The Cheltenham Festival provides the strongest betting markets of the year and the outcome of those 28 races can have a massive bearing on a bookmaker’s end of year results.

Cheltenham provides the greatest joust of the year between punters and bookmakers and Denis Kirwan asked a number of the big layers about their hopes and fears for this year’s renewal…

DENIS KIRWAN: Of all the short-priced favourites, which ones are you afraid of and which ones are you happy to take on, and why?

FRANK HICKEY, PADDY POWER –– We would definitely be afraid of the shorty multiple that we could be staring down the barrel of on the Tuesday with Ballyburn in the Supreme, Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle and Lossiemouth in the Mares’ Hurdle.

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS – We’re not afraid of any of the short-priced horses on their own. The danger for us is that a number of them win and punters land their accumulators. That can become extremely costly for us.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES – Sir Gino, Galopin Des Champs and Dinoblue will be the core of so many multis on Gold Cup day, so we won’t be able to take anything for granted before then.

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL – Sir Gino and Lossiemouth both put in performances on Cheltenham Trials Day that suggest they will be very hard to beat in their respective divisions, so we’re very wary of them. El Fabiolo can make the odd jumping error that isn’t ideal if you are being asked to take very skinny odds in the Champion Chase.

PAT COONEY, BET 365 – Lossiemouth wouldn’t look out of place in the Champion Hurdle, so the Mares’ Hurdle is hers for the taking. I doubt if any of her potential rivals could match her finishing speed sectionals from her run at Cheltenham last time out. The Stayers Hurdle has been a bit of a ‘bookies benefit’ in recent seasons, so with no stand out contender this year, we’ll look to take on the market leaders on the day.

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR –– Tuesday is starting to have a slightly ominous look to it with short priced favourites in the Supreme, Champion Hurdle and Mares’ Hurdle. The days of a firm taking a significant individual stand against a Festival favourite are probably a thing of the past when it comes to Cheltenham.

DENIS KIRWAN: Apart from the obvious ones, are there any trainers whose horses you will be paying particular attention to this year, and why?

FRANK HICKEY, PADDY POWER –– The last few weeks have been ominous with Willie Mullins firing in winners left, right and centre and it looks likely that he will dominate the Festival yet again. That said, I think Gavin Cromwell’s runners should be respected, as his strike-rate with his runners in the UK this season has been exceptional.

I would also give a mention to Harry Derham, who’s unlikely to have too many runners at the Festival but I will be respecting anything he runs, as he has proved himself to be extremely capable during his short time in the training ranks.

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS – Martin Brassil does well with whatever he sends over and I always pay attention to his horses. Fastorslow, who is second favourite for the Gold Cup, will lead his team this year but I’m sure he will have a couple of other interesting runners when final declarations are in.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES – Emmet Mullins is an artist. Along with being an excellent trainer, it is his sense of timing and placement that sets him apart. We have to give him and Paul Byrne full respect in all the handicaps. 

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL – William Hill ambassador Gavin Cromwell has enjoyed a stellar season in the UK when he has sent runners over and his runners are always worth keeping close tabs on. He is one of the best trainers around and we wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if he had another winner or two at the Festival. The other to keep an eye on is Emmet Mullins, who is about the best target trainer going. If one of his is well-backed, there’s usually good reason!

PAT COONEY, BET365 – Any Emmet Mullins runners would be hugely respected irrespective of its recent form. Also, most Joseph O’Brien runners are usually strong in the market on the day. We’ll be keeping both these trainers on side in the build up to their races.

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR – Irish trainers continue to dominate the Festival and aside from the likes of Willie and Gordon, anything Gavin Cromwell runs will warrant plenty of respect from me, having raided Britain very effectively so far this season.

Gavin is a man who can target the big days with great precision. We sponsor Jamie Snowden in the UK and he has had a brilliant season to date. I would urge anyone to have a good look at his Festival runners. 

DENIS KIRWAN: Have you seen any support for horses in the handicaps yet or have you heard anything interesting about them?

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS – Waterford Whispers for Henry de Bromhead and J.P. McManus would be a very interesting runner in the Martin Pipe if he goes there after a couple of wins at Galway and Fairyhouse.

He may not have enjoyed the heavy ground last time out when finishing second at Leopardstown and hopefully he’ll improve for a sounder surface if he gets it at Cheltenham.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES – Twitter/X seemed to have these ridiculous puzzles solved by December! Chianti Classico in the Ultima, Chantry House in the Pertemps, Langer Dan in the Coral Cup, My Mate Mozzie in the Grand Annual – how far?

Hopefully it isn’t really that simple.  

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL– Stumptown has been well backed for the Ultima to continue the good run of Gavin Cromwell in the UK after a good run in the Kim Muir last year. Langer Dan has predictably been very well-backed for the Coral Cup and may well spring back to life at the Festival. Icare Allen got qualified for the Pertemps Final nice and early and has seemingly been laid out for it ever since.

PAT COONEY, BET 365 – It’s been generally quiet on the handicaps so far. Most punters now wait for the final decs to be known and with the extra e/w places more advantageous. One that has been popular is Langer Dan to defend his Coral Cup crown. His form this season has been poor, but he’s now on a similar handicap mark to last year’s win.

