Epsom Saturday

12:50 Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) 1m 113yrds

Marie’s Diamond clearly has his work cut out in the Diomed as the lowest rated runner, but all of his opponents have questions hanging over them, and it’s possible that Hollie Doyle will be able to ride her rivals to sleep from the front on a horse who will relish the likely fast ground.

Marie’s Diamond - an inveterate front runner - was back to form when making most in a red-hot handicap at York’s Dante meeting, only to be caught in the shadow of the post by the unexposed Marhaba The Champ.

He has a mixed record at this meeting, with two unplaced efforts coming on unsuitably soft ground, while he showed he handled the track well when third in the Surrey Stakes here as a three-year-old.

1:30 Betfred Derby (Group 1) 1m 4f 6yrds

The Derby is not an easy betting race, and I have more negatives than positives, as a race where the favourite was down the field in the Guineas might suggest.

Auguste Rodin is likely to bounce back given the circumstances surrounding his Newmarket flop, but his best form is on deep ground, and the forecast conditions ask another question of him.

The Dante form looks deep, and I’ve always liked The Foxes, but both he and runner-up White Birch are drawn low and will be held up.

As Masar showed a couple of years ago, it’s possible to overcome a low draw, but those held up from an inside berth tend to find themselves well back and on the rail coming down Tattenham Hill, and it can be hard to find a run from such a position.

The Foxes has the speed to race closer to the pace, but his stamina is not assured, and his half-brother Bangkok flopped in his Derby after winning a trial.

I think Passenger, joint third in the Dante after a troubled passage, is the best prospect in the field, but his lack of experience is a definite worry, while I could only be tempted to back Military Order – who has the best blend of class and experience – if there were positive signs from his stable on the first day.

It’s him or nothing at this stage, after my original fancy Alder was not declared.

Military Order was impressive on testing ground at Newbury on his penultimate start (Hurricane Lane had won the corresponding event for the same connections), and this full-brother to Derby winner Adayar impressed me with the way he was able to nip up the inside to land the Lingfield Derby Trial on Polytrack last time.

He’s sure to improve further, and is one of the few guaranteed stayers in the contest, so ticks the right boxes, for all a few of his stablemates have been disappointing of late.

2:10 Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) 1m 113yrds

With 2022 runner-up Potapova suffering an irregular heartbeat on her return, and not proven on quick going, this looks best left to the classy Prosperous Voyage, who would have found a stiff mile and a furlong on soft ground too much for her in the Dahlia Stakes.

She is better judged on her efforts in the 1000 Guineas and Falmouth Stakes last term, and is the clear choice on both those efforts. I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t boss matters from the off.

2:45 Aston Martin 3yo “Dash’” Handicap 5f

The key to solving the inaugural running of the three-year-old Dash might lie in the York handicap a couple of weeks ago where JM Jungle finished second and Tatterstall was not beaten far in seventh after trying to make all.

JM Jungle fared best of those that raced up with the pace at York, beaten just half a length by one ridden from much further back. He’s arguably the one to beat at a track which favours raw speed, but at bigger prices, I’d just favour Tatterstall.

Tatterstall raced front rank throughout at York, weakening only in the last half furlong as he finished a close seventh; he’s 3lb lower here given he was running under a penalty on the Knavesmire, so is 7lb better off with JM Jungle, and with a positive draw and at a track which suits his main attribute, he looks the value.

3:20 Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 5f

Two against the field in the dash, with both Sampers Seven and Ancient Times looking ideal types for this singular contest, and whichever of the pair wins the battle for early supremacy ought to be hard to peg back. Sampers Seven has blazing early speed (much like Caspian Prince, who Mick Appleby trained to win this race in both 2106 and 2017).

She improved on her reappearance when a good third at Thirsk last time, again having all her rivals off the bridle at halfway, and she can only benefit from this extra-sharp five furlongs. Greg Cheyne, who has made a good impression since coming to these shores, is a positive jockey booking.

