Aintree Saturday
1:01 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)
3m 149yds
Assuming the ground is good to soft or better, then Johnson’s Blue looks handicapped to continue his winning run.
Three Hexham wins are nothing to crow about, but his latest romp at Cartmel was impressive, with plenty of in-form rivals in his wake.
The third there, Well Educated has run up a sequence since, and is now rated 119, so Johnson’s Blue could be hard to catch off his revised mark of 120 (was conceding 10lb at Cartmel) given his slick jumping.
If it did turn soft, then the obvious one for me would be Milan Bridge, who looks a thorough stayer and is effective on quick and heavy ground. I’d be concerned that he lacks tactical pace, but he was pretty raw last year, and is completely unexposed in handicaps.
1:36 Boylesports Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase 2m 3f 200yds
Hometown Hero faced a stiff task in the EBF Final on his most recent start in the spring, but he’s an Irish point winner, and the sort to leave his hurdles form behind now switched to the larger obstacles. His trainer does well with chase debutants, and he won’t lack for stamina having had a wind operation since his Sandown run.
2:11 Boylesports Best Odds Guaranteed Grand Sefton Handicap Chase 2m 5f 19yds
I’m intrigued by the Greenall/Guerriero runner Gesskille here – he’s won both UK starts in hunter chases, and has shown better form returned to his native France since, landing a listed chase on his latest start at Auteuil over this trip.
He’ll have jumped all sorts of obstacles there, and I doubt the Grand National fences will faze him. He’s hard to rate accurately, but gets in off bottom weight, and looks shrewdly placed.
2:45 Boylesports Best Odds Guaranteed Day Before Hurdle 2m 4f
Dashel Drasher is more than an Ascot specialist, as he showed when making all to beat the exciting Beauport over hurdles at Newbury last season.
He will again get an easy lead in all likelihood, and is a fluent jumper over the smaller obstacles, so promises to be hard to catch, particularly if the other jockeys don’t have their wits about them.
Brewin’upastorm and Langer Dan tend to be held up in their races, and although the former won this race quite easily last year, he was beating a couple of plodders in a race run to suit, and he won’t get the same set-up this time.
Wincanton Saturday
12:40 Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f 82yds
Top-weight Lady Adare falls into the could-be-anything category, and is respected, but she’s yet to race on quick ground, and all in all, I much prefer to side with the race-fit Sabrina.
Freddie Gingell – Joe Tizzard’s nephew – claims a valuable 10lb and Sabrina looked at least as good as ever when runner-up behind the well-treated Wavering Down at Newton Abbot last month.
A course-and-distance winner who has shown improved form since racing with a tongue-tie, and who is equally effective on good or heavy ground, she looks sure to be involved in the finish.
1:15 Boodles ‘Rising Stars’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 35yds
McFabulous is a horse I’ve always figured would be a better chaser than a hurdler, and he probably would have gone over fences last year but for a setback which meant that he wasn’t able to race until January. As such, Paul Nicholls hasn’t rushed him, but he’s sure to have been schooled well in advance of this belated first try.
He is a bold jumper of hurdles and a fluent mover, so should be ideally suited by Wincanton on good ground, and I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t win well at the first attempt. He just about stays three miles when stamina isn’t at a premium, and does handle soft ground, but in my view is a much better horse at intermediate trips and on a sound surface. Despite this late start, he could take high order among the domestic novice chasers.
1:50 61st Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 3m 1f 30yds
There aren’t many who appeal here, and recent Cheltenham winner Lord Accord has strong claims of following up after a small rise in the weights.
Despite being only seven, he’s already won a handicap chase off his current mark, and he looked better than ever when beating The Wolf last time, where his jumping was an asset.
As a sound jumper who usually races prominently, he’s got the right credentials for this tricky course and should give punters a big run for their money.
Frodon can’t be ignored despite top-weight, but while he was capable of form good enough to win this even last season, he did show signs that age was beginning to catch him up by the spring, and that tempers confidence in his chances, for all victory would be a very popular result among the Wincanton cognoscenti.
3:00 Unibet Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) 1m 7f 50yds
The Elite Hurdle is not really a betting medium for me, but ought to be an exciting spectacle, with not much between the three who head the market. I suspect that Milkwood might travel into the home straight at least as well as Sceau Royalbut the latter’s slick jumping could be the difference between the pair late on.
Alan King’s 10-year-old is one of the most consistent jumpers of recent years, and runs to his rating almost all the time. He’s entitled to show signs of decline at his age, but looked very much his old self when winning at Kempton last month, and he’s a difficult horse to beat on a sound surface, especially when relatively fresh.
Doncaster Saturday
12:50 Download The Betgoodwin App Wentworth Stakes (Listed) 6f 2yds
Heavy ground will make this a test at the trip, and that puts me off class act Art Power, who has to concede a Group 3 penalty and is prone to doing too much in front on a stiff track like this. Tarhib produced a career best on testing ground at Nottingham recently despite not getting the run of the race, and while she has something to find on form, is very likely to run her race, and that can’t be said for many who have been on the go all season.
3:13 Betgoodwin November Handicap 1m 3f 197yds
High draws ought to dominate on the heavy ground here, and many of the big fancies have got lucky in that regard.
Stall 10 is only just wide enough to consider Metier, but Harry Fry’s high-class hurdler is best on this ground, and was a progressive handicapper in Ireland when last racing on the flat.
He could still be ahead of the handicapper carrying that old rating, and in Saffie Osborne, has a jockey riding with great confidence at present.
Hopefully she can ensure he doesn’t get stuck to near the inside in a race where the middle of the track tends to provide the best of the ground in the straight at this meeting, if not as a general rule.
Sabrina 12:40 Wincanton – 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365, BetVictor, Boyles)
Lord Accord 1:50 Wincanton – 2pts win/1pt place @ 5/1 (Skybet, 5 places)
Metier 3:13 Doncaster – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (general – 6 places)
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