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR – If we go back to one of our sponsored races at Punchestown in January and I am fairly convinced, we may have seen a few for the Boodles, aka the Fred Winter, in it. Highwind was the winner for Willie Mullins but the third – Lark In The Mornin – was the one that caught my eye for March.

DENIS KIRWAN: Ballyburn, Constitution Hill, Lossiemouth and El Fabiolo. They can’t be beaten, right?

FRANK HICKEY, PADDY POWER –– At the moment, it is tough to see what beats each of them. Lossiemouth still has to prove her stamina for the Mares’ Hurdle trip but she looks head and shoulders clear on ability.

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS – I think we only need to look at Jonbon in the Clarence House to see that any horse can be beaten. Regardless of how far clear on form they are, they’re living breathing animals who are not invincible or immune to mistakes.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES –– Never say never. Constitution Hill scoped badly and keeps missing races, Lossiemouth has never run at two and a half miles and El Fabiolo has to jump 13 fences at speed. Their chances are obvious in their short prices but there are a few tiny factors that could play against them.  

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL – It is hard to see them being beaten at present. Lossiemouth running in the Champion Hurdle could help in more ways than one but alas that seems highly unlikely and the Mares’ Hurdle looks at her mercy.

Bookmakers will be hoping a short-priced horse does get beat to sink plenty of multiples, but at this stage all four look very solid.

PAT COONEY, BET 365 – I’m reminded of the old phrase ‘never be afraid of one’ so feel happy about taking on that four fold. I will admit though, they do look likely winners of their respective races, but they will be priced accordingly.

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR –– All four look seriously likely to take home the spoils in their respective races, that said the Cheltenham Festival has a way of providing us with serious drama.

Who can forget that Douvan was beaten at 2/9 in a Champion Chase or the moment Annie Power came to grief at the last in the Mares’. Nothing is home and hosed until they cross the line. The reason we still take bets on short prices favourites is they can’t always win.

DENIS KIRWAN: How important is the opening day of the Festival to bookmakers?

FRANK HICKEY, PADDY POWER –– It is always important for us to get off to a decent start. It is not the be all and end all if we lose on day one, but we definitely don’t want a scenario where we have Ballyburn going off short for the Supreme and winning, along with Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth which would put us massively on the back foot on day one.

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS – Day one has been pivotal for bookmakers over the last number of years. The way the race card is shaped, it seems to always fall that a number of extremely important horses take to the stage on day one.

If the bookmakers can get even one or two of these horses beaten, it puts them in a seriously strong position for the rest of the week. Races like the Arkle, Champion Hurdle and Mares’ Hurdle often have very strong favourites, and if they all win, it can start to look like a long week for the layers.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES – Thankfully we have had a few years since the Annie Power era where Mullins and Walsh would have five rock solid favourites lined up on day one, so the blood pressure baseline doesn’t start quite so high.

It’s still vital to get a good start and Tuesday tells you so much about the ground and which form lines are looking strong for the rest of the week.  

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL – It would be nice to get a short-priced horse beat early, but we have had very bad Tuesdays in the past and recovered to be ahead at the end of the week.

It’s certainly the lesser of two evils for bookmakers to have a bad Tuesday rather than a bad Friday when turnover is at its highest.

PAT COONEY, BET 365 – It’s vital, I reflect on the opening day of 2004, when Douvan, Un De Sceaux and Faugheen all were very well-backed winning favourites, with absolute fortunes running on to Annie Power, who fell at the final flight when set for victory. There are only two handicaps on the opening day , so it’s highly likely we may be losing after day one.

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR – It’s huge for us; Tuesday on paper has often looked a hard start to the week for bookies in terms of results but at least you do have three more days to try and get it back! It’s also a massive shop window to showcase horse racing to the wider sports fan who perhaps aside from the Grand National won’t engage with horse racing for the rest of the year. 

DENIS KIRWAN: Is there more or less ante-post activity this year than in the recent past? Has ante-post betting declined significantly from its peak due to multiple entries?

FRANK HICKEY, PADDY POWER –– Cheltenham grabs the attention of the horse racing punter and our turnover on the ante-post markets has been vibrant and compares well with previous years.

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS –   There’s no getting away from the fact that ante-post betting has declined over the last decade. This is due to a number of reasons. Horses having several entries at the Festival has been an issue and tied into that, bookmakers’ Non Runner No Bet offers appearing very early in the year generally knocks the prices down for those horses that are entered across a few races.

If we combine that with the fact that punters now know that they will be getting BOG, extra places and money back offers on the day of the race, they are much more inclined to keep their powder dry until then and avail of those offers while also getting the benefit of knowing the going conditions, jockey bookings etc. for their selections.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES – I think social media has had a very positive effect on ante-post turnover, particularly for Cheltenham. Everyone wants to show their slips and prove that they saw it first, they got the best price, they called it. The requests for 2025 and even 2026 are coming in already! 

