Ascot Saturday

1:25 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) 1m 7f 209yds

Trueshan may have been feeling the after-effects of racing on quick ground at Goodwood when failing to fire in the Doncaster Cup last time, but he has won the last two runnings of this race by an aggregate of nine lengths, and can make it a treble if bouncing back as expected under ideal conditions.

Waterville has been well touted for this after his win in the Irish Cesarewitch, but while his last-to-first run there was remarkable, you need to believe that he got Wayne Lordan out of jail to make a strong case for him.

He was winning that race off a mark of 99, and Trueshan defied a mark of 120 in the Northumberland, and it’s hard to reconcile the two, even taking account of any sectional upgrade for the Curragh contest.

The odd thing is that you’re more likely to be called an idiot on social media for being impressed by Trueshan at Newcastle than for having the same opinion about Waterville in the ‘Ces’; one Twitter account suggested that Trueshan is “the most hated horse in training”, presumably due to his need for ease in the ground and his last-minute withdrawals from the last two Gold Cups.

Those defections are hardly Trueshan’s fault, and the only thing Alan King has done wrong was to bow to pressure and run him on ground which was faster than the description at Goodwood.

For those moaning that he doesn’t run enough (note – also the same people who complain that good horses never run in handicaps these days), they ought to note that he’ll be having his 15th outing since the spring of 2020 here.

2:00 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 6f

Art Power hasn’t always been lucky with the draw at Group 1 level, finishing fourth from stall 20 in this last year when the first three were drawn low, and it’s worth noting that he finished a length in front of Highfield Princess, who came from stall 18 that day.

He’s done much better this time, with a middle draw next to Go Bears Go a good spot, and he has been campaigned lightly this term with this race in mind.

Returning over seven furlongs at York in August, he led until inside the final furlong against Kinross and Pogo, showing all his old dash, but just failing to stay the trip having raced enthusiastically in front.

Like many horses running well after an absence, he took a backward step next time, which for him was in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, although his defeat there was again partly draw related, and he still fared best of the trio drawn lowest that day, with the other pair – including race favourite Naval Crown – tailed off.

Art Power returned to his best when spreadeagling his rivals in the Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh last time, and he arrives here fresher than when fourth in the last two runnings of the race.

I’ve always believed he would be at his peak as a five-year-old, and he now looks the finished article. His one flaw is a tendency to over-race when fresh as he did at York and Haydock, but he settled better in front at the Curragh, and looks to have been brought to a peak at the perfect time.

2:40 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) 1m 3f 211yds

Albaflora has run her best races here, winning the Buckhounds Stakes in 2021 by a wide margin, and going down by a short head in this race last year. She ran poorly after a break at ParisLongchamp last time, but could well surprise here and with a recent run under her belt.

The other one who appeals at the prices in what looks a very competitive contest is Verry Elleegant, who is well past her best according to some, but who was a four-length winner of the Melbourne Cup less than a year ago.

She has required a complete change of routine this year given a focus on running her in the ‘Arc’, and there has been too much talk about the unfortunate way she missed the cut there than what her prospects are in this contest.

She may not be quite the force in Europe that she has been on home soil, but she got an atrocious ride from Mark Zahra in the Prix de Royallieu last time, and the bottom line is that if she can find her Melbourne Cup-winning form, she will win this. It’s a big ‘if’ but not as big as her odds would indicate.

3:20 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) 1m

The Revenant won this in 2020 and ran with great credit when beaten two and a half lengths by Baaeed a year ago. He fared best of those to race up the centre when second in a Group 2 on Arc weekend, and the more rain that falls, the better his chance becomes.

A lack of rain tempers confidence, but the expectation is that it will still ride on the soft side of good without any precipitation, and Francis Graffard’s is more than just a mudlark.

There has been plenty of talk about Inspiral as the best ever bred at Cheveley Park Stud, but I’ve no doubt that even a repeat of The Revenant’s run in last year’s race would be enough to match her achievements.

She ought to improve again, of course, but this meeting has not been a lucky one for John Gosden, with a number of well-fancied runners from Clarehaven misfiring in recent years. My instinct is to field against her, and there should be enough juice in the ground to enable The Revenant to run his race.

4:00 Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) 1m 1f 212yds

Baaeed can’t be opposed for win purposes, but there is a good each-way shape to the Champion Stakes, and one who appeals is the favourite’s stablemate My Prospero, who has only raced once at this trip, and he looked well suited by the extra distance when landing the Prix Eugene Adam on his latest start.

He can progress again, and a place beckons.

4:40 Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) 1m

Perotto gained his most recent win when beating 28 others over the course and distance in the Britannia Handicap last year, and now finds himself just 1lb higher after a losing run.

He’d been running well in the face of stiff tasks prior to a rare poor run in the Cambridgeshire, and a draw in stall one could be a positive with the stalls on the far side.

The best of the pace is also middle to low, with Shelir likely to lead a group up the centre from stall 11, while Johan and the blinkered Tacarib Bay ought to be prominent on the far rail. The Lincoln winner rates a threat given his good strike rate in conditions, although he could only finish mid-field in last year’s renewal.

Recommended

Trueshan 1:25 Ascot – 2pts win @ 15/8 (general)

Art Power 2:00 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Bet365 – 5 places)

Verry Elleegant 2:40 Ascot – 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)

Albaflora 2:40 Ascot – 1pt win @ 25/1 (general)

The Revenant 3:20 Ascot – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, Hills)

Perotto 4:40 Ascot – 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power – 6 places)