Ascot Saturday

1:50 Sodexo Live! Princess

Margaret Stakes (Group 3) 6f

I was very taken by Simmering when watching her on debut at York where she gave the impression that she was the best filly in the race, but just needed the run.

I was with her in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot expecting significant progress, and she duly delivered that improvement, but was unfortunate to run into a monster in the shape of Fairy Godmother.

The form of the Albany has worked out well, with third and fourth home filling the minor places in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket, and it’s impossible to find any negative with Simmering, who has virtually identical conditions as last time and holds an advantage on the clock on all her rivals.

Ryan Moore takes over from Jamie Spencer due to a recent change in ownership, and even the latter’s biggest fans wouldn’t claim that was a jockey downgrade.

2:25 Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares)

7f 213y

As usual, the round course at Ascot presents its own challenges, but a small field mitigates against the usual trouble in running, and I doubt the draw will be a significant factor.

The Musidora could not have been more of a disaster for John and Thady Gosden’s Friendly Soul, who struggled to cope with the left-handed track and Kieran Shoemark was fighting a losing battle to get her around the bend.

That certainly dented her reputation, but she started a red-hot favourite at York on the back of an impressive all-the-way win in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket where she and runner-up Kalpana came a dozen lengths clear of some useful fillies.

Owned and bred by John Gosden’s long-time ally George Strawbridge, Friendly Soul is a half-sister to Group 1 winners Call The Wind (Prix du Cadran), We Are (Prix de l’Opéra) and With You (Prix Rothschild) and in winning the Pretty Polly on just her second start – and turf debut – she was marking herself as another top-class prospect for the family.

Her defeat in the Musidora will put many off, but she is clearly in need of a right-handed track and it’s intriguing that she is being brought back to a mile.

I thought she would stay further, but connections eschewed the Ribblesdale in order to run here and while the return to this trip is a slight concern, I do believe that she is the most talented filly in this race and an aggressive ride at a mile could prove her best option.

3:00 Moet & Chandon

International Stakes 7f

Buckingham Palace Stakes third Carrytheone was one I put up as worth following after Royal Ascot, and he again shaped very well when making the frame behind Aalto in the Bunbury Cup, once again looking unlucky as he was short of room at a crucial stage.

A winner over seven furlongs on the Rowley Mile prior to Ascot, he was stuck in traffic as the winner got away in the Buckingham Palace and finished strongly when in the clear to show himself still ahead of his mark.

He was held up too far off the pace as it panned out at Ascot and while that makes him a hostage to fortune in big-field scenarios, he’s clearly on a winning mark and a well-run race over track and trip looks perfect for him.

Able to race off the same mark as at Ascot and Newmarket due to this being an early-closing contest, Carrytheone makes plenty of appeal, and is preferred to Orazio, who also flashed home in the Wokingham and is knocking on the door in a big handicap, for all I’d prefer to see him kept to six furlongs.

3:40 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes

(Group 1) 1m 3f 211y

I was with Auguste Rodin in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes last time, arguing that his inconsistency since the start of last year is easy enough to put down to the ground. Auguste Rodin’s best form last year came when the ground was very quick.

All three of his blowouts have come on good or softer, including on watered turf at Meydan, whereas five runs on good to firm or firm have resulted in wins in the Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.

Ascot did water on Wednesday, but it’s almost certain the ground will again be good to firm and no slower here, and it’s likely that Auguste Rodin will again take the beating. His low draw isn’t ideal, but he has two pacemakers to ensure he’s in the perfect position coming into the straight, and he should have no excuses.

York Saturday

2:05 Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap 5f

Low draws should be seen to advantage on the sprint track at York with one of the more recent big-field handicaps seeing stalls 1-6 in a 20-runner field provide the first six home, a result most compelling, as Hercule Poirot might have said.

With the likelihood of a headlong gallop in this event for jump jockeys (they won’t be taking it easy, the lunatics), I’m inclined to find one drawn low with the ability to close up late over this trip and Bayraat fits the bill nicely.

He’s had two runs to put him straight this season, shaping as if rusty both times, but noted doing some good late work behind The Coffee Pod over course and distance last time. The handicapper has dropped him 6lb for his last few starts and he’s now 3lb lower than when an excellent third in a better class handicap than this at Haydock in September.

He is at his best on a fast surface and is effective at five furlongs for all he stays further, so looks set to get amongst them in the finish here.

2:40 Sky Bet Dash Handicap 6f

I mentioned a race over course and distance in which the lowest six stalls filled the first six places and Rock Opera went into the notebook after that as, although drawn in stall eight, he found himself constantly forced right throughout the race and eventually ended up against the stands’ rail.

His effort to finish eighth must be upgraded, and he looks a winner in waiting, but I was hoping that he would fare better with his stalls position this time.

Annoyingly, he must come from stall 11 of 14 here, which limits his appeal.

At around 16/1 he still looks overpriced, and this is a significantly smaller field than last time, which will allow him more room to manoeuvre, but it can only be small stakes given how significant the draw appears to be.

3:15 Sky Bet York Stakes

(Group 2) 1m 2f 56y

Alflailah won this race last year and looks at least as good as ever, finishing fast from an impossible position when fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes and not getting the clearest of runs when fourth, again behind Auguste Rodin, in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes last time.

He usually exits gingerly from the stalls, and that can leave him poorly placed in a race, as at Leopardstown last term, but that quirk should not be a problem here and I think he ought to be clear favourite in receipt of weight from Passenger, who is very talented, but also very short on the basis of a cosy win in the Huxley Stakes at Chester.

Simmering 1:50 Ascot – 2pts win 13/8 (Hills, Betfair)

Friendly Soul 2:25 Ascot – 2pts win 5/1 (general)

Carrytheone 3:00 Ascot – 1pt e/w 11/2 (Hills – 5 places; 5/1 general)

Bayraat 2:05 York – 1pt e/w 20/1 (Bet365 – 5 places; 16/1 Hills)

Alflailah 3:15 York – 2pts win 5/2 (Betfair, BetVictor)