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL – Turnover on ante-post betting is a lot more robust than some of the lazy commentary on the subject would have you believe, but one Cheltenham specific problem is so many of the graded races being at the mercy of such a small number of yards.

Races can look very uncompetitive from a long way out which is not good for turnover.

We were the first firm to go non-runner – money back on all races from January 1st, so that does help punters if a horse does have multiple entries and running plans are unclear.

PAT COONEY, BET 365 – It’s definitely slowed down in recent years, probably dating back to when it became a four-day meeting. Willie Mullins’s dominance is the main recent factor particularly with his multiple entries.

I think last year his Gaelic Warrior was priced at single figures in five different races. Business really picks up though when we go non-runner-no bet.

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR – I would suggest rather than in decline it is just used differently by customers now. The average stake is smaller but that is because people are keener to have more running for them by the time March comes.

Multiples are very popular in ante-post betting now and we also have seen the rise of people wanting to be on earlier. This is thanks to a fear of missing out which is generated by social media chatter fuelling Cheltenham betting interests starting earlier each season. 

DENIS KIRWAN: Other than the straight win/each-way markets, what would be the most popular betting markets relating to the Cheltenham Festival?

FRANK HICKEY, PADDY POWER –– Betting without, distance and place markets would be very popular. Distance markets can add some interesting alternatives to races with very short favourites, tipsters have taken to putting up place accumulators for the Festival which punters have latched on to. Betting without markets will be popular in races where the favourite is short but the field in behind is quite even.

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS –  Our ‘Countdown to Cheltenham’ offer always does good business. We offer boosted prices on selected horses to win/place each day in the run-up to the Festival. Other than that, top jockey betting is always sought after even though there is generally a short-priced fav.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES – Our annual market on which horse records the biggest winning distance is always very popular – it’s a chance to back some of the shortest-priced favourites of the week at double-figure prices. 

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL – Because there are a number of odds-on chances across the four days, the betting without the favourite markets can prove very popular.

Some punters like a bet that will give them an interest in every race so markets like total winning distances across the four days can also be very popular.

PAT COONEY, BET 365 – The top jockey market is always popular. It’s always hard to look beyond Paul Townend , but we often see money for Patrick Mullins, who should any misfortune come to Paul would benefit the most.

Similarly, James Bowen may be Nico de Bonville’s deputy. It may be an unethical way to think, but value is value!

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR –– Well, one thing small field sizes and short-priced favourites at the Festival have done is ensure we are more creative for punters! Distance betting has grown in popularity with the likes of Constitution Hill and other shorties being played in our ‘lengthen the odds’ market.

This will be our second Festival with in-running betting which is increasing in popularity, and pre-event specials always spark interest from customers.

The bet builder combining multiple trainers/jockeys to have over x wins in the week is an area of growth year on year.  

DENIS KIRWAN: Which horse and which race are you most looking forward to seeing at Cheltenham?

FRANK HICKEY, PADDY POWER – I’m looking forward to the Brown Advisory Novice Chase, as I think there are a number of really promising staying novice chasers likely to run there and it can be such a good pointer to the following season’s Gold Cup.

The one in the potential line up that catches my eye is Monty’s Star for Henry de Bromhead. I loved the way he jumped when he easily accounted for Three Card Brag at Punchestown and I have little doubt that he’s a Grade 1 chaser in waiting.

PETER DONOHOE, BOYLESPORTS – We love superstars in our game and what Constitution Hill is doing for the profile of racing is very important. Racing needs these superstars to peak people’s interest and he is awesome.

Outside of that, all eyes will be on Galopin Des Champs. He is looking to bag another Gold Cup and would be unbeaten in three starts at Cheltenham bar the luckless fall in the Turners Novice Chase when he was cantering clear.

Personally, I would love Banbridge to score in the Ryanair.

JOHN PRIDDEY, LADBROKES – The Pertemps Final is always my pet project so I have a special interest there having followed every zig and zag right from the first qualifier.

Also I’d love to see Ginny’s Destiny win the Turners. He’s such a model pro of a racehorse and so suited to that jumping test – I can picture him gaining lengths at every fence. 

CHARLIE ROBERTSON, WILLIAM HILL – We were absolutely blown away by Lossiemouth on Trials Day and she looks the most legitimate challenger to Constitution Hill in the hurdling division.

She might be the new Quevega and hopefully she shows her class and wins the Mares’ Hurdle by a street. Wouldn’t it be great to see her in the Champion Hurdle? Come on Willie, give us what we want!

PAT COONEY, BET 365 – Sir Gino in the Triumph is the horse. He looks an exceptional novice and looks set to be stable mate Constitution Hill’s biggest rival next season. The race has to be the Gold Cup, watched from ground level in the main grandstand. The atmosphere there for that race is just electric.

SAM BOSWELL, BETVICTOR – We don’t see enough of him so Constitution Hill will be my first pick in this category! His stablemate, Sir Gino, looked special on Trials Day, so he’s another for the shortlist. In terms of which race, it must be the Supreme, the roar that goes up as the tapes go back still gets my blood pumping. 

This article is taken from The Irish Field Cheltenham Magazine 2024, in partnership with Goffs.

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