Haydock Saturday
13:50 Betfair Exchange Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3) 1m 37y
Light Infantry has largely been keeping better company than this and should end a losing run stretching back to his win in the Horris Hill Stakes as a juvenile.
That win came on heavy ground, but he was impressive on debut when the ground was quick, and three consecutive placings in Group 1 company this term have all come on good or quicker ground.
Point Lynas ought to get the run of things from the front and could well improve, but he has 17lb to find on official ratings, and is much more likely to set the race up for the favourite, who is hard to oppose.
14:25 Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap 1m 6f 1y
He was a bit too keen when runner-up in the Melrose Handicap at York last time, so I would expect improvement from Denmark on his second start after a break, when he’s likely to have any gassiness knocked out of him, and he makes plenty of appeal in a similar contest despite copping for a 5lb rise for his effort in the Melrose.
There may not be much between Denmark and Lordship on revised terms (4lb allowed for three and a quarter lengths), but the former is open to more improvement having had just the one handicap start to date, and he’s a fairly confident choice to confirm the York form.
15:00 Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap 1m 6f 1y
Post Impressionist had threatened to become disappointing this season, but he produced his best effort of the campaign when ninth in the Ebor last time
That doesn’t look an especially good run on paper, but Post Impressionist was drawn poorly in stall 1 the way the race was run, and he was going on nicely at the finish despite racing away from the principals.
He was a very unlucky loser over course and distance just under a year ago before scoring at York on his final 2022 start, and it’s not at all hard to find excuses for his runs this season, with another poor draw putting paid to his chances in the Northumberland Plate, and heavy ground at Goodwood hardly ideal.
He ran badly at Ascot on his penultimate start without obvious excuse, but did so last year too, and simply seems to dislike the venue.
It was good to see him able to lie up at York, and he’s now 2lb lower given the Ebor was an early-closing contest.
15:35 Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) 6f
Shaquille is clearly the best horse in the Sprint Cup, but despite reports of good stalls work lately, he remains a dangerous betting proposition as his intractable nature is bound to cost him at some point – in fact it’s a tribute to his raw ability that he could win twice at this level despite doing so much wrong at Ascot and Newmarket.
Add in the unpredictability of the draw at Haydock, and with the stands’ side track being used for the final day of this three-day fixture, there could well be a bias towards the high numbers, as was seen in the Temple Stakes here in May.
On that occasion the four highest-drawn runners filled the first four places, and it would be utterly Haydockian for this race to provide a repeat. The ground is likely to be as quick here as it was last year when those drawn low might as well have stayed at home (and some of them did).
The last time a field this size raced on fast ground for this contest, Dream Ahead justified favouritism, but the next four home came from stalls 12, 13, 14 and 15.
I’m happy to bet once again that the high numbers will get a better shot at things than the others, and Run To Freedom gets my vote from box 15.
There are question marks over plenty of these on the basis of their ability to compete in Group 1 company, but that’s not the case for Henry Candy’s five-year-old entire, who seems to save his best for the big days, finishing second in both the British Champions Sprint and the July Cup in the last 12 months.
He is at his best when running late into a well-run race, and looks to have the perfect set-up here.
Kempton Saturday
13:35 Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) 1m 3f 219y
I originally looked at this race with a view to finding an alternative to Bay Bridge, but the more I looked, the more convinced I was that he would be hard to beat.
Races run over this course and distance never seem to test stamina as they would on turf, so the fact that Bay Bridge is unproven over a mile and a half is less of a concern that you might imagine, whereas Candleford found himself outpaced when third in the Listed Floodlit Stakes over course and distance last autumn, while market rivals Israr and Max Vega are also in need of a test of stamina at this trip.
It’s possible that one of the other riders will look to set a strong pace in a bid to get Bay Bridge beaten, but I don’t think any of them will be keen to do so, and my prediction is that the race will be falsely run unless Chilean champion Fortino is utilised as a pacemaker.
That’s a possible scenario, but it’s more likely that the contest will be run to suit Bay Bridge, and I’d not be playing against him as a result.
14:10 Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap (Series Final) 1m
It’s notable that in big fields here, those who race prominently tend to fare better than expected, and in this race last year, the first four home raced in similar positions throughout the contest.
This doesn’t look like being a burn-up on paper, so I wanted to keep those who race prominently on side, with Bear Force One just preferred to Golden Sands.
Roger Teal is back in form of late, and Bear Force One come here relatively fresh after a course and distance win in May and a better effort in victory at Newbury the following month.
He may have needed the run after a break at Newmarket last month, and should be ready to run for his life here. He’s handicapped to the hilt, in truth, but looks drawn to lead those drawn low to middle, and with the run of the race, ought to go close.
Golden Sands looked better than ever when beaten half a length by the unexposed Alice Knyvet at Leicester last time, and that form was franked when third-placed Intercessor won his next start.
Fifth that day was Evocative Spark who looked unlucky when fourth at Chester next time, and the form looks worth following. Golden Sands can run off just 1lb higher here, and is another with enough early speed to take a valuable forward pitch despite his wide draw.
Ascot Saturday
2:35 bet365 Handicap 7f
Quinault will guarantee a strong pace here, but I can’t see him staying seven furlongs at Ascot’s stiff track the way he races, and he should set things up nicely for Hickory, who was better than ever, when equipped with a visor, when runner-up in the International Handicap here last time out.
Saffie Osborne got an excellent tune out of him then, and with a 2lb rise looking lenient on balance, the combination are taken to go one better in this similar contest. Hickory flopped on soft ground at Doncaster on his penultimate start, but should have conditions to his liking here and is expected to put up a bold show assuming his high draw is not a disadvantage.
15:10 Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 1m 3f 211y
Alsakib ran well on soft ground at Goodwood, but I doubt whether the conditions were ideal for him there, and I’d expect him to progress further back on a sound surface now, having impressed when landing a Windsor novice on his previous outing.
I was convinced that he had been deliberately laid out for the Qatar Goodwood Festival given his owner/breeders are Qatari, and while that ploy didn’t quite work, the son of Kingman remains totally unexposed for handicaps, and the way he finished off at Goodwood suggests that he ought to stay a mile and a half, for all his pedigree is less convincing in that regard.
He’s certainly not reached his peak by any means, and makes plenty of appeal from a mark which is likely to prove generous in time.
Post Impressionist 3:00 Haydock – 2pts win @ 7/1 (Bet365 - 13/2 general)
Run To Freedom 3:35 Haydock – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general – 4 places)
Bear Force One 2:10 Kempton – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (general – 4 places)
Hickory 2:45 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (general – 4 places)
Rory’s recommended selections last week included
Dual Identity @ 9/2