1:50 Sodexo Live! Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
2m 7f 180y
Not easy finding a strong angle in here. Apple Away was put in short earlier in the week and I wanted to take her on, but she’s been on the drift since. She had excuses (rider couldn’t claim and got involved in a pace battle) at Warwick last time and her previous 31-length romp at Leicester was boosted when Makin’yourmindup scored at Newbury last weekend.
Brave Kingdom also had his latest win franked when Theatre Man, with whom he had enjoyed a rousing battle at Newbury in December, ran second to Turners Novices’ Chase favourite Ginny’s Destiny in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham last month.
It’s hard to ignore Kauto Star third Kilbeg King, either, so it’s hard to make the selection any more than a token vote.
2:25 Thoroughbred Industry
Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f 58y
Well, this is easier, with extra places on offer and plenty to like about Bad in terms of stable form and the suitability of the track.
Ben Pauling’s five-year-old has arguably been expensive to follow since moving from France, but he has been going in the right direction since an unsuccessful plunge in the Fred Winter and I take issue with the Timeform assessment that he hinted at temperament when a good third to subsequent winner Titan Discovery over two miles here in December.
For my money, Bad was perhaps a little uneasy on the unseasonably fast ground but if a horse wants to drop itself out of contention, then putting the brakes on into a hurdle has the desired effect, and Bad pinged every hurdle last time before keeping on for third under a big weight.
He’s not built to concede lumps to inferior rivals, in my opinion, and will be seen to better advantage getting weight in this contest, where a longer trip and softer ground are also positives.
Bad has had wind surgery since that run, and Pauling is operating at double the strike-rate he managed before Christmas. Since the turn of the year, Pauling’s horses have won 16 of the 70 races they’ve contested, which must be a positive, while the trainer also has a positive record when applying cheekpieces for the first time.
The last-named ploy seems a bit like overkill, but there is plenty to like about Bad’s chances, and I’d be stunned if he isn’t placed at least here.
3:00 IJF Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase 2m 7f 180y
In contrast to the preceding handicap hurdle, there are very few in the Swinley with positive profiles. One who does is Victtorino, who has already won twice over course and distance this season and is easily forgiven a lesser effort over two and a half miles at Cheltenham last time with track and trip seeming to find him out.
He’s hardly been harshly dealt with and is the likeliest winner of this race on paper, with an 8lb rise for two televised wins the least he could have been expected to bear.
My notes on the others are fairly stark with several looking gone (corpsed in the local lingo) and others who can’t be trusted. That left me with Torn And Frayed as a potential danger back on good to soft ground. He’s been in the toughest possible races in three runs since a long absence and has done enough to suggest he retains his ability. A move away from Cheltenham may not be a bad thing, and the 10-year-old would appeal at 16/1 or bigger in something of a rogues’ gallery.
3:36 Betfair Ascot Chase
(Grade 1) 2m 5f 8y
Ahoy Senor got positive reviews from me after the Cotswold Chase and the drop in trip could well be of benefit to him assuming he can find a rhythm.
He lost an off-side stirrup at Cheltenham when travelling best and has always improved in the spring so - with L’Homme Presse in some danger of bouncing after a hard race on his return at Lingfield - Lucinda Russell’s charge represents clear value for those who can ignore the patchy nature of his form.
2:40 Virgin Bet Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m 58y
Botox Has is the marginal call in the Rendlesham Hurdle although the eight-year-old has a most annoying habit of throwing in one blunder on his way around. He has the beating of Red Risk on West Yorkshire Hurdle running earlier in the season and has run with credit in both the Long Walk and the Cleeve Hurdle on his last two starts despite typically spoiling his winning chance with mistakes at vital moments in both of those races.
I’m not inclined to field against him, but that predilection means I won’t be getting too heavily involved in him at current odds.
3:15 Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase 3m 4f 97y
Iron Bridge or nothing. That’s the stark choice in the Grand National. “Getting Jonjo O’Neill Right” would never be my chosen subject on Mastermind, but with four of his last five runners successful and a win here looking almost essential to getting a place in the Grand National field, there can be no better time for taking a punt on the Jackdaws Castle operation.
There were two races for the Welsh Grand National in December – the one Nassalam was having on his own and the one the other 18 runners had. In the latter battle, Iron Bridge beat the right horses in Iwilldoit and Not Sure.
The distance beaten means the handicapper has dropped him 2lb for that sterling effort, while he really should have won at Uttoxeter on his final start of last season, with the pair he split starting first and second in the betting for that Welsh National.
He had the look of a big-race project last term and needs to prove the point by winning here. I fully expect him to do so.
3:50 Pertemps Network
Handicap Hurdle 3m 58y
Lord Snootie looked a much-improved horse once sent handicapping and stepping up in trip last season, his Warwick win at the end of 2022 signalling a rise through the ranks.
He’s been fairly lightly campaigned since then, albeit taking in big-field handicaps at both Galway and Punchestown, and he shaped as if on the way back when an eight length sixth to Slate Lane in the valuable Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in November, a race that’s already worked out well having looked very competitive beforehand.
He went to Wincanton on St Stephen’s Day for a Pertemps Qualifier that looked a good opportunity for him to get qualified (only eight took part, with the first four qualifying) and the money that came for him suggested he was going to run well, but he finished very tamely after leading.
In fairness, the Christian Williams yard was 0-21 in December and few of the established runners then ran to their marks, so it may be best to ignore the run.
There have been better signs of late from the Ogmore-By-Sea yard, and February has traditionally been the month where the Williams horses begin to reward support, so I’m expecting a better effort from Lord Snootie, and the fact that connections are making another effort to qualify for Cheltenham suggests the existence of a plan.
Bad 2:25 Ascot – 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 (general – 5 places)
Ahoy Senor 3:36 Ascot - 2pts win @ 5/1 (general)
Iron Bridge 3:15 Haydock – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Bet365, Hills, Boyles)