Haydock Saturday

1:55 CasumHorse Racing And Sports Betting Handicap 7f 37y

I fancy that the low and middle-drawn horses will have the edge over high in this handicap, based on historical trends, and with Haydock not the easiest place to come from off the pace unless the field spreads out in the straight, the pair with pace in the lower half of the draw, namely Ffion and Lincoln Park, are the two to focus on.

The first-named of that pair is the most interesting, given she improved for her first taste of turf racing here last time, doing much the best of the highest drawn trio when second to subsequent winner Boardman over track and trip last time.

As well as Boardman’s win off a 5lb higher mark next time, there are positives to glean from how far away she came off the favourite the last day given that pair raced together, and Dave Loughnane’s filly looks capable of scoring from an unchanged mark.

The ground will be heavy here, but it was much the same for that turf debut, and she must be open to progress after just three lifetime starts.

2:25 Download The Casumo App Today Handicap 2m 45y

This staying handicap looks fairly open, but, while most of these can be said to handle soft ground, only three have won on such a surface, and of those, the mare Vindolanda has got much the most attractive profile.

All four of her wins have come on rain-softened ground, and her lifetime record with ease underfoot reads 311814321, with the apparent blip when over-faced in listed company.

She put up a career-best effort when winning in the mud at Nottingham in October, and is just 1lb higher now. She can hardly be blamed for a modest run on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton six weeks ago, but she was far from disgraced, and arrives here with plenty in her favour.

Vindolanda has only raced once at this trip, and she stayed on well to be beaten a length and a half into second by Future Investment at Chester last August. He’s been unplaced on all three starts since, while she went on to win off a higher mark at Nottingham.

Despite that, she has a 2lb pull at the weights, and yet his twice his price. Go figure.

3:00 Join Casumo Today Silver Bowl Handicap 1m 37y

As tough a race as there is on the card, with conditions not really helping to sort the wheat from the chaf,f given few can be deemed ineffective on soft or heavy ground.

The form of the Leicester novice won by Raadobarg has already worked out, with the fourth-placed Jewel In My Crown winning by three and a half lengths on her handicap debut at Brighton on Tuesday off a mark of 71. Raadobarg was giving her 5lb at Leicester and beat her by almost five lengths, and he coped well with soft ground when defying a penalty at Thirsk.

This is the Roger Varian-trained colt’s first try in a handicap and, while 88 looked fair enough when the weights came out for this contest, that easy win by Jewel In My Crown adds serious gloss to his earlier win.

I think he’s capable of winning off his opening mark, while he’s a straightforward ride, so should not be hard for Jack Mitchell to put the horse where he wants here.

3:35 Casumo Bet10Get10 Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) 6f

Dragon Bay will be hard to beat if handling the much softer ground having made a big impression at Hamilton last time, and he could be a top-notcher given the style of that victory.

At the prices, though, I’m looking for an each-way alternative, and the one who catches my eye is The Lir Jet, who ran a cracker in the Greenham on his return, and who will be better suited by a strongly run race back at six furlongs.

A smart and reliable juvenile last year, he proved at Newbury that he had trained on well, and his sire Prince Of Lir’s progeny have developed an excellent record on soft and heavy ground, albeit from limited numbers.

4:10 Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Temple Stakes (Group 2) 5f

It’s dangerous to overrate the form of the Prix de L’Abbaye in which Liberty Beach, Lady In France and Keep Busy finished third, fourth and fifth last October, and it should be remembered that the race looked a substandard renewal at the time.

Lady In France was a rather underwhelming 10th in the Duke of York Stakes in her return, which serves as a warning about trusting that French form, but Keep Busy had several other efforts last season which make her of particular interest here, most notably when second at Royal Ascot behind Art Power, and when filling the same spot in the Flying Five at the Curragh on her penultimate start, beaten just half a length by 2019 Abbaye winner Glass Slippers.

Keep Busy has an excellent record on soft or heavy ground, which is no surprise as her dam Look Busy was a tough mudder herself, and improved with age for Alan Berry.

Keep Busy is cut from the same cloth, and appeals as the type to take her form up another notch this year, which gives her a narrow edge over stable companion Liberty Beach.

Recommended

Ffion 1:55 Haydock – 2pts win, 11/2 (Bet365, Hills, BetVictor)

Vindolanda 2:25 Haydock – 1pt e/w, 14/1 (Bet365, 12/1 Hills, BetVictor)

Raadobarg 3:00 Haydock – 1pt win, 11/4 (general)

The Lir Jet 3:35 Haydock – 1pt e/w, 15/2 (Hills, BetVictor)

Keep Busy 4:10 Haydock – 3pt win, 10/3 (general)