home straight.

Jungle Boogie jumped superbly that day until pitching on landing at the third-last fence and was still on the bridle turning for home, only for his early exuberance to take its toll.

He still ran with great credit and had previously won the Savill’s New Year’s Chase at Tramore over this trip, which looks his ideal. He’s clearly had his issues over the years to have been so lightly raced, but he is a high-class performer when fit and should make a bold bid to win here.

2.25 Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 97y

If the overnight rain gets into the ground, I’d be a little concerned, but if it stays close to the official description of good to soft on the hurdles track, then it’s very hard to see past Strong Leader, who has the best form on offer.

A sketchy jumper at times, he has his own way about crossing a flight, but seems to have adapted well to that style and minor errors at the last two flights in the Liverpool Hurdle in April did little to check his momentum. He holds Hiddenvalley Lake, Botox Has and Crambo on that run and has little to fear from the others on official figures.

Strong Leader improved with racing last year, but made the perfect start to the new season when winning the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last month from Monmiral and he looked like he would come on for that run, which would again make him hard to beat.

The only concern would be if the rain expected at Ascot was heavier than expected, as I believe that Strong Leader is at his best on good or yielding ground and this good mover could be inconvenienced by a proper slog, which this race can become in such conditions.

3.00 Howden Silver Cup

Handicap Chase 2m 7f 180y

Victtorino is the obvious candidate here, bearing in mind he won this race last year and is just 1lb higher and he was a big eyecatcher in the Coral Gold Cup last time, coming home strongly to grab a place having jumped stickily to get himself detached in the first place. That is the concern with him, however, in that he rarely goes through a race over fences without a mistake, and he’s a short enough price with that in mind.

The Changing Man is hardly foot-perfect himself and he should have won the Rehearsal Chase last time, but for landing flat-footed at the last fence when going best. He was beaten only by a very well-handicapped rival at Newcastle, however, with the pair a long way clear of some reliable yardsticks, and a 5lb rise won’t be enough to stop him from winning again, for all he must show more fluency when it matters. Sam Twiston-Davies takes over and I think his style of riding will suit the Changing Man, who remains open to improvement over fences – indeed, he still retains his maiden status in this code, despite his high level of ability.

3.35 Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle 1m 7f 152y

A useful sort over hurdles and on the flat for Noel Meade, Black Hawk Eagle won twice for Kerry Lee last winter in the style of a smart handicapper, before running unaccountably badly when heavily supported for the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso. He’s returned from that poor effort with two in-frame efforts in handicaps, but I think he can do better still.

At Wincanton on Boxing Day, Black Hawk Eagle won a modest handicap hurdle from Georgi Girl with something to spare and that form has been franked by the runner-up, who has won three times since and is now rated 22lb higher. He was even more impressive next time at Hereford, when Richard Patrick didn’t need to do anything but change his hands for the son of Awtaad to win well.

Raised 6lb to a new mark of 122, Black Hawk Eagle was clearly not right at Kelso and his stable was clearly under a cloud at the time. In fact, the usually ultra-consistent Lee stable went without a winner between the start of March until a week ago, when New Found Fame won at Bangor. That gives hope that the horses have turned a corner and, while a repeat of his latest second to the well-treated Norman Fletcher at Huntingdon gives him place claims, I’d hope that the six-year-old might be capable of taking another step forward under conditions that suit.

Haydock Saturday

2.05 Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase 3m 1f 125y

Conditions will be testing at Haydock, but that won’t be a concern for Famous Bridge, who won this race last year and looked as good as ever when three lengths second of seven to Elvis Mail at Kelso on his return eight weeks ago. He has top-weight of 12 stone to carry here, but his mark of 137 is just 2lb higher than when he won 12 months ago and he’s expected to go very close in his bid for back-to-back successes.

Recommended

Jungle Boogie 1.50 Ascot – 2pts win @ 7/2 (general)

Strong Leader 2.25 Ascot – 2pts win @ 9/4 (general)

The Changing Man 3.00 Ascot – 1pt win @ 9/2 (general)

Black Hawk Eagle 3.35 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (BetVictor, Boyles, Coral – 4 places)