Ascot Saturday

1.20 British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) 1m 7f 127y

It’s hard to oppose Kyprios for win purposes, but it’s harder to recommend backing odds-on favourites at a fixture which consistently throws up end-of-season shocks, and I’d prefer to look for an each-way angle.

Al Nayyir is perhaps flattered by the margin of his win in the Rose Bowl Stakes at Newmarket last time, but that run showed that he is very much at home on soft ground, and heavy rain on Saturday morning is likely to ensure this is a test.

In truth, there are several other efforts on his card that make Al Nayyir look a solid option here, notably his short-head second to Vauban in the Lonsdale Cup at York on debut for Tom Clover and, despite being with five different trainers since last spring, he has kept his form really well, with his only disappointment coming on his sole outing for Julien Carayon at Longchamp in May.

He had three months off after that run and arrives fresher than most for this test, which can be crucial as winter approaches.

1.55 British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 6f

The draw hasn’t been easy to predict in the straight track races at this meeting, but any apparent track bias tends to go hand in hand with the pace, and a key feature is that it seems harder to make up ground on winter ground than when conditions are quick, with jockeys tending to ride with more restraint knowing conditions will place more emphasis on stamina.

Last year, Art Power made most and rallied to win, and that despite his draw in stall 1 being deemed a negative, which ended up being to his advantage as he raced on his own.

I doubt he’s in the form to win again, but he is a crucial pace angle and the best of the speed is high, with only Audience an obvious front-runner for those drawn low to middle, and whether that horse has the speed to blaze a trail at six furlongs is open to debate. That puts me off obvious pick Montassib, who needs a strong pace to aim at and could be drawn out of things from his position.

Five of the last 11 winners of this contest had been beaten in the Sprint Cup at Haydock and that stat stands out as significant. Both Art Power and Kinross won this after racing on ‘Arc’ weekend, but the six weeks since Haydock is a nice break between races, while the stiffer track at Ascot can often see Sprint Cup form turned on its head.

Two of these caught the eye behind Montassib in the Haydock contest, with Kind Of Blue appealing only a little more than Flora Of Bermuda.

Kind Of Blue continued his run-to-run progress by going down fighting there, while Flora Of Bermuda – who tracked Kind Of Blue initially - got trapped behind the weakening Givemethebeatboys at a crucial stage before running on late and was better than the bare result.

She is proven on soft ground, but while Kind Of Blue hasn’t raced on anything softer than good, that is a function of his short career to date rather than a desire to keep him to faster conditions. This is his first autumn of racing, so he’s simply never raced when conditions have been testing. His sire Blue Point has a better strike-rate on ground softer than good than on quicker going, so there’s every chance he will be even better with some dig.

2.35 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) 1m 3f 133y

Kalpana may be the one to beat based on her easy win in the September Stakes, but Andrew Balding’s filly has been on the go since January and has had just a 50-day break before Kempton last time, so must run the risk of going over the top for the season. She’s also shown her best turf form with the word ‘firm’ in the going description, and is far from certain to handle conditions.

Tiffany is a filly I like enormously, and she will be suited by this trip on soft ground, as she showed when winning a Group 2 in Germany under similar conditions on her latest start.

A most taking winner of the Hoppings Stakes at Newcastle in June, she can be forgiven her defeat behind Queen Of The Pride in the Lancashire Oaks after slipping on the home bend (racing subsequently abandoned due to false ground) and I would be confident that she could turn that form around now.

The fitting of cheekpieces would normally be a slight concern for me, but given Tiffany is coming off a ready win, and that Sir Mark Prescott has a near 28% strike-rate when fitting such headgear for the first time, I’m not complaining and the daughter of Farhh should give a bold sight once more.

3.15 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) 1m

Charyn is another one who has been on the go all season with only a short break, and that’s reason enough to desert him in the QEII, for all he’s performed with credit ever since landing the Doncaster Mile on the opening day of the turf season.

I prefer Tamfana of those prominent in the betting, but with a distinct sense of déjà vu, I’m looking elsewhere for a betting opportunity.

Fourth in the Champion Stakes two years ago and filling the same spot in this corresponding contest 12 months ago, Checkandchallenge clearly thrives in the autumn, as he showed when winning a listed race at Newmarket last November.

He’s been frustrating it must be admitted, but has often faced very stiff tasks, and a gelding operation in the summer has seen him back to his very best on recent starts, running well in the Strensall Stakes at York and finishing a solid second to Skellett at Sandown last time.

Much more will be needed to win this contest, and Checkandchallenge will most likely be ridden to pick up the pieces, but his chance of hitting the frame is solid and I’ll be backing him place only and in exotics to take advantage of his usual run style.

It’s encouraging that he’s looked more enthusiastic since being gelded and swapping a visor for cheekpieces on his last two starts, but the cherry on the cake is the booking of Christophe Soumillon.

Soumillon has only ridden Checkandchallenge once before, and on that occasion the pair proved too strong for Facteur Cheval in the Prix Daphnis at Deauville, a run that looks better in hindsight, with the runner-up a Group 1 winner since and a good second in this race last term.

3.55 Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 2f

Calandagan proved he could do on fast ground at Royal Ascot what he’s been doing on soft in France, which is make his rivals look slow when unleashing a devastating turn of foot.

He did remarkably well to get so close to City Of Troy in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York last time, the only horse who made any significant headway from off the pace.

Take the well-ridden winner out of that race, and Calandagan looked an absolute superstar, and there is a simple reason for that. It’s that he is an absolute superstar, and he gets a confident vote to gain the first of many Group 1 wins here.

Economics is not taken lightly, but he was seen to excellent effect given how the race panned out in the Irish Champion Stakes and, while he gave generously to prevail in a close finish, I think he will find Calandagan a tougher rival than Auguste Rodin, with a line through Ghostwriter - less than two lengths behind at Leopardstown, but three and a half lengths in arrears of Calandagan at York - backing that notion up, despite the fact that Ghostwriter got first run on Calandagan in the International.

4.35 Balmoral Handicap 1m

There isn’t much pace across the track here, so it’s no surprise that Thunder Run is favourite, having made all to win the Clipper Logistics Handicap at York last time, beating Mirsky, who was always close up.

That pair should again be favoured by the relative lack of pace amongst the opposition and are drawn close to one another on the stands side.

Thunder Run is likely to confirm form, given he’s entirely unexposed, but Mirsky has a 3lb swing and caught the eye keeping on from the worst of the draw here two weeks ago, and looks overpriced at 33/1.

I think the pace amongst those drawn high should see those on the stands side dominate, and Lincoln runner-up Lattam is the other runner to consider.

Julie Camacho’s gelding was coming off an absence when second at Doncaster and has only raced twice since.

The fact he’s not been seen since running in the Seaton Delaval Stakes at Newcastle in June is no concern, and he’s potentially well berthed widest of all.

Recommended:

Al Nayyir 1.20 – 1pt e/w 7/1 (BetVictor, Boyles)

Kind Of Blue 1.55 – 1pt win 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral – 12/1 general)

Tiffany 2.35 – 1pt e/w 8/1 (Bet365, Hills – 4 places)

Checkandchallenge 3.15 – 1pt place only (Tote odds)

Calandagan 4.00 – 4pts win 13/8 (general)

Mirsky 4.35 – 0.5pts e/w 33/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Corals – 5 places)