Ascot Saturday

1:15 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) 1m 7f 127y

A switch to hurdles was mooted for Trueshan after he finished behind Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes here in May, but a break after that lacklustre effort has proved a blessing.

He was much too keen on his return in the Doncaster Cup, but an excellent tactical ride by Hollie Doyle allowed him to take his revenge where the usually consistent Coltrane finished a disappointing last of five, with Sweet William and Broome filling the places.

There is not a great deal to choose between the quartet on the balance of this year’s domestic form, but Trueshan has since gone on to win the Prix du Cadran, and comes here with the fizziness out of him, but fresh enough to think he can run to his best on ground which will suit him well.

On last year’s form, Trueshan is held by Kyprios, but while many were encouraged by the latter’s return to action in the Irish St Leger, I’m unsure as to whether he did enough there to think he’s back to his imperious best.

If he is, then even a peak Trueshan can’t beat him, but Kyprios may well be vulnerable on his second start back from a lengthy absence and makes limited appeal at close to evens in a race like this.

1:50 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 6f

The stalls are on the far side for the straight-course races, which are not being moved (it would be possible to run the QEII around a bend, but not this race, and the heavy places on the outer track are confined to the round course), and that will likely shape where the riders want to be.

When the meeting was last switched to the inner turf in 2019, the jockeys all made a beeline for the far rail in the straight track races, but the result was that the leaders went too fast and the low-drawn horses who were ridden with patience tended to meet trouble.

Whether that will happen again is conjecture, but it’s all the historical context we have, so needs bearing in mind. Going-stick readings across the track - not available at the time of writing - will also make interesting reading in that regard.

Kinross has his conditions and will clearly be hard to beat, but a stampede for better ground is a great leveller, and I’d rather be a backer of Rohaan with the race sure to be run to suit his come-from-behind style. He has a full Ascot record of 110114071, goes on any ground, and was the winner of his group in this race last year when the race was dominated by those drawn high.

He was back to his best when giving weight all round in the Ascot Iron Stand Handicap over course and distance three weeks ago and is finding his form at just the right time.

2:25 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) 1m 3f 133y

Bluestocking is without a win this term, but she has run with credit against the very best of her age and sex at this trip and looks overpriced on balance with the softening ground likely to suit her better than most.

Ralph Beckett’s filly was a fine third in the Ribblesdale here on just her third career start and looked all over the winner of the Irish Oaks the following month until worn down close home by Savethelastdance.

She ran well again when a length behind the same rival in the Yorkshire Oaks, which was as deep as a contest of its type to be run all season, and while beaten at odds-on at Chester last time, was facing an under-rated rival in Al Qareem, who followed up in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes.

Those efforts show that Bluestocking is suited by trip and ground and that her form is both solid and consistent. She does need to find a couple of pounds of improvement to win unless others falter, but she remains low-mileage, and the fitting of cheekpieces may be enough to eke out that extra required.

Ralph Beckett has a good record when reaching for the headgear, which encourages support.

3:05 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) 1m

There are likelier winners of this contest, but at huge odds, Checkandchallenge is taken to improve on last year’s excellent fourth behind Bayside Boy, when staying on from a poor position to be beaten just two and a half lengths at the line.

I thought, based on that run, that he would prove even better tried at a mile and a quarter this season, but he hasn’t convinced with his stamina in three tries despite running with credit, and I have to concede that a well-run mile on soft ground looks his optimum.

Checkandchallenge was below form in the Prix Dollar last time, but that came on quick turf, and he moved up after a tardy start to hold second place until fading inside the last furlong of that mile and a quarter event.

A slow break from the stalls is rarely ideal, but the straight track at Ascot is just about the easiest place to get away with such a scenario, and the stiff track here often sees the pace failing to hold up on soft ground, with the result that the QEII often throws up a surprise.

Checkandchallenge certainly lacks the tactical speed to beat the best on a conventional track, but a war of attrition here will suit him, and he can hit the frame at a big price if things pan out as expected.

3:45 Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 2f

King Of Steel was well held when tried on heavy ground in the Futurity Stakes last autumn, but he was hugely impressive when scoring on a similar surface on his debut at Nottingham, and that second start merely came too soon for a backward colt.

He was impressive when winning the King Edward VII Stakes here in June, but seemed to find the trip just too far when third in the King George on his next start. He ran well dropped to this trip in the Irish Champion Stakes, just giving the front pair too much rope on the day, and he’s expected to find this track and trip ideal with Frankie Dettori taking over from Kevin Stott.

4:25 Balmoral Handicap

(Sponsored By Qipco) 1m

Predicting the effect of the draw may be slightly easier by the end of the day, but I’m taking encouragement from the 2019 running of this race when the course was riding equally soft, where being drawn wide was no hardship despite the field largely making for the far rail.

Escobar won that day having been held up from a high draw (first two drawn 21 and 20), and I hope that Awaal is fairly berthed in stall 22 - effectively 19 with the reserves allotted stalls which won’t be used – as he has plenty in his favour otherwise.

Placed in the Lincoln, Royal Hunt Cup and Bunbury Cup already this season, the son of Lope De Vega certainly wouldn’t be winning out of turn.

It’s perhaps worth noting that the last five winners of the Balmoral all carried either 9st 5lb or 9st 6lb and Awaal is the only horse in the field in that narrow weight band this time around, and while others have claims on their form over the trip, on the ground or at the track at this level, the four-year-old scores best across all categories, and should go close if not doing too much in refitted cheekpieces.

Rohaan 1:50 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (general – 4 places)

Bluestocking 2:25 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (SkyBet – 5 places)

Checkandchallenge 3:05 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 66/1 (general)

King Of Steel 3:45 Ascot – 1pt win @ 4/1 (general)

Awaal 4:25 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – 5 places)