Ascot Saturday

1.30 Ascot Underwriting

Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase 2m 2f 175y

It’s well-established now that the Paul Nicholls string is not in great form, with just three winners since September, but while Nicky Henderson is getting winners at present - four from his last 20 runners to be precise - more of his runners in recent weeks have pulled up and that isn’t an encouraging sign either.

On the other hand, Ben Pauling is in fine form and four of his five winners this month have been ridden by Ben Jones, suggesting that of his pair here, it’s Leader In The Park who is expected to deliver the goods.

The son of Walk In The Park was a winner over hurdles at Doncaster in February, but as a half-brother to smart chaser Benefficient, it’s over fences that he’s likely to excel and he was bought for £250,000, after winning his only start between the flags.

Pauling didn’t leave him long over the smaller obstacles and he looks the sort to progress this season, with a mark of 121 looking more than fair as he switches to fences for the first time under Rules.

2.05 Byrne Group Handicap Chase 2m 167y

It was this time last year that Venetia Williams awoke from her traditional summer slumber to start producing winners in handicap chases, and she ended November 2023 with the remarkable figure of 13 winners from 37 runners in a five-week period from the end of October to the beginning of December, those wins coming in handicaps alone. That was not unprecedented, and the Herefordshire trainer campaigns her horses in the same way every season.

The old adage “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” springs to mind and, although Venetia’s first runner of the autumn could finish only fourth when gambled at Bangor on Wednesday, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t back such runners blind once more. Martator isn’t hard to find here, having won his last three in handicaps in the spring, and it will be a surprise if he isn’t cherry-ripe after an absence here.

3.15 Lavazza Handicap Hurdle 1m 7f 152y

Backing all Henry Daly’s hurdlers blind this autumn won’t have made you rich, but the horses have been running better than that bare metric implies, particularly those returning from a break, with Wyenot winning at Cheltenham last week.

Roaring Home was another winner returning from a break at Exeter a few weeks ago and several others have run up to their best in defeat.

Daly saddles the strong-travelling Jour d’Evasion here and the unexposed son of Cokoriko is taken to cause a minor surprise.

He was pulled up after making a bad mistake at Huntingdon on his penultimate start, but was in the frame on all his other starts last term, winning at Daly’s local track Ludlow in February. He found Hereford’s two miles sharp enough, when third to Insurrection and Maasai Mara on his final start and that looked a strong contest for the track.

Schmilsson, second to Jour d’Evasion at Ludlow, was a winner off a mark of 114 at Wetherby a fortnight ago and the selection’s opening mark of 112 looks very fair on balance.

He looks the sort to progress again this season and, while others have their claims in an open handicap, 20/1 looks too big about him at a track which should suit.

3.45 Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2m 7f 180y

Amirite ran poorly in the Kerry National, but he was unsuited by the soft going there and looks fairly treated back on good ground.

When racing on ground described by Timeform as good, he’s won two of his three starts and finished a good fifth in the Bet365 Gold Cup on the other.

He did too much too soon when beaten in the Galway Plate two starts back and is on the same mark as when just outstayed from the last fence at Sandown in the spring.

The cheekpieces he’s worn when below par on his last couple of starts are now removed and he should get back to his best with conditions in his favour.

Henry de Bromhead dominated a similar race to this at Cheltenham last weekend and has saddled seven winners from 26 runners in the past fortnight at the time of writing.

His strike-rate with chasers in October was over 30% all told, and the positives far outweigh the negatives with Amirite, who hasn’t won in a while, but is still just an eight-year-old with 14 career starts under his belt.

Wetherby Saturday

1.50 Bet365 Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) 2m

Luccia is clearly the one to beat, but concerns about the overall form of the Henderson yard put me off her at a skinny price and I prefer the claims of Take No Chances for the thriving Dan Skelton team.

The selection has 8lb to find on adjusted ratings, but comes here on the back of a creditable five and three-quarter lengths third of 17 to Josh The Boss in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow last time, coping well with a drop back to two miles, three and a half furlongs and giving weight to those around her under an inexperienced claimer.

That effort more than confirmed the improvement she had shown in the spring and was backed up by the clock.

Take No Chances stays three miles well, but she coped well with the shorter trip last time and, although this is very much a minimum, she arrives in excellent heart and looks capable of further improvement.

She’ll struggle to cope with Luccia if that mare is at her best, but can take advantage if that mare is below form in any way.

2.22 Bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (West Yorkshire Hurdle) 3m 26y

It’s slightly surprising to see Sandor Clegane returning over hurdles, given he showed very useful form over fences last season and remains a maiden in that sphere, but the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time suggests that he’s not here just to clear his lungs before a return to chasing. He was a high-class staying novice hurdler in 2022/23, finishing third in Grade 1s at the Dublin Racing Festival and at Cheltenham in the spring, so there is an air of unfinished business about him as a hurdler.

Kateira is the obvious danger and won’t lack for fitness on her first run since April, but Sandor Clegane is just preferred in a race the pair should dominate.

2.58 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) 3m 45y

Bravemansgame is surely one to take on at a short price in the Charlie Hall, the myth of his flawless jumping shown up in this race last year and, while he’s a likeable type who always gives his running, he’s been beaten on his last seven starts and doesn’t deserve to be 6/4.

Conflated has the best piece of form on offer having split Jonbon and Protektorat at Aintree in April.

He is a frustrating character but has been unlucky to fall or unseat on several occasions, set to be placed at least in a trio of Grade 1 events but for a late departure, and it was hardly his fault that he lost Jack Kennedy at Punchestown last time, with a first-fence slip proving costly.

He looked in good heart as he jumped around riderless after that mishap and the 5/1 on offer about him is very generous on balance.

Recommended:

Martator 2.05 Ascot – 1pt win

Jour d’Evasion 3.15 Ascot – 1pt e/w 25/1 (Bet365, 20/1 Hills, Betfair – 4 places)

Amirite 3.45 Ascot – 1pt win 7/1 (SkyBet, 13/2 general)

Sandor Clegane 2.22 Wetherby – 1pt win 7/2 (Bet365, 10/3 general)

Conflated 2.58 Wetherby – 1pt win 7/2 (general)