Ancient Times is only just preferred. A winner over six furlongs here in the past, he has developed more speed as he has matured, as many true sprinters tend to do, and now looks best at a bare five furlongs. He shaped well on his reappearance at Newmarket, finishing a close fourth after showing typical early dash in conditions which blunted his speed, and he should come on for that outing.

This will be the first time he’ll be ridden by the excellent Kaiya Fraser, and that rider is tremendous value for his 7lb claim. With the handicapper kind enough to drop him 1lb for Newmarket, he’s effectively 8lb lower here, and will think he’s running loose.

3:55 Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap 1m 2f 17yrds

It’s never easy playing in three-year-old only handicaps before the middle of June, with so many well-bred and unexposed sorts to consider, but at least we know that Balance Of Play is well treated, and Ralph Beckett’s son of Lope De Vega looks the one to be with assuming he copes with the quicker ground.

Balance Of Play shaped well when fourth to Laafi at Nottingham on debut, conceding experience to the trio who beat him on heavy ground, and the winner was far from disgraced in the Lingfield Derby Trial on his comeback. A similar run followed behind Dragon Icon (sent off at 3/1 for the German 2000 Guineas on his most recent start), but it was his excellent second at Salisbury last month which suggested that he would be winning handicaps.

At level weights, he split subsequent winners in Quddwah and Greek Order in a close finish at Salisbury, and that pair are now rated 95 and 85, making the assessor’s initial swing at 81 for Balance of Play look very lenient.

4:30 Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap 1m 4f 6yrds

Scampi is easy to make a case for in the Northern Dancer Handicap. A progressive four-year-old, he’s best at a mile and a half on a sound surface, and his last three runs in those conditions have seen him record three wins, the latest in the ultra-competitive Jorvik Handicap at York last month. He will need to improve further to defy another rise in the weights, but that appears very much what he’s doing, and it would be folly to oppose him lightly arriving here, as he does, at the very top of his game.

A case can be made for Haliphon at a bigger price, too, as he was only just beaten in this race last year, and recent below-par efforts have come under sub-optimal conditions. His trainer has an excellent record with his handicappers at this fixture, with three winners and a further six places from 18 runners in the last five years.

Beaten just a nose from a 4lb lower mark in 2022, he went on to win his next two, with his most recent success coming under today’s rider off 1lb higher at Chester last summer. Two runs in the mud this spring are easily ignored, and I’d imagine that he’s once again been laid out for a touch in this contest.

5:05 JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap 6f 3yrds

Probe has improved markedly for the drop to sprinting since joining Jennie Candlish from Dermot Weld, and he should be unbeaten for new connections, having gone for home too soon on his penultimate start.

He had plenty in hand on a return to Newmarket last time, and has plenty more to offer this year, giving the impression he could easily graduate to group races before long. If he handles the track then he’s the one they have to beat again.

Mr Wagyu is an obvious alternative, having taken this race last year. He ran his best race this term when finishing on the heels of the placed horses at York last time, and he’s always been at his best in high summer, so is sure to have thrived with the sun on his back in recent weeks.

It really is worth repeating how potent he is in handicaps at this time of year, with his lifetime record in June/July reading 211611313146316311119123211410 – that’s 15 wins from 30 starts, often in the most competitive handicaps in the calendar.

At a huge price Count Otto is worth a second look. His record on ground that’s good or quicker at Epsom reads 122, and he has already won a race this season when springing a 40/1 surprise at Lingfield two starts ago.

While he’s not the most consistent around, he has a chance on a going day and the Amanda Perrett yard is having a decent time of things at present.

Recommended

Marie’s Diamond 12:50 Epsom – 1pt win @ 18/1 (Bet365, Coral)

Military Order 1:30 Epsom – 1pt win @ 9/2 (general)

Prosperous Voyage 2:10 Epsom – 2pts win @ 7/4 (general)

Tatterstall 2:45 Epsom – 0.5pts e/w @ 8/1 (SkyBet – 5 places, 15/2 Betway)

Ancient Times 3:20 Epsom – 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1 (SkyBet – 7 places)

Haliphon 4:30 Epsom – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (SkyBet – 4 places, 12/1 Unibet)