Aintree Saturday

2:25 Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

Gordon Elliott set out for Cheltenham with hopes of being champion trainer there, and with a huge squad of horses for the spring festivals. It beggars belief that he has saddled just three winners since the start of that week, from 107 runners.

He must wonder what he has to do to get a winner here having seen Pied Piper demoted for interference on Thursday and then Zanahiyr fall at the last when holding every chance in the Aintree Hurdle.

Plenty of the Cullentra runners are running well, but the winners just won’t come. That must be a worry for backers of form pick Three Stripe Life, and I’d not be surprised to see him drift to 7/2 or bigger, which would tempt me.

The official ratings show that they all need to improve to beat Three Stripe Life, but the one horse whose mark looks lenient is Good Risk At All, and Sam Thomas was apoplectic when his charge was denied a run in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.

He looked a snip in that contest, and it may prove a blessing in disguise that he has missed both intended runs in big handicaps this spring (Thomas misread the qualifying rules for the Betfair Hurdle), and he comes here fresh and progressive having won with consummate ease at Ascot seven weeks ago.

His mark was raised 10lb for that nine-length win over Coral Cup sixth Christopher Wood, but the pair were a distance clear, and 20lb would have been closer to the mark.

3:00 Poundland Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 176yds

Edwardstone ought to win this Grade 1 given how high he sets the bar, and he has nothing to fear from Third Time Lucki on Sandown and Warwick form.

There is a value bet in the “without favourite” market, however, and that is backing rank outsider For Pleasure.

Millers Bank was a winner for Alex Hales in Grade 1 company on Thursday, and For Pleasure has a similar profile, being Grade 1-placed last season over hurdles, and having his chase career marred by a couple of falls.

He was still challenging, albeit looking held by Third Time Lucki when falling at Doncaster (Ayr Grade 2 winner Do Your Job held at the time), and had a confidence restorer behind Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki at Warwick.

He was rather bizarrely held up and ran badly having come in for strong support in the Grand Annual last time, but is expected to revert to front-running here.

He’s not quite good enough to win at this level, but is a brave jumper who simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race when allowed to bowl along.

I reckon the others will allow him plenty of rope given his poor run last time, and if he gets loose, he might not be easy to reel in.

He led until between the last two in the Top Novices’ here 12 months ago, and finished just a place behind Third Time Lucki in fifth, and he does not have a great deal to find to beat that rival on balance of form.

3:35 JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 149yds

I’m finding it hard to have a bet in the Liverpool Hurdle. Flooring Porter is favourite after his Stayers’ Hurdle win, but he got both the run of the race, and a superb waiting-in-front ride by Danny Mullins there, and that needs to be factored into any decision making about this race.

I could certainly see a different tempo allowing Thyme Hill to finish much closer, while it can’t be forgotten that Gavin Cromwell’s star ran badly at Punchestown last spring after winning at Cheltenham, and that also tempers confidence.

I find it hard to quantify the negatives against him, and he remains the likeliest winner on paper, but I’d need bigger odds than the general 7/4 to tempt me to part with any cash on the contest; similarly, the 11/4 on Thyme Hill is not enough to see me jump ship, and while a radical shift in those odds could see me change my mind, it’s not easy seeing that happening.

4:15 Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 210yds

The presence of Espoir De Romay means that Shan Blue has an attractive racing weight, and he should take the beating, but he’s not delivered much for punters in the past year or so, despite looking out of the top drawer at times, and he’s well found at around 5/2.

Killer Kane is still pretty raw, as he showed when hanging across the track at Sandown last time, but in doing so, he disguised the extent of his superiority, and the seven-year-old is much less exposed than his rivals here, and he has improved for the fitting of a tongue-tie to land his last two.

Colin Tizzard’s charge showed he stays three miles well when scoring impressively at Kempton in February (second and fourth won next time), and then showed his adaptability to win the listed novices’ handicap at Sandown last time, which used to grace the Cheltenham card on Champion Hurdle day.

A cumulative 11lb rise for those two wins does not look enough to stop him landing a hat-trick, for all he’ll need to keep his quirks in check.

5:15 Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 4m 2f 74y

See next page for selection and one-two-three-four prediction.

Good Risk At All 2:25 Aintree – 2pts win @ 8/1 (Bet365, 15/2 888Sport)

For Pleasure 3:00 Aintree – 1pt win without Edwardstone @ 22/1 (Bet365, 16/1 general))

Killer Kane 4:15 Aintree – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365 5 places, or 11/1 Skybet 6 places)

Discorama 5:15 Aintree – 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (general – 6 places)