Newmarket Saturday

1.30 British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap 1m 2f

The going is softish ahead of Newmarket’s Sun Chariot card, but the weather will be dry for 48 hours and, given how quickly it dried from heavy to yielding last week, I’d expect it to ride no worse than the slow side of good, assuming the forecast is correct, of course.

The opening handicap is very open and I’m loth to back anything at short odds in a race where there is no standout.

Karmology is one who may be overpriced, based on a rare poor run last time, and she has every chance on the form of her York win in July. It’s possible that the firmish ground was too quick for her last time, and she’s best with a little ease underfoot.

Another who is easy to forgive a poor run last time is Canoodled, that coming in a swamp at Newbury two weeks ago, but Ed Walker’s mare has shown that she stays 10 furlongs this term, and she tends to save her very best efforts for Newmarket, and her course record (outside of seasonal debut) reads 1241316, with those runs coming at seven furlongs/mile.

Canoodled can spoil her chance over shorter by starting slowly, but that’s less of an issue over this longer trip, and she stayed the distance strongly when winning a competitive handicap at York’s Ebor meeting on her first try at a mile and a quarter.

2.05 £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes 6f

It’s possible that low draws will be favoured, given the stalls are placed on the far side of the track, but with a big field it’s never easy to be adamant, and it’s often worth identifying where the sustained speed will be instead.

I’m hoping that speed will come from the classy Twafeeg, who looked good when beating subsequent Duchess of Cambridge Stakes winner Arabian Dusk on debut at Doncaster, making all.

She was – somewhat curiously – held up when seventh in the Albany Stakes won by Fairy Godmother next time, shaping better than the bare result in a very strong contest, and could prove a class apart, if her absence since doesn’t hide any nasty surprises.

The lack of a run means it’s not easy to back Twafeeg with confidence, but she should ensure that those drawn high have a decent pace to chase, and that brings Fleetwater into the equation.

Drawn 17 to Twafeeg’s 19, Fleetwater has the ability to keep tabs on that filly and she shaped much better than the result in a similar race to this at Goodwood last time. On that occasion, she was taken on a roundabout journey to get the stands rail at Goodwood, and the lengths she wasted getting there were not worth the tiny benefit she may have received.

Prior to that, she split Miss Nightfall and Sayidah Dariyan at Windsor. The winner was second in that Goodwood contest, while the third won by a huge margin at Lingfield in maiden company and will have run in the Legacy Stakes at Dundalk by the time you read this.

I’m hoping the form will be franked there and think that Fleetwater may have been underestimated by the oddsmakers due to her defeat last time.

2.40 Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) 1m

Tamfana gets the vote in the Group 1 feature, but somewhat by default, as it’s not easy backing anything from the John and Thady Gosden yard in current form, which makes me wary of Nashwa and Inspiral, and the only two to make serious appeal are Tamfana and Strensall Stakes winner See The Fire.

Oisin Murphy was on board Tamfana in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown, and on See The Fire in the Strensall, but appears to prefer the latter here, and that might put some off. I suspect that has as much to do with his relationship to Andrew Balding and owner Jeff Smith, as his idea of which is the best filly.

Make no mistake, however, as See The Fire is the other to arrive here on top form, but she has done her progressing since stepping up in trip from a mile, whereas I thought Tamfana benefitted from the return to a mile, having failed to get home against Sosie in the Grand Prix du Paris.

Ascot Saturday

1.50 BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) 5f

The black type races at Ascot today are all trappy and complicated by the fact that the ground will be drying from what was officially heavy on Friday. My view is that it won’t be worse than good to soft, but is likely to ride dead, which won’t suit many.

Democracy Dilemma would prefer a slightly sharper test, but he did win the Beverley Bullet two starts back and simply set off too enthusiastically at Newbury last time, when less than half a length behind Relief Rally in the Dubai International Airport World Trophy.

He’s several times her price here, and I’d give them similar chances on paper, pointing out that she never threatened to win at Newbury, only closing up late, whereas Democracy Dilemma looked the likeliest winner until beginning to tire a furlong out.

He can do better on drying ground and, while Ascot isn’t ideal for him, he’s arguably the best of these on recent evidence and has held his form really well all season.

2.25 BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) 1m 3f 211y

With Hamish running well below his usual consistent level on his last two starts, this may well develop into a match between Al Qareem and Al Aasy. I like the latter and have argued that he gets unfair criticism given his prolific record at this level of competition, but he was beaten on merit by Al Qareem in this race last year, and may have to play second fiddle again.

Al Qareem needs no introduction in this column and did us proud when winning at Chester last time, a race he also won last year before following up here. With Karl Burke in fine form, there is no reason to desert his charge with conditions identical to 12 months ago.

3.00 John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) 6f

There are more negatives that positives in the Bengough Stakes and, while it’s tempting to give one more chance to English Oak, he’s caused a few burnt fingers already and I’m not keen on burning too many more.

The return to six furlongs may be a help given how well he travels, but it’s also possible that everything dropped just right for him at Royal Ascot and that the result flatters him a little.

Purosangue will appreciate whatever moisture remains in the ground and is a pretty reliable sort when getting his toe in, as he showed when a game second to Quinault at York last time.

The worry is that listed races might be more his level, but he’s more likely than most to show his form, unlike the maddening Vadream, for example, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t give it a good go.

3.35 BetMGM Challenge Cup 7f

Now we’re talking! I was beginning to lose hope at Ascot until looking at the Challenge Cup, but hope springs eternal when looking at big-field Ascot handicaps, and the size of the field is an important part of the puzzle here.

The track is divided in half for this meeting, with a rail running up the centre from the mile post to the junction with the round track. That matters not a jot in most races, but when the field is big and the ground soft then there is an enormous advantage in racing against that middle rail, and then crossing gradually to the far side when the cutaway ends.

That has been amply demonstrated in two of the last three years, when those who have crossed to the far side of the track have dominated.

In 2021, Aldaary (stall 2) was one of only three horses to cross to the rail, and he and Symbolize (4) continued to tack across to the far rail in the latter stages, finishing first and second and finishing an extraordinary seven and a half lengths clear of Fresh in third. In 2022, the entire field tried to make the same manoeuvre, with Escobar (stall 6) showing the best speed after the cutaway to get to the far rail ahead of Mum’s Tipple (3).

Last year, on quick ground, the field split in two with the high draws favoured, but I’m hoping that the recent wet weather means that the quickest ground is again on the far side, and it’s also good news that two of the lowest drawn runners have the ability to dominate this race from flagfall.

Volterra has a big chance from stall 2 if coping with softish ground, but he’s untried on such a surface and, while he can still play a big part in shaping the contest, the confident vote goes to the unexposed Germanic, representing William Haggas, who also trained Aldaary and therefore sure to be aware of the potential advantage of his draw in stall 4.

Germanic should have won on his handicap debut at Doncaster, skipping clear mid-race and trading 3/1-on in the run, but just finding his early exertions telling in the last furlong. He was equipped with cheekpieces there and they caused him to over-race through the early stages, but he certainly looked ahead of his mark.

He’s 2lb higher in future, which is generous enough, but can run off his old mark in this early closer. I was impressed with his power at Doncaster and, although still rather raw, he looks a high-class prospect for next year and has been handed a very attractive opening here.

Canoodled 1.30 Newmarket – 1pt e/w 33/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power - 4 places; 28/1 general)

Fleetwater 2.05 Newmarket – 1pt e/w 28/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power - 5 places; 4 places general)

Germanic 3.35 Ascot – 2pts e/w 8/1 (Bet365 - 5 places; 7/1 general)