Ascot Saturday
1.40 BetMGM Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 1m 7f 152y
Kargese was a little raw as a juvenile, her enthusiasm obvious but needing the fitting of a hood to keep her keen-going ways in check, and I think she will progress further with experience. Her form stacks up very well in any case, with two Grade 1 wins sandwiching second-place finishes to Majborough in the Triumph Hurdle and Sir Gino at Aintree.
Kargese is following a plan that Willie Mullins tried successfully with Lossiemouth a year ago, that is deliberately starting the season after a lengthy break given top four-year-olds can be hard to place initially, with a step up to meet Champion Hurdle contenders in the autumn often asking too much. She might just need this run on her first start since the Punchestown Festival, but has the class to overcome such a disadvantage.
2.15 Bet365 Handicap Chase 2m 5f 8y
Scarface was beaten by Kotmask here last month, but is taken to reverse the form on better ground, which suits him better than the winner. The longer trip is also likely to suit Scarface, who has done most of his racing at around two miles, but has shaped well on both runs at two and a half and gives the impression he will relish this particular test.
2.50 BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f 58y
Better ground could also see Josh The Boss bounce back to form, after he got stuck in the mud at Haydock last time. That run followed an excellent effort to win the competitive Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow in October and that form has worked out tremendously well.
Josh The Boss was put up 7lb for winning by four lengths at Chepstow and, while first impressions are that the handicapper has taken charge based on his Haydock defeat, the collateral form from Chepstow says different, and I’m happy to take another chance on the Twiston-Davies gelding with conditions more suitable here.
3.32 BetMGM Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) 2m 167y
The Clarence House is hardly a betting race given its make-up, but Jonbon is hard to oppose in any case. He’s looked at least as good as ever in two starts this season, while Energumene’s win in the Hilly Way was visually impressive, but has less substance despite Banbridge’s King George heroics over a longer trip. It’s possible the 11-year-old Energumene will take a big step forward from that comeback, but then again, there is also a strong chance that he has regressed a fair bit from his peak, given his age and injury.
Haydock Saturday
2.30 Sky Bet Peter Marsh Handicap Chase 3m 1f 125y
There are questions over most of Royale Pagaille’s rivals here in terms of well-being, form or attitude, but not so Mr Vango, who relished a slog in the mud when beating Collector’s Item in the London National at Sandown last time. That form was franked when the runner-up was successful in the Somerset National at Wincanton on Thursday, and Mr Vango looks very fairly treated, despite being 1lb wrong at the weights. He’s receiving almost two stone from Royale Pagaille and can make that concession count by making all the running.
3.05 Sky Bet Cheltenham NRNB Handicap Hurdle 3m 58y
One stable that has really hit form in recent weeks is that of Philip Hobbs and Johnson White, with the stable sending out 27 runners since Christmas. Of that number, a remarkable dozen have won. One of those winners was Tiny Tetley, who showed a tremendously willing attitude to prevail in a staying handicap hurdle at Taunton, after losing his position after halfway. He probably wasn’t helped by racing along the inside that day, helping set a strong pace and producing a strong burst, when switched outside the runner-up in the straight. He can win again on that evidence.
Windsor Sunday
1.55 Fitzdares Great Park Handicap Chase 2m 33y
Matata has a lot of weight to carry, but for good reason, and he is taken to make all against some rivals who have more to prove than him. Matata won well at Cheltenham in November and was just caught out by the stiff finish over two miles and a furlong at Kelso last time. He is an out-and-out two-miler and that will make him hard to beat at this speed-favouring track.
Crebilly is arguably the most interesting of Matata’s rivals, assuming Martator runs at Ascot rather than here, but he needs further than this trip. It will be interesting to see how his jumping holds out at the pace they go here, as that has been an issue for him in the past, including when placed in the Festival Plate at Cheltenham in March. He would make plenty of appeal in that contest should his jumping be sharpened up, so he’s one to keep an eye on.
2.30 Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap Hurdle 3m
Titan Discovery caught the eye in the aforementioned Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his return and, with trainer Robbie Llewellyn now in better form, he’s taken to build on the promise he showed there. A progressive and consistent handicapper last season, Titan Discovery retains some scope for better and will probably jump a fence in time, but he’s well enough treated to go close in a race which ought to be run to suit. The slight question is stamina being untested beyond two miles and five furlongs, but this shouldn’t be a severe test at the trip and he’s worth chancing on that front.
3.05 Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase 2m 6f 41y
Djelo could put himself into the picture for the Ryanair if winning here, and it’s hard to see last year’s Ryanair hero Protektorat reversing Peterborough Chase form, given how easily the unexposed Djelo won at Huntingdon. He is a reliable sort, who has clearly improved from a promising novice campaign and should prove hard to beat again.
Recommended
Josh The Boss 2.50 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (general – 4 places)
Mr Vango 2.30 Haydock – 2pts win @ 5/2 (general)
Tiny Tetley 3.05 Haydock – 1pt e/w @ 11/2 (Sky Bet 5 places – 6/1 general 4 places)
Sunday
Titan Discovery 2.30 Windsor – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (general – 4 places)