Newmarket Saturday

1.15 Space Blues Darley Stakes (Group 3) 1m 1f

The going for Cesarewitch day is likely to be good, with any good to soft disappearing on Friday morning, and that should make for perfect conditions. With Skellet an absentee, and with the going coming in his favour, I fancy Spirit Dancer can outrun big odds. He was only fourth in this a year ago, when the going was dead and his best efforts have come on fast turf, as when winning big pots in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia last winter.

This run is again seen as a prep for the Bahrain International Trophy next month, but Richard Fahey reports him fully recovered from a fetlock injury sustained in the spring and, while he may come on a little for the run, he should be fit enough to do himself justice, and odds as big as 25/1 after declarations ignore that he’s arguably the classiest horse in the contest. I’d obviously prefer the ground to quicken up even more, and a lifetime record on good to firm ground of 41231111 demonstrates that, with all his wins at this trip or a mile and a quarter.

1.50 Palace Pier Zetland Stakes (Group 3) 1m 2f

Shackleton is just about the pick in the Zetland, but double figure odds about the progressive Too Soon seem big given the progress he’s shown in three starts. I rate the Ascot contest in which he finished third two starts back, and he was better than the result there having raced much wider on the track than the pair that beat him.

He’s one of a trio from that race to have won well next time, his win coming in the BetFred Derby Wild Card conditions race at Epsom, where he travelled best from an early stage before beating a trio of previous winners with something in hand.

Too Soon has shown his best form to date on soft ground, but he’s simply improved for experience to my eye, not looking an obvious mudlark in terms of physique or action. His dam, Soon, is out of Irish 1000 Guineas winner Classic Park and therefore a half-sister to Derby runner-up and leading sire Walk In The Park.

There is a lot of quality in his pedigree and he is beginning to match up to that smart breeding, so cannot be taken lightly, and ought to stay 10 furlongs for all he’s by Too Darn Hot, who hasn’t had many runners beyond an extended mile.

2.25 Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) 1m

Wolf Of Badenoch ran badly in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, but that race was delayed when the favourite burst out of the stalls and had to be withdrawn, so I’m willing to forgive the effort in isolation, given the huge promise he showed both on debut at the same track and when second to Aomori City in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

Jamie Spencer has ridden him with exaggerated waiting tactics on all three starts, but I cannot see why that would be beneficial here, and I hope he’s given a more conventional ride at a track where losing ground early is often fatal.

3.00 Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) 7f

The Acomb Stakes in which The Lion In Winter beat Wimbledon Hawkeye and Ruling Court is one of the warmest juvenile events run all year, with the runner-up taking the Royal Lodge Stakes here on his next start and Ruling Court held in the highest esteem. Fourth-placed The Waco Kid won the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes here a fortnight ago and also-rans Jouncy and Yaroogh have also boosted the form, the former just touched off in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton and the latter winning a warm nursery at Doncaster under top weight.

It’s hardly surprising that The Lion In Winter is clear favourite for the 2000 Guineas despite “only” winning a Group 3, and he should enhance his claims with victory here, mainly because his main rival looks an unlikely stayer. I was impressed with Shadow Of Light in the Middle Park Stakes, but William Buick was in no doubt that he wasn’t a Guineas horse after that win, and he looks to have speed in abundance.

It’s reasonable to argue that an exceptional Middle Park winner ought to be able to step up a furlong for the Dewhurst on the same track, but history shows that very few have ever managed the feat, and nor have many Middle Park winners proven up to the Guineas in recent history, with Rodrigo de Triano the last to complete the double over three decades ago.

3.40 Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap 2m 2f

Plenty to consider in a Cesarewitch, which is likely to be dominated by Irish stables, but I thought Samui had as good a chance as any in conditions which suit and the booking of Keithen Kennedy to take off a useful 5lb helps offset concerns about his big weight. Ndaawi is the putative first-string for Elliott with Jamie Spencer riding, but I was not at all convinced with his stamina when seventh in the Ascot Stakes, and I think Spencer is on board because he will need to be delivered late after being put to sleep.

Samui is a more straightforward conveyance in that he looks a strong stayer granted a sound surface, winning by half the track at Killarney before an excellent second in a high-end two-mile handicap at York’s Ebor meeting behind the remarkable Extensio. He holds the likes of Spirit Mixer and Evaluation on that run and was far from disgraced when third to Absurde in a listed race at Chester next time (100-rated Fairbanks behind).

He dipped below form in the Rose Bowl Stakes here on his latest start, but that came on borderline heavy going and he simply failed to act on it. The drying weather is firmly in his favour here and he will be suited by the return to handicap company, looking overpriced at 25/1 given the level of form he’s been showing this season.

York Saturday

1.30 Coral Rockingham Stakes 6f

I suspect some will look to undermine the form of his win in the Goffs 500 last time, with that race lacking the depth you’d expect for the prize money, but Bolo Neighs improved on previous efforts to win the €245,000 prize by seven lengths and there was no hint of a fluke about it.

Rated only 77 by the BHA handicapper before that Curragh run, Bolo Neighs had shaped much better than the result in his qualifying runs, travelling best of all when fourth to Persian Spirit at Newbury (six furlongs, soft) on his previous start, where he faded late, as if needing the run after more than three months off.

All his previous promise was fulfilled last time, and I’m sure Ralph Beckett won’t mind that he’s given up a lenient mark for nurseries given that size of the Curragh pot. He recorded a decent time figure in winning there and will take all the beating again.

2.05 Coral ‘Daily Rewards Shaker’ Handicap 1m 2f 56y

In retrospect, conditions turned against Paddy The Squire in the Cambridgeshire last time, with the ground drying out remarkably overnight and the gelding predictably outpaced mid-race before staying on late. He was gambled on there on the basis of soft-to-heavy ground and is worth forgiving a listless effort given how things panned out at Newmarket.

Prior to that, Paddy The Squire had been placed at Hamilton and Chester, finishing just over a length and a half behind Stressfree at the latter track, despite being hampered by the winner in the closing stages. He won over a mile and a half on soft ground at Hamilton last year and is suited by a slog at this sort of trip, which he ought to get here.

The Chester race he ran in last time has worked out well, with Stressfree pulling clear with an unexposed rival when second from his revised mark at Leicester on Tuesday and the three immediately behind him all winning next time. He now meets the winner on 4lb better terms, but is over double the price of that rival, which makes little sense.

Paddy The Squire has raced only three times since making a belated return in August and is fresher than most of his rivals here. I thought he might be among the market leaders when looking at this race first, so to see at least one firm make him the rank outsider is something of a shock.

Recommended:

Spirit Dancer 1.15 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, 12/1 Hills, 11/1 general)

Too Soon 1.50 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 10/1 (Bet365, Betfair, 17/2 general)

Samui 3:40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (general – 6 places)

Bolo Neighs 1:30 York – 1pt win @ 3/1 (Bet365, Hills)

Paddy The Squire 2:05 York – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365 – 4 places, 18/1 general)