Newcastle Saturday

1.50 Pertemps Network Handicap 6f

Strike Red was back to form after a couple of below-par runs when a close fourth at Hamilton last time, and Richard Fahey’s four-year-old will benefit from a return to Newcastle, where his record reads two wins from two runs in sprint handicaps.

The second of those wins came last summer off 4lb lower, but he’s more than capable of winning from his current perch, as a head second to Bickerstaffe at Ascot in October shows.

Oisin Orr is the young jockey Fahey favours to take the bulk of the rides for the stable after Paul Hanagan’s retainer was cancelled earlier in the summer, and he got a good tune out of Strike Red at Hamilton.

That was a similar contest to this in terms of prestige and competitiveness, if not better, and the pair who finished immediately behind him have both landed handicaps since – he meets one of them, Tipperary Tiger on 3lb better terms now.

With a good draw in the centre, and a workable handicap mark, it is hard to see past Strike Red, who is sure to make a bold showing.

2.25 Pertemps Network Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) 6f

Glen Shiel was a last-minute withdrawal in the Platinum Jubilee due to the quick ground, and that can prove a blessing in disguise as he drops in class for a race which should suit much better. The eight-year-old has two wins and a second to his name in three runs over course and distance, showing improvement on his previous form at the time.

He’s arguably not quite as good as he was, but that looked the case last term until he finished an excellent second in the British Champions Sprint at Ascot in October, an effort franked by the winner’s excellent second in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes. That was a race he won the previous year, and he is out of the top drawer when getting his preferred conditions.

Glen Shiel has form beyond a mile, and needs a stiff test at this trip, with Ascot and Newcastle providing the most suitable scenario for his profile; his combined record at those tracks reads 2111252, and he’s worth backing now to enhance his excellent course record.

3.30 Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap 2m 56yds

I was very sweet on Trueshan in this contest last year, but he couldn’t win off a lower mark, and that is largely due to the fact that races over this course and distance tend to falsely run, and if Alan King’s star is to defy a mark of 120 this time, he would be better off trying to make his own running.

I prefer to take a chance on Valley Forge at the weights and prices. Last year’s Melrose Stakes winner is well-suited by big-field handicaps on that showing, and can be forgiven one or two lesser efforts as he seems to need quick ground to show his form on turf.

He was back to his best when winning over this trip at Haydock last time, and a wide draw here is not a problem given his run style, or indeed how this race has panned out in recent years.

It’s important to have a turn of foot in the Northumberland Plate these days, as the tactical nature of the contest means stamina alone is not enough, and Valley Forge has the ideal blend of staying power and tactical speed to ensure this race shows him to advantage.

Newmarket Saturday

2.05 Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) 6f

Frankie Dettori will be keen to ride a winner this weekend given the speculation regarding his position at the Gosden yard, but he will be on a happier footing here, riding for a personal friend in the shape of Marc Chan.

He looks to have a fine chance of winning this listed race aboard the exciting Lezoo, who overcame a poor position to make a winning debut at Bath a fortnight ago, beating Cuban Mistress with much more to spare than a length margin.

The daughter of Zoustar was in receipt of weight from the penalised Cuban Mistress at Bath, and this is obviously tougher, but she was given an educational ride, and had plenty of ground to make up on the prominently ridden winner with a furlong left at Bath, while an extra furlong will also see her progress.

She should have this race run to suit, too, as main rivals Malrescia and Minnetonka made all to score on their latest starts (Minnetonka also on her debut), and that pair should be prominent again. If they go head-to-head, that will be an added bonus, but an honest pace is enough to consider Lezoo the bet at current odds.

2.40 House Of Cavani Fred Archer Stakes (Listed) 1m 4f

Universal Order won this corresponding event two years ago before an absence from the track, and he looked at least as good as ever when an unlucky second to Contact in handicap company at Haydock four weeks ago. The winner went on to be placed at Royal Ascot, as did the fourth, while the third has since scored at Goodwood.

Universal Order missed the break and then had to wait for a gap in the straight when travelling well, conceding first run to the winner as a result. This is - on paper at least - a tougher task, but it’s not a very deep listed contest, and the top-rated runner arrives with serious questions to answer having run well below form on both starts this year.

Stowell ran well enough when sixth in the Copper Horse Handicap at the royal meeting, and might benefit from the return to one and a half miles, but he shouldn’t be shorter than the selection on any formline, and he was last of five in the Bahrain Trophy on his only previous start at Newmarket.

3.15 House Of Cavani Criterion Stakes (Group 3) 7f

It’s generally considered that (poor old) Frankie gave Sunray Major too much to do when the Gosden horse finished a very close fourth to Pogo in the John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock last time.

Given there was less than half a length between the first four that day, it’s hard to argue that the fast-finishing Sunray Major might not have won in different circumstances.

On the other hand, Pogo is a straightforward ride who is able to get first run because he can be positioned in a race exactly how his rider wants, and on top of that, he has a very consistent record at Newmarket, with lifetime form figures reading 11222.

His last two seconds here have come in Group 2 company, and while conceding 3lb to Sunray Major and Laneqash won’t be easy on the ratings, the race still looks like it will set up better for him than his main rivals, and he looks the value as a result.

Recommended

Pogo 3.15 Newmarket – 2pts win at 11/2 (Bet365, 5/1 general)

Strike Red 1.50 Newcastle – 1pt win at 9/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Boyles)

Glen Shiel 2.25 Newcastle – 1pt win at 6/1 (general)

Valley Forge 3.00 Newcastle – 2pts e/w at 13/2 (Hills, SkyBet – 7 places)