Tuesday
Charyn (Queen Anne Stakes)
The Queen Anne ought to be an easy enough race to unpick, and Triple Time’s win last year justified the presence of this column, so it feels like a good way to kick things off. The Lockinge is the key trial, but winner Audience is a quirky sort who shows his best form when allowed to race alone. He was largely ignored at Newbury, and ploughing a lone furrow was the perfect scenario for him.
Of those behind, I feel Inspiral and Big Rock have something to prove, with the former again looking vulnerable on a straight track in the Lockinge, while Big Rock is clearly at his best with ease underfoot. The fact that there will be rain on Saturday is less important than the forecast for warm temperatures from the start of next week, and that should ensure quick ground.
The other issue with Big Rock is trainer Maurizio Guarnieri, who has convinced Leopoldo Fernandez Pujals to move his horses from Christopher Head despite all the evidence that Head is a vastly superior trainer. It would be harsh to say that Guarnieri “couldn’t train pigs to be smelly” to quote one wag, but a lifetime strike-rate on turf of around 6% casts doubt on the wisdom of the switch.
So it would appear that Lockinge runner-up Charyn is the safest bet here, and he was the only one to put it up to Audience at Newbury, beaten by conceding first run to an underrated miler, and there will be no solo for his conqueror at Ascot. Charyn has progressed with each start this term and should arguably be favourite for this given questions over his rivals.
Wednesday
Auguste Rodin (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes)
Once again, I’m banking on warmer temperatures ensuring quick ground at Ascot, and it’s worth remembering that if the weekend rain didn’t arrive, the course would be putting on as much in artificial irrigation to keep the going on the good side of firm. Ground could be crucial here as White Birch seemed to beat Auguste Rodin on merit in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but while Joseph Murphy’s star is best with some cut in the ground, Auguste Rodin’s best form last year came when the ground was very quick. All three of his blowouts came on good or softer, including on heavily watered turf at Meydan, whereas three runs on good to firm or firm resulted in wins in the Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf.
It’s hard to be certain that the ground is the reason for Auguste Rodin’s inconsistency and he obviously won the Group 1 Futurity on heavy as a juvenile, but it’s hard to deny that his firm ground efforts have been those of a superstar and his form on softer of late has not been in the same class. There’s also a possibility that Inspiral could be rerouted here from the Queen Anne (she will be if Frankie Dettori can convince John Gosden), so there’s no rush to get involved, and I’d only be having this bet if the ground was genuinely fast, as I hope it will be.
Thursday
Friendly Soul (Ribblesdale Stakes)
The Musidora could not have been more of a disaster for John and Thady Gosden’s Friendly Soul, who struggled to cope with the left-handed track and Kieran Shoemark was fighting a losing battle to get her around the bend. That certainly dented her reputation, but she started a red-hot favourite at York on the back of an impressive all-the-way win in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket where she and runner-up Kalpana came a dozen lengths clear of some useful fillies.
Owned and bred by racing stalwart George Strawbridge, Friendly Soul is a half-sister to Group 1 winners Call The Wind (Prix du Cadran), We Are (Prix de l’Opéra) and With You (Prix Rothschild) and in winning the Pretty Polly on just her second start – and turf debut – she was marking herself as another top-class prospect for the family.
Her defeat in the Musidora will put many off, but she is clearly in need of a right-handed track and being a half-sister to a Prix du Cadran winner, the step up to a mile and a half should suit her nicely, so I’m keeping the faith and treating York as no more than a bump in the road for a filly with scope to be exceptional in time.
Friday
Porta Fortuna (Coronation Stakes)
The Coronation Stakes looks a cracker on paper and several of those beaten in the 1000 Guineas will be fancied to make amends, not least Porta Fortuna, who was my ante-post bet for Newmarket and a filly who ought to be at least as well suited by Ascot. Winner of the Albany Stakes a year ago, she disappointed a little on softer ground before landing the Cheveley Park Stakes in September, with Donnacha O’Brien opining that she is a much better filly when hearing her hooves rattle. That wasn’t quite the case in the Guineas, but she ran up to her best in finishing a neck second to Elmalka, making her move in pursuit of leader Ramatuelle before the winner and arguably helping the winner by giving her a target.
Porta Fortuna has the combination of speed and stamina needed to win a race of this nature and even quicker ground than she raced on at Newmarket will be a help to her. A tough and honest filly with an undoubted touch of class, she looks the value bet in one of the highlights of the week.
Saturday
Quinault (Wokingham Stakes)
I’ve long been a fan of Quinault, who ran up a sequence after switching from Godolphin to Stuart Williams last season, and his three-year-old form stacks up really well, with old rivals Mill Stream and Washington Heights now looking Group 1 performers at this trip. All three are entered in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, but Quinault would make much more appeal off a mark of 101 in the Wokingham, especially as he goes so well for a claimer.
Quinault hasn’t had the rub of the green so far in 2024, racing on the wrong side of the track at Newmarket and then running well in Group 3 company at Haydock over an extended seven furlongs. His run style is not what is considered ideal at Ascot, but he was placed over course and distance before winning a seven-furlong handicap at the track last term and is clearly fully effective here.