THE market and the jockey bookings tell you that, if you are going to be with a Paul Nicholls horse in today’s Betfair Hurdle, you want to be with Rubaud, not Hacker Des Places.

And you can easily make the case for Rubaud. He has made really nice progress this season. He raced just once for Paul Nicholls last season, his first since his arrival from France, and he won his first two races this season, both at Taunton, both at odds-on.

Then last time, he put up a career-best performance in finishing second to Rare Edition in a novices’ hurdle at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day.

The time was good that day, and the pair of them finished well clear of their rivals, and you probably don’t have to worry too much about Rare Edition’s defeat on Thursday in the Sidney Banks Hurdle at Huntingdon. That obviously wasn’t his true running.

A handicap rating of 130 looks more than fair for Rubaud, he is only five and has raced just four times over hurdles, so he has the potential to go beyond that now.

He should appreciate the return to better ground today, and the excellent Harry Cobden takes the ride. There are lots of positives.

Stable companion

But there are lots of positives about his stable companion Hacker Des Places too, and the disparity in their respective odds may be greater than it should be.

Third in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last March, the Great Pretender gelding rounded off last season by winning the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Aintree in April.

He shaped encouragingly on his debut this season in the handicap hurdle that Highway One O Two won at Ascot in October, and he stepped forward from that nicely to win a good handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s trials meeting two weeks ago.

He was impressive that day too. He travelled well through his race, a little too well if anything through the early stages of the race, and he moved into a share of the lead on the run to the second last flight, moving to the front on the run around the home turn.

That is a fair way out on the New Course at Cheltenham, and he did well to keep on as well as he did over the last and up the run-in to repel the late challenge of Might I, who challenged towards the favoured stands side.

A 5lb penalty for that win leaves him racing today off an effective mark of 142, which leaves him 1lb poorly-in. The handicapper gave him a mark of 141 after re-assessing him. But that is not unfair. Far more important is the fact that he is on a really nice upward trajectory now, and he has the potential to go beyond both marks.

Angus Cheleda has ridden him in seven of his last eight races, including to four victories. He obviously gets on well with the horse so, while Harry Cobden is an asset to any horse, it may not have been the jockey’s choice. It makes sense to leave Angus Cheleda on Hacker Des Places, given that he gets on so well with him.

It won’t be a negative is Hacker Des Places hits the front at Newbury between the last two flights, that is a common winning running style in the Betfair Hurdle.

We know that he can operate on good ground and on a flat track, he proved that at Aintree last April, and he could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Game Spirit Chase

It could be a good day at Newbury for Paul Nicholls, because Greaneteen is the stand-out horse in the Game Spirit Chase, but Malystic might get closer to him that the betting suggests.

Peter Niven’s horse is nine now, but he is in the form of his life these days. Winner of the Castleford Chase at Wetherby over Christmas, he was impressive in winning a good handicap chase at Doncaster two weeks ago.

He only got home by a half a length in the end from the fast-finishing Saint Segal, but he travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out, and he showed a smart turn of foot to set up a race-winning advantage, before idling on the run-in.

He had more in hand of his talented and progressive rival than the bare winning margin.

He has 15lb to find on official ratings with Greaneteen, but he might get a little closer than the weights and measures suggest he will. He goes well on goodish ground, and two miles on a flat galloping left-handed track (he has run well in the past at Doncaster, Newcastle, Ayr and Wetherby) suits him well.

Malystic, 3.00 Newbury, 9/1 (generally), 1 point each-way

Hacker Des Places, 3.35 Newbury, 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) or 10/1 (generally), 1 point each-way,

* One of Donn’s two recommended bets last week was Green Book (recommended at 8/1) who won the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown.