Newmarket Saturday

1.15 British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Jersey Lily’ Fillies’ Nursery 7f

Naina is the only one of these to have won on soft ground and she’s worthy of mention despite that coming in a moderate affair at Brighton. John Ryan’s filly has scored twice since and impressed with her attitude when landing a weaker nursery at Yarmouth last time. This is a massive hike in class for her, but she’s thriving and that is an important consideration at this time of year.

I’d be less keen on Ghost Run in terms of the ground as the offspring of Kameko seem to be at their best on quick ground, and those who have run on yielding or softer have been unsighted.

The one I fancy has most scope of these, is recent Thirsk winner Magic Love who needed every yard of six furlongs to get on top when landing a gamble on nursery debut and appeals as the type to keep progressing as she gets more of a test.

Her ability to handle the ground is taken on trust, but she’s sure to progress for the longer trip and is one to keep on side in the longer term.

1.50 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) 1m

I’m a big fan of Wimbledon Hawkeye but comments made previously about sons of Kameko apply here to him and Hawksbill, while Angelo Buonarroti has such a good action, as seen when winning the Convivial Maiden at York, that I would be concerned about him on the surface.

Luther is a half-brother to a useful filly who handled the mud in Good Gracious, so is respected after an impressive win at Haydock, and Puppet Master won on soft ground at Galway, but I prefer the claims of Law Of Design who improved to land a seven-furlong novice at Ascot last time, beating a subsequent winner, with the 90-rated Angel Hunter (a nursery winner at the Ebor meeting) back in third.

That bare form marks him down as useful already and he gave the impression that he would progress again at a mile. The son of Sottsass coped well with soft ground at Ascot and could offer vale in a race where plenty have a point to prove in conditions.

2.25 Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

Another Group 1 contest in which few of the runners have shown their ability to cope with ground which will be cloying at best, and while Babouche appears to hold outstanding claims, her form is all on top of the ground, and I struggle to make an argument that she will definitely cope with it. On top of that, Ger Lyons has a poor record with his runners at Newmarket, with just one winner and three placed in total from 27 runners at the track.

I’m not convinced a drop to six furlongs is a positive for Lake Victoria, who will definitely stay a mile and I’m inclined to have a small play on Rayevka, who won by a wide margin on her second start having gone under by a short neck on debut at Deauville. Her form is largely untested, but the fact that the shrewd Francis Graffard brings her over is significant.

3.00 Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

Whistlejacket makes most appeal in a Middle Park that fails to set the pulse racing. He won very impressively on soft ground at the Curragh in May and it was also on the easy side when he landed the July Stakes.

He was below form when beaten on firm ground in the Norfolk Stakes and was no match for Babouche in a quick-ground Phoenix Stakes before bouncing back to land the Prix Morny from Rashabar and Daylight. He seems to need some ease underfoot so should relish conditions, but he’s a token choice at a shade of odds-on.

3.40 Bet365 Cambridgeshire

1m 1f

The last time the Cambridgeshire was run on really testing ground was in 1960, and there have only been a couple of soft-ground runnings in the last thirty years. It’s perhaps significant that the principals have raced on the far side of the track for all three of those races (yes, I did dig out a photo of the 1960 winner Midsummer Night to verify that).

I think the very low draws could be advantageous while high numbers have had the best of things in recent times, and the jockeys migrated to the stands rail for Friday’s opener, clearly believing the best of the ground is close to that rail. Those marooned in the middle may be the ones at the biggest disadvantage.

I’ve taken big prices about Waiting All Night here despite the fact he’s unproven on the ground and distance, and while that may seem at odds with my approach elsewhere, I’m convinced that Richard Spencer’s gelding has been crying out for this sort of trip, and despite being campaigned largely over seven furlongs, his very best effort came when running on strongly to score over a mile here two starts ago on good ground.

He showed a good attitude that day and was going on well at the finish, suggesting that this trip (which he is bred for) could bring out a bit more improvement. His record at seven furlongs plus at Newmarket reads 2424121.

If the low numbers have the best of it, then I would want to be with James McHenry at current odds. Drawn in stall two, he has Balmacara and Liberty Lane for company either side of him and that trio could help each other forcing the pace on the far rail. James McHenry is admirably consistent and won on soft ground at Ripon last year. At 40/1, he’s worth a saver.

Haydock Saturday

1.30 Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap 1m 37y

It’s probably best to be drawn low here, with the track only able to accommodate 10 runners, and that would be a concern for Wednesday’s Goodwood winner Rhoscolyn. He handles very deep ground well, but it’s worth noting that all five of his handicap wins in the mud have come at Goodwood.

Raadobarg also handles the mud but is becoming less reliable with age and ran a stinker in blinkers at Leicester in May on heavy going. He now tries a visor, which may reignite his enthusiasm, but looks risky. One who isn’t proven in the ground but is very much bred for it is the unexposed Skipper, who is out of an unraced half-sister to Kinross, herself out of Ceilidh House, who gained both her wins on soft ground.

Skipper was fourth in a very deep maiden at Newmarket in June behind subsequent Group 3 winner Ombudsman and followed that with an excellent second to Victorious Street at Southwell where the first two pulled miles clear and the third and fourth have won since. He scored at Chelmsford last time when odds-on, and the collateral form of his wins suggests that a mark of 92 is not at all harsh.

3.15 My Pension Expert

Handicap 5f

Wiltshire has a decent race in him, but he’s missed a few engagements since winning impressively at Newcastle in June, and testing ground is an unknown. These are also very different conditions for Silky Wilkie after his back-to-form effort in the Ayr Gold Cup. He’s not certain to respond so well to a visor a second time, either.

Aberama Gold hasn’t fired this year but hasn’t really had his conditions, and it’s worth bearing in mind that he is unbeaten in sprint handicaps on ground described as heavy, most recently defying a mark of 96 over five furlongs at Doncaster last October. A blank since that excellent effort has seen him drop to 85, and all his turf runs in the interim have come on good or quicker ground. His usual visor is swapped for blinkers here, and he’s worth chancing to return to his recent best.

Recommended:

Law Of Design 1:50 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power – 12/1 general)

Rayevka 2:25 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power)

Waiting All Night 3:40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (general, 6 places)

James McHenry 3:40 Newmarket – 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 (Coral, 6 places – Ladbrokes, 5 places)

Skipper 1:30 Haydock – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Betvictor, Coral – 6/1 general)

Aberama Gold 3:15 Haydock – 9/2 (Bet365, Paddy Power – 4/1 general)