12:45 Ladbrokes Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase 2m 4f 110y

It’s tempting to side again with Es Perfecto, who is able to run in this race for a second year having looked a little unlucky not to go close last year under a hold-up ride and he got it right from a reduced mark here on his return.

The handicapper hasn’t been harsh with him mark just 2lb higher than when second to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham last November and he ought to go well again.

That said, the horse who appeals as being potentially well ahead of his mark here is Leader In The Park about whom a decent price can also be had after an inauspicious chase debut at Cheltenham behind Peaky Boy.

For whatever reason, Leader In The Park didn’t look himself that day and his defeat seemed unrelated to the bigger obstacles, which ought to suit given his background and he jumped very well on the whole at Cheltenham, travelling better than the eventual winner at the top of the hill, but finding little when let down.

I’m happy to take a chance that Leader In The Park wasn’t 100% that day and he has always looked like a horse who would outstrip his hurdles form when put to fences, so this looks a very nice spot for him, especially if connections decide to revert to the front-running tactics which suit him so well, acknowledging that there are others who will happily adopt that role in this field.

13:20 Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m

The Jukebox Man can hopefully complete a double for Pauling and Ben Jones in the Kauto Star. Last year’s Albert Bartlett runner-up looks tailor-made for this test having won the John Francome at Newbury on his chase debut when his only real blemish was a tendency to hang to his right up the straight when in front.

He’s never raced right-handed under Rules, but looks like he should be suited by racing this way round, and it’s worth pointing out that he won on his only point start at the Golden Vale in Turtulla, a tight, right-handed circuit.

The Jukebox Man looked – like a lot from his stable this autumn – as if he would benefit from the run in the Newbury paddock, and he should be at concert-pitch now, making him almost impossible to oppose with a fast three miles sure to suit.

13:55 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

For most mortals, the Christmas Hurdle isn’t a betting race, and the bottom line is that the betting close to the off will provide the best clue, with Constitution Hill more than good enough to beat Lossiemouth if back to his best, but his well-being likely to be reflected more by the late market moves than any announcement from Seven Barrows.

His win in this race last year was impressive, with his slick jumping allowing him to cruise to the lead, but whether he’s the same horse now is clearly a matter of debate with illness and injury intervening since then.

None of the issues that have kept him off the track have been serious, in truth, but for a horse who found things so easy in his first two seasons, he has either become very fragile, or his trainer has become even more risk-averse.

Either way, he’s become Schrodinger’s racehorse – simultaneously impossible to back and impossible to oppose until the box is opened.

14:30 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) 3m

Only two horses interest me in the King George, and I worry that one might be withdrawn on ground likely to ride close to good on the day.

The outstanding choice is Spillane’s Tower, whose strong-finishing second to Fact To File in the John Durkan Memorial represents the best piece of recent form on offer, and he has the perfect blend of speed and stamina needed to win this contest.

Jimmy Mangan has stated that he won’t run if there isn’t some dig in the ground, but it won’t be any softer at Leopardstown where he holds a Savill’s Chase entry, and I think Kempton is the better option for him with the track sure to suit him based on the Durkan run and his defeat of Monty’s Star in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown.

Should Mangan decide to scratch Spillane’s Tower, I’d look to play The Real Whacker each-way. He is a simple horse to get a handle on in that he is a superb jumper on good ground but not so effective when the ground is testing, and while not disgraced in this a year ago, he is capable of much better on the surface he will tackle here, as he showed when right back to his best in the Charlie Hall.

It’s also a massive plus that Pat Neville has found a rich vein of form from his new yard in Leyburn, North Yorkshire.

Chepstow Friday

2:50 Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase 3m 6f 130y

It’s not easy picking apart Kempton’s Friday card without declarations, but the Welsh National won’t change much between now and declarations, and it’s got a good shape to it for betting, as is always the case with the big Chepstow handicap.

Again, there are two I like at this stage, one solid, and one a bit more left-field. The solid option is previous winner and last year’s third Iwilldoit, who is effectively racing off a mark of 140 when the excellent Callum Pritchard’s claim is accounted for, and he’s not only 6lb lower in the official ratings than he was a year ago but won this race off a mark of 140 two seasons ago.

Very lightly raced for his age, he showed in two subsequent starts last term that he’s as good as ever, albeit in need of a thorough test of stamina to show his best.

At a much bigger price, I also want to have a swing at the lightly-raced six-year-old Atlanta Brave, who looked just the sort for this race when placed in the Mandarin Chase over three and a quarter at Newbury a year ago.

He’s not reproduced that effort in a period where his yard has been out of form, but there have been better signs recently from both him and Kerry Lee’s yard as a whole, and the Lee stable know just what it takes to win this race, with Mountainous and Le Beau Bai successful for Kerry’s father in the recent past. Le Beau Bai was one of the first really good horses to represent owner Will Roseff, who has both Atlanta Brace and Not Sure among this year’s entries.

This looks a proper plan for the former, who has no weight on his back and is capable of much better than he’s shown now tackling a marathon trip.

It will strictly be better to wait for declaration before betting in the Welsh National, and I would take a couple of points shorter on both selections for the benefit of an extra place or two from the firms.

Leader In The Park 12:45 Kempton – 1pts win 9/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)

The Jukebox Man 1:20 Kempton – 2pts win 11/10 (general)

Spillane’s Tower 2:30 Kempton – 2pts win 7/2 (general)

Iwilldoit 2:50 Chepstow – 1pt e/w 12/1 (general)

Atlanta Brave 2:50 Chepstow –

1pt e/w 25/1 (general)