Sandown Saturday

1:50 Bet365 Novices’

Championship Final Handicap Hurdle 1m 7f 216y

This is a race which has seen younger horses dominate with Herbiers and Under Control have won this as four-year-olds in recent times from just 11 runners of that age, and of the three from that cohort this time around, Maasai Mara makes plenty of appeal at a double-figure price.

Useful on the flat for the John and Thady Gosden, winning twice from marks in the 80s for them last summer when fitted with headgear, he went to current connections for a six-figure sum of money and whilst he looked very novicey on debut at Hereford in January, he showed the benefit of that outing by winning easily at Catterick next time, where his jumping was much more fluent.

He lost nothing in defeat by running the 130-rated Insurrection to just under four lengths back at Hereford last time, and the 7lb rise for that effort is justified. It still leaves him on a more than workable mark compared to his flat exploits and the ground won’t be a worry to him.

The addition of some headgear, which he required on the flat, is another plus point and whilst this stiffer track is the one unknown with him, given he was best at around a mile-and-a-quarter on the level, it’s certainly not enough to put me off.

2:25 Bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2) 2m 6f 164y

This looks a much easier task than a few The Real Whacker has been set this season, and he can put his solid jumping to good use around a track that often rewards it. While he seemed to fail for stamina as much as class in the Gold Cup, this intermediate trip could also prove ideal for Pat Neville’s front runner.

The Real Whacker has twice been beaten on very deep ground this season, and his very best efforts have come away from the mud, with a record on yielding ground over fences reading 1112. He was ridden against type when a creditable fourth in the King George and was back to his best when failing by two and three-quarter lengths to give weight to Capodanno in the Cotswold Chase. Still fairly fresh, he should reap the benefit of a visor at the second time of asking and should dominate today’s rivals if that’s the case.

3:00 Bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y

A race to savour but a hard one to bet in, mainly because I find myself being drawn to Jonbon, which is an unusual position to find myself in. El Fabiolo went into Cheltenham with a reputation of being able to survive the odd mistake, but his suspect technique finally caught him out and Paul Townend sensibly pulled him up after a monumental blunder in the first half of the race.

It’s tempting to forgive that one blip, but now that he’s shown that his jumping is his Achilles’ heel, I can’t trust him not to repeat what happened last time at such skinny odds. Jonbon was impressive in beating Captain Guinness in this race last year and saves some of his best efforts for Sandown, so with Edwardstone likely to set a strong pace again, that will be seen as suiting Nicky Henderson’s Aintree winner.

I wonder if stepping back from the longer trip of the Melling might make him vulnerable, though, and while Edwardstone was beaten when falling in the Champion Chase, he ran well for a long way and could prove very hard to peg back if Alan King sticks with the tactics that saw him win the Game Spirit by a distance. He was ridden negatively when beaten by Jonbon in the Shloer at Cheltenham and over course and distance in the Tingle Creek, but looked a much happier horse at Newbury. He looks too big at 9/1 assuming he’s not going to be restrained, those tactics seeming to make him sulk in the past.

3:35 Bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase 3m 4f 146y

Le Milos is the most interesting runner in this year’s renewal of the bet365 Gold Cup, as Dan Skelton makes a last-gasp bid to land the trainers’ championship. The 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner has been raced very sparingly since then, only seen out five times after that and never really running to the same level again, although it’s very easy to find excuses for many of those runs, clearly not staying in the Grand National last year after looking a threat three out and campaigned to qualify for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham this season.

He was given a very quiet ride at Ascot on his prep run after a break in February, and I expected him to be cherry-ripe at the Festival, as were so many of Skelton’s runners. Le Milos started a 6/1 chance to win the Pertemps Final itself, but he was one of the very few Skelton horses on the week that didn’t look absolutely razor-sharp in the preliminaries, and he shaped in kind, travelling well for a long way, but looking like he was still short of peak fitness as he faded from between the last two flights.

Given he wasn’t given a preparation for another tilt at Aintree, I wondered if he might have had a setback in the winter which meant he was better prepared for a later target, and they don’t come any later than this end-of-season showpiece. He certainly arrives here fresher than most, and if the paddock observations at Cheltenham are accurate then he should be ready to peak just at the right time.

A strong finisher over the extended three and a quarter miles of the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, this trip on yielding ground should suit him perfectly and, while it may prove too little too late for Skelton in terms of thwarting the Willie Mullins juggernaut, it would be a fitting end to an excellent season for the Alcester handler.

Threeunderthrufive also makes a bit of appeal at the prices. He’s had a good year, showing both a high level of form and a great deal of consistency with it, fully deserving of his win at Ascot last time.

A new mark of 156 demands more of this nine-year-old, but he has shown himself to be ideally suited by a test of stamina on a right-handed track, and his best form has come away from the mud, so I’d not be at all surprised to see him produce another career-best effort with conditions very much in his favour.

4:10 Bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 5f 110y

The Select Hurdle looks a no-bet race at the prices. I think that Impaire Et Passe will confirm form with Langer Dan with Paul Townend arguably getting to the front earlier than ideal at Aintree. At the weights, however, the Skelton horse has every chance of turning the tables given he looked an unlucky loser and is now 2lb better off.

As a result I thought there wouldn’t be much between them in the betting, but odds-on in places about Impaire Et Passe is not hugely appealing. I expect that price to drift a little but not enough to have me cracking open the piggy-bank, I fear.

Recommended:

Maasai Mara 1:50 Sandown - 1pt e/w 14/1 (general – 5 places)

The Real Whacker 2:25 Sandown - 3pts win 5/2 (general)

Edwardstone 3:00 Sandown – 1pt win 9/1 (general)

Le Milos 3:35 Sandown - 1pt e/w 8/1 (general – 5 places)