Newbury Saturday

1:50 BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed) 6f

Newbury gets underway with the Carnarvon Stakes over six furlongs, and Noble Style is likely to take plenty of beating having shaped better than the result in the 2000 Guineas, where he clearly failed to stay the mile on soft ground.

The son of Kingman had Guineas third Royal Scotsman behind when making a winning debut at Ascot last term and put up a sparkling performance to take a deep renewal of the Gimcrack Stakes at York, where he beat Marshman and Cold Case, both of whom have won Group 3 races this season.

He had a setback thereafter, and didn’t impress in his pre-Guineas gallop at Newmarket, but he showed all his old dash in the Guineas and looks a top-class sprinter in the making now that connections are no longer trying to mould him into a miler.

2:25 Al Rayyan (Aston Park) Stakes (Group 3) 1m 4f

I’d be keen on the chances of Yibir here but for the fact he’s been absent since winning the Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket last July. His least impressive performance of the last two seasons was when beaten in the Jockey Club Stakes on his return to the UK last spring, and the niggling concern is that he might need an outing to get back into the swing of things, for all I suspect that’s more of a mental than physical thing with him.

He’s got better as the year has gone on in previous campaigns, so could be vulnerable here, but that concern is arguably fully factored into his odds, and he’s not opposed lightly.

3:00 BetVictor London Gold Cup 1m 2f

I’m taking a swing at one here in the shape of Stan Moore’s Raintown, who shaped much better than the bare result on softish ground at Goodwood on his return over an inadequate 1m and could prove a surprise package back at a trip he showed he stays as a juvenile.

Raintown was progressive in the autumn when winning his last three starts, showing further improvement to score over a mile and a quarter at Lingfield in December, beating a pair of last-time-out nursery winners despite being poorly placed and forced to race wide on the final bend.

He’s out of the handicap here but is effectively just 2lb above his Lingfield mark with Georgia Dobie’s claim taken into account, and despite failing to handle the gradients at Goodwood, he was beaten less than five lengths while going on again at the finish under a less-than-typical Luke Morris ride.

I admit he’s not the likeliest winner of this on paper, but he is a credible contender, and the 66/1 freely available on Thursday and Friday was much too big about the chances of this promising gelding, and he still represents solid each-way value.

A high draw will be viewed by many as a disadvantage, but recent runnings of this race would not back that up. In 2019 stall 14 won with 16 third, and in 2022 the two highest stalls again filled first and third. There were only ten runners for the 2021 running (no race in 2020 due to Covid-19), but stalls 8 and 10 were first and third.

3:35 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) 1m

Laurel, getting the fillies’ allowance, is the most interesting of these at a mile given how progressive and unexposed she is, with her only defeat when second to Fonteyn in the Sun Chariot Stakes in the autumn, a defeat that was more to do with her inexperience than her ability on the day.

She is respected, but at a much bigger price, I am keen to give Triple Time another chance, with the likely fast conditions very much in his favour.

I was very taken by Kevin Ryan’s reaction when Triple Time overcame a one-year layoff to take the Superior Mile at Haydock, with the trainer revealing that he was “devastated” when the colt went lame when being prepared for the 2000 Guineas and describing the son of Frankel as a “special talent”. Ryan isn’t one to go overboard about his horses, and those comments resonated.

He went for the Prix Daniel Wildenstein off the back of that but found the ground far too soft to operate on, and although not disgraced, this quicker ground at Newbury will be much more suitable.

His win at Haydock came off the back of an interrupted preparation and there must be a chance that this big, scopey colt can show further improvement as a four-year-old. He’s massively overpriced if that’s the case.

14:05 Aspall Cyder 1728 Handicap 1m

Acotango was progressive for Harry and Roger Charlton as a two-year-old and looked like he had trained on well when second to Racingbreaks Ryder on his reappearance at Haydock last month, keeping on in good fashion after trying to make all.

That form couldn’t be working out much better, with both the winner and third wide-margin winners on their next start, and sixth Animate also winning subsequently at Wolverhampton.

The 3lb rise Acotango received for Haydock is on the lenient side given the collateral form, and he still has the look of a well-handicapped one. He’s the one to beat here with the prospect of another uncontested lead on the cards.

14:40 Aspall Suffolk Draught Cyder Handicap 6f

He didn’t last long with Charlie Appleby, but despite a quirk or two, Quinault has looked a hugely progressive handicapper for new connections this year and took another step forward when winning over course and distance on Thursday evening.

He picks up a penalty for that, but would have been out of the handicap otherwise, and while this is clearly a tougher assignment, the way he blitzed his rivals on his last three starts suggests he’s going to hit greater heights, and the hint should be taken should he be turned out quickly by the astute Stuart Williams.

15:15 Aspall Premier Cru Handicap 7f

It would be remiss of me not to put up the promising Signcastle City, given he ran an eye-catching race to be fifth behind Racingbreaks Ryder and Acotango in the aforementioned Haydock contest, and the drop to seven furlongs could be the key to unlocking his potential.

The son of Dark Angel has travelled as well as anything at Haydock after missing the break slightly, and he looked a big danger when finding traffic two furlongs out, only for his run to flatten out late.

It’s likely that run was needed, but he’s twice travelled well only to weaken late over a mile, and he looks like this seven-furlong trip will be ideal.

He’s capable of making the running, but is clearly tactically versatile, and he handles the track, having finished an excellent fifth to Epictetus when the pair made their respective debuts over course and distance last summer.

Acotango 2:05 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365, 7/2 general)

Signcastle City 3:15 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Hills, BetVictor – 4 places, 18/1 general)

Raintown 3:00 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (general – 5 places)

Triple Time 3:35 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (general – 4 places)