Ayr Saturday
1:50 Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed) 1m2f
Ayr certainly suits front runners, and Pride Of America looks to have a decent chance of dominating in the Doonside Cup. More rain would help, but it’s soft in places at Ayr already, and the John Smith’s Cup winner looks the value call on his step back into blacktype competition.
2:25 Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap 6f
Woven was runner-up after rearing in the stalls in this race last season, and scored on heavy ground on his return at Doncaster, so is clearly oblivious to the ground as long as getting a strong pace to run at.
His strike-rate isn’t the greatest, and he’s only won one handicap on home soil while finishing second eight times in such races, so punters need to be aware of that, but he’s been bubbling under of late and remains on a workable mark, so ought to get into the frame once more.
3:00 Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Fillies, Group 3) 6f
Raqiya is the class act here and can win if she handles the ground, but that’s enough of a worry to stop me piling in at short odds, and it’s a watching brief only as a result.
3:35 Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (6f)
It’s hard to be dogmatic about ground or draw in the Ayr Gold Cup, and it’s a race I’m struggling to get a strong feel for.
I was impressed with Paws For Thought when he took the Scottish Stewards’ Cup having generally run over seven furlongs previously, and it’s easy enough to give him a pass for two subsequent runs at Chester, with a wide draw stopping him being able to dominate last time.
He handles all ground and the booking of Robert Whearty takes the eye with his 5lb allowance a positive on a horse who takes little knowing, being a point-and-shoot job in betting-shop parlance.
Probe is another who could bounce back from a couple of poor efforts back at six furlongs on softish ground. He played up before bombing out in the Wokingham, and was unsuited by the return to seven furlongs in the Bunbury Cup last time.
A winner on debut for Jennie Candlish off an eight-month absence at Wolverhampton, he may well have benefitted from a break since July, having given the impression that he’d gone over the top after a busy spell.
Newbury Saturday
1:30 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) 5f 34y
To some extent, this race revolves around Sense Of Duty, who looked to have the world at her feet when running away with the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last season, but she has clearly had her problems sense, and is only now seeing a racecourse again.
All her form is on either Tapeta or a sound turf surface, so there must be some doubt about her reappearing so late in the season and on an alien surface. She could outclass these rivals if back to her best, but I prefer to leave her alone given those travails.
Raasel turns out quickly after a narrow defeat in the Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster, and he’s clearly in good heart, but preference on the heavy ground is for Nymphadora, who showed her ability to handle deep ground when winning at Chester in May, and who is a straightforward sort who is sure to give her running again.
She has made limited impact against the top sprinters in the King George at Goodwood and Nunthorpe at York on recent starts, but this is more her level, and she looks competitive on form.
Her Chester win came off a handicap mark of 97, and it was just a listed race she won at York (beating Silky Wilkie) in July, so she has a little to find on ratings, but betting on ratings in the autumn, particularly when the ground changes, has broken stronger men than me.
2:05 Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap 1m 5f 61y
On one hand, it’s great to see the reintroduction of the autumn Handicap at Newbury after a lengthy absence, but it’s a little disappointing that it attracted relatively few entries, and I hope that’s not an ongoing issue at a meeting which tends to struggle for big fields in any case.
He’s a veteran these days, and long a law unto himself, but heavy ground holds no fears for Not So Sleepy, and he can turn back the clock with conditions very much in his favour.
His most impressive efforts over hurdles came when winning back-to-back renewals of what was the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot, and the ground was near bottomless both times.
He is equally talented on the flat, with several excellent efforts in the Cesarewitch to his name, and while this trip is arguably short of his best, the seep ground will compensate for that, and it’s worth recalling that he used to be effective over much shorter in his youth.
2:40 Dubai Duty Free Handicap 1m2f
Mustazeed makes most appeal in this mile and a quarter handicap, having coped well with similar ground when winning the Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Handicap over course and distance in the spring. He beat Time Interval and Tuxedo Junction that day, seeming to relish the testing ground, which was officially soft but described by Timeform as heavy.
Two previous handicap starts on soft or heavy ground have seen the son of Territories finish first and second, with both those efforts at Doncaster.
Given his ability to run so well on a galloping track when the ground is soft or worse, Mustazeed looks to have found a good opportunity here, and he’s preferred to Gaassee, who handles soft ground but could hardly be called a mudlark.
3:15 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 3) 6f
Haatem disappointed in the Gimcrack last time, but the drop to six furlongs on fast ground was firmly against him there, and the form of his Vintage Stakes win over Iberian was franked when the runner-up was an impressive winner of the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
He copes with soft ground, and has improved since getting a relative test of stamina, so ought to be seen to better effect with the ground making this six furlongs a stiffer test than the Gimcrack was. I’d still prefer him over the longer trip, but he’s overpriced on balance here, and may yet have more to offer despite his relative experience.
Nymphadora 1:30 Newbury – 1pt win @ 100/30
Not So Sleepy 2:05 Newbury – 1pt win @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Mustazeed 2:40 Newbury – 2pts win @ 13/2 (Bet365, 6/1 Hills)
Pride Of America 1:50 Ayr – 1pt win @ 3/1 (general)
Woven 2:25 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365, Hills – 6 places)
Probe 3:35 Ayr – 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (SkyBet – 7 places)
Paws For Thought – 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (SkyBet – 7 places)