Epsom Saturday
16:30 Betfred Derby (Group 1) 1m 4f 6y
In a way, the Derby revolves around one horse, and City Of Troy has certainly cast a shadow over the season despite – or perhaps because of – his poor effort in the 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien puts that down to the champion juvenile being upset in the stalls and running on adrenaline through the race.
Certainly, that effort was too bad to be true, but the son of Justify did not impress the paddock watchers at Newmarket and has yet to thrive physically, for all he may yet do so.
Even forgiving that run, he has questions to answer regarding this trip having never shaped as if in need of further than a mile, and while I’m wary of the expression “too fast to stay”, he’s certainly one who likes to utilise his speed from the stalls rather than keeping it in reserve, and he will have to if he’s to get across from stall one, the configuration of the track at this distance favouring those drawn middle-to-wide.
All in all, I feel he’s firmly up against it here, and I don’t see Ryan Moore beating him up to get a place. My gut feeling is that if he’s to bounce back, it will be back in trip at Royal Ascot rather than over the Derby distance.
Los Angeles would almost certainly start favourite here but for Ryan Moore choosing City Of Troy, and it should be understood that Moore simply could not choose to desert the Dewhurst winner given the hopes for him as a stallion as much as his chance in the race.
Unlike in the Oaks, the betting hasn’t reacted negatively to the putative second string after riding arrangements had been announced, and there is a chance that market forces on the day will see the pair flip-flop in the betting.
Tried and trusted route
The unbeaten Los Angeles has taken a tried and trusted route to Epsom via the Leopardstown Derby Trial (now sponsored by the Cashel Palace Hotel rather than Derrinstown Stud, just to confuse the traditionalist in me), but the fact that the entire field was covered by two lengths there should temper enthusiasm a little, accepting that the son of Camelot was never stronger than at the finish having initially laboured to put the race to bed.
Ambiente Friendly has a better chances on paper than Los Angeles on a line through the latter’s stablemate Illinois.
Los Angeles beat Illinois a length in the Critérium de Saint-Cloud in October, but Ambiente Friendly had that colt four and a half lengths back in second when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial, form which has been boosted by the third, Meydaan, in the Cocked Hat Stakes last week.
There’s a lot to like about James Fanshawe’s colt, albeit slightly sullied by the decision to ‘jock off’ Callum Shepherd in favour of Rab Havlin.
Also with strong claims on the pick of his form is Ancient Wisdom, and while his second to Economics in the Dante isn’t good enough to win, he had excuses at York, and the form of his Autumn Stakes win, where Ambiente Friendly was five and a half lengths back in third, looks rock solid.
Gallinule Stakes winner Chief Little Rock was a well-held second while Orne, beaten 10 lengths, won the Horris Hill and has been placed four times in blacktype races this term.
Dancing Gemini was arguably unlucky in the French 2000 Guineas and is bred to stay being by Camelot out of an Australia mare, but he has shown no shortage of speed at up to a mile and he was behind Ancient Wisdom twice last season.
A win for Roger Teal would be a tremendous boost to Epsom as a training centre, but he might have been better deployed at Chantilly for the Prix du Jockey Club.
14:00 Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) 1m 113y
When Astral Beau was beaten less than a length in this race last year, she was facing better rivals than she does here, with winner Prosperous Voyage rated 112 by the official assessor, and it’s easy to excuse a rare poor run from her in the Dahlia Stakes where she raced away from the favoured part of the track and with less enterprise than was needed.
She ran a cracker to be second to Charyn in the Doncaster Mile (won that race in 2023) on her return when forcing the pace into a headwind that was no help to her, and I believe she is as good as ever.
Because she was behind Running Lion in the Dahlia, she’s been ignored in the betting here, but her best form gives her every chance against that filly, and the fact that she handles Epsom well must be in her favour, whereas Running Lion’s previous experience here saw her withdrawn after getting upset in the stalls before the Oaks last year.
Running Lion had a big reputation based on a couple of Polytrack runs last spring, but she failed to live up to it subsequently, including when dropped to listed company at Salisbury.
I think she’s a tad overrated still, and she makes limited appeal at the overnight prices.
14:35 Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) 1113y
The Diomed is another contest where harking back to last year tells a story. On that occasion, Regal Reality beat Highland Avenue by three-quarters of a length. I believe he can repeat that feat having spoiled his chance with a slow start in the Huxley Stakes at Chester last time. That run shows that Regal Reality, who grabbed third having still been last with two furlongs to run, is pretty much as good – and as quirky – as ever, and with Ryan Moore back on board, he’s fancied to bring his “A” game, which may well be enough to stage a repeat, a notion backed up by the fact that Highland Avenue is trading as favourite.
15:10 Betfred 3-y-o “Dash” Handicap 5f
Let’s hope the stalls open on schedule here.
It’s not easy unpicking these three-year-old handicaps before the height of summer, and no picnic afterwards, truth be told, but Grandlad makes plenty of appeal given the progress he’s shown since making a belated debut at Newcastle in March.
James Horton’s charge won a Wolverhampton novice two starts back and showed that he’s suited by a downhill five furlongs when scoring on handicap bow at Goodwood last time.
Although only a narrow winner, he posted a smart time at Goodwood, and has the early boot to lead this field in the centre, which is always a bonus over this fastest of five-furlong dashes.
He is open to further improvement after just four lifetime starts and a 3lb rise for Goodwood looks extremely fair on balance.
15:45 Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap 5f
In theory, the high numbers are advantaged over track and trip, but in truth there tend to be more hard-luck stories than success stories for that cohort. That’s no surprise with riders keen to tack across to the rail, creating trouble in running as they do, or more likely as they weaken late having worked too hard to get there.
When speedsters stay in the middle of the track they are not significantly compromised by track position, and three of the last eight winners have come from the lowest stall, shunning the rail.
As such, that’s the first place I look and if I find a prominent racer with course form then I tend to end the search early. It didn’t take me long to land on Looking For Lynda.
The gelding ticks the right boxes: drawn in stall one, he comes here after three solid placed efforts on good and soft ground, he won’t be fazed by his wide draw as he raced wide off the rail when second to Night On Earth over course and distance in April.
Once rated 99, he’s more favourably weighted these days.
Astral Beau 2:00 Epsom – 1pt e/w 10/1 (general)
Regal Reality 2:35 Epsom – 1pt win 9/2 (general)
Grandlad 3:10 Epsom – 1pt win 13/2 (Hills, 888Sport)
Looking For Lynda 3:45 Epsom – 1pt e/w 7/1 (general – 4 places)
Ancient Wisdom 4:30 Epsom – 2pts win 13/2 (general)