THERE’S a lot going on today: the Gold Cup winner back at Haydock, the Champion Hurdle favourite back at Ascot, like the Arkle winner and the Brown Advisory Chase winner.

And that’s just in Britain, that’s before you get to the Craddockstown Chase at Punchestown today or the Morgiana Hurdle and Florida Pearl Chase tomorrow.

You can argue that A Plus Tard should be even shorter than he is for today’s Betfair Chase. The Cheltenham Gold Cup hero, he has 16lb and more in hand of all his rivals today on official ratings. Also, he is one for one at Haydock, he won this race last year doing handsprings.

The ground was better then than it is going to be today, but that is the only real worry, the prospect of very soft ground. And it is more an unknown than a negative.

But the ground was soft when he won the Close Brothers Chase at Cheltenham in 2019 by 16 lengths, and it was soft when he beat Chacun Pour Soi in the Grade 1 two-mile chase at Leopardstown’s 2019 Christmas Festival. He is the most likely winner of today’s race by a long, long way.

But the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle has a better betting shape to it. It looks like Charles Byrnes has had this race in mind for Run For Oscar since he won the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last month.

He won the Cesarewitch impressively, with the result that he now has a flat rating of 101, and he is racing off a hurdles rating today of 147.

Very soft ground is not ideal, but he does handle it, he won his bumper on soft ground and he won his maiden hurdle on soft ground, and he is one for one at Haydock, albeit on the flat. You have to have him in your calculations.

Arduous task

You also have to have Might I in your calculations. We suspected that Harry Fry’s horse faced an arduous task on Tingle Creek weekend at Sandown last December, trying to give 6lb to Constitution Hill, less his rider’s claim, and we know now that it was a nigh impossible task.

He faced difficult tasks too against Jonbon in the Rossington Main Hurdle at Haydock in January and in the Mersey Hurdle against Three Stripe Life at Aintree in April.

He should appreciate this, his first run in a handicap, and a mark of 142 is more than workable. As well as that, he is one for one on soft ground and he is one for one on heavy ground.

He probably put up a career-best performance when he stepped up to two-and a-half miles at Aintree in April and, a half-brother to Stattler, he could improve again for the step up to three miles today. Also, Harry Fry’s horses are running really well. He has had three winners and only one horse finish outside the first four in 16 runs in the last two weeks.

But Might I has been well found by the market now and, at a bigger price, I prefer Good Risk At All. Sam Thomas’ horse was a progressive novice hurdler last season, putting up a career-best performance when he easily landed a good handicap hurdle on soft ground at Ascot in February off a mark of 127.

He was well beaten in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April, and he has 24 lengths to make up on Might I from that run, but it wasn’t his running, perhaps it all happened a little too quickly for him.

Put away for the summer after that, he returned at Carlisle last month and, fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time, he landed a good handicap hurdle off a mark of 137.

He travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out that day, and he probably had more in-hand at the end than the four-and-three-quarter-length margin by which he beat Wholestone.

The handicapper has raised him by 6lb for that win, which was fair. He is only six and he has raced just six times over hurdles, so he has the potential to continue his progression this season.

He goes really well on soft and heavy ground, and the step up to three miles today could bring about further improvement. He was keen enough through the early stages of the Carlisle race and, with that race under his belt, he should settle a little better today. He could run a big race.

Ascot

Edwardstone is favourite for the Jim Barry Wines Hurst Park Handicap Chase at Ascot, but he is 11/4 favourite, and that looks very fair.

Alan King’s horse may not have got all the credit that he was due last season as a novice chaser, possibly because he was a relatively late recruit to chasing, but he won five on the bounce, including the Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton, the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick and the Arkle at Cheltenham, doing well to win as well as he did after losing significant momentum when he was hampered at the fence in front of the stands.

He was beaten by Gentleman De Mee at Aintree, but Gentleman De Mee is potentially very good, despite his defeat last weekend, and Edwardstone was at the end of a long season.

He can go well fresh, he beat Fiddlerontheroof in a novices’ hurdle on his return in 2019, and he finished fifth in the Greatwood Hurdle on his seasonal debut in 2020/21, and there is every chance that he will be able to concede weight to all his rivals today.

Thyme White may be his biggest danger if the ground doesn’t deteriorate, he was very good in winning over today’s course and distance at the end of last month, but he wouldn’t want the ground to ride much softer than it was yesterday.

Recommended

Good Risk At All, 2.25 Haydock, 9/2 (generally), 1 point win

Edwardstone, 3.15 Ascot, 11/4 (generally), 1 point win

Donn’s two recommended bets last weekend both won, Ga Law (SP 5/1) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday and I Like To Move It (SP 17/2) in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham on Sunday.