IT’S the perennial Derby conundrum. With limited evidence available, the result of the Cazoo Derby is usually greatly influenced by the degree to which the protagonists progress from their respective previous runs to the Derby, and therein lies the conundrum.

Evidence

Nine of the 17 runners in today’s field have won last time out, most of them in recognised Derby pointers, and six have finished second. That’s the evidence.

The unknown is the magnitude of improvement that they will show from last time to this time. Whatever colt wins the Derby today, the likelihood is that he will have put up the best performance of his life.

You can see why Desert Crown is favourite. Not only is Sir Michael Stoute’s colt unbeaten, but he has raced just twice, he won the Dante on his second run, his seasonal debut, after winning his maiden last October by five and a half lengths, and he won the Dante impressively, beating last year’s Royal Lodge Stakes winner into second place.

Also, while he was strong in the Derby market in the days leading up to the Dante, he was weak in the Dante market in the minutes leading up to the race. He could come on significantly for his Dante win. And he is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who has trained five Derby winners. There is not a lot not to like.

Short

Just the price, that’s all. He is short in a race that is full of unknowns and conjecture – only three of the runners have been over the Derby trip before for starters – as it usually is. He may well win today, he may well bring up his trainer’s sixth Derby victory, but there will be better 15/8 shots, there are many 2/1 shots about whom there is more certainty.

Stone Age is a significant player too, a significant improver. Aidan O’Brien’s colt didn’t win last season as a juvenile, but he was highly tried, he ran some big races in defeat, including when he was beaten a head by Atomic Jones in the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes on Irish Champions’ Weekend.

This season, different story. He won his maiden at Navan in March by nine lengths, and he bolted up in the Leopardstown Derby Trial, the old Derrinstown, when he made all under Ryan Moore and finished five and a half lengths clear of his rivals.

Massive

He has been the de facto Aidan O’Brien number one since then, which is obviously massive, given that nobody, in nearly a quarter of a millennium of the Derby, has trained more Derby winners than Aidan O’Brien.

And when the champion trainer said shortly after the Leopardstown race that Ryan Moore would find it difficult not to ride Stone Age in the Derby, and that was after he had won three other Derby trials on three other Ballydoyle colts, he was right. Ryan isn’t not riding Stone Age.

That said, while jockeys’ choices are binary – you’re either riding the horse or you’re not – betting markets are graduated, and the disparity between the Ballydoyle number one and the other Ballydoyle horses in the Derby market is often greater than it should be.

All three Aidan O’Brien representatives in today’s race are deserving of their places in the Derby line-up. They are all progressive, they have all been trained for a long time (by the most successful Derby trainer of all time) with at least one eye on today. All three are capable of stepping forward sufficiently today that will see them put a performance that will win the Derby.

Interestingly, Aidan O’Brien’s last three Derby winners had better-fancied stable companions behind them at Epsom.

Player

Changingoftheguard is a player, he was impressive in winning the Chester Vase last time, the race that Ruler Of The World won in 2013 before he went on and won the Derby, but, at a bigger price, his stable companion Star Of India could be the value of the race.

The Galileo colt raced just once last season as a juvenile, in October at Leopardstown, when he stayed on nicely to win a seven-furlong maiden by over two lengths. He made his debut this season in the Craven Stakes over a mile, when he could finish only fifth behind the Irish Guineas winner Native Trail, but he stepped forward from that significantly last time when he stepped up in trip to 10 and a half furlongs and won the Dee Stakes at Chester.

There was a lot to like about the performance that he put up that day. He had to be ridden along early to secure his position, but he travelled well through his race for Ryan Moore, he handles the tight turns well and, wheeled to the outside early in the home straight, he stayed on powerfully to win nicely.

Breeding

He is not certain to stay a mile and a half on breeding, he is a half-brother to Sudirman, who won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and the Group 2 Railway Stakes over six furlongs, but he is a full-brother to Roman Empire, who won his maiden as a juvenile over a mile on heavy ground, and who finished second in the Hampton Court Stakes over 10 furlongs at Royal Ascot as a three-year-old.

As well as that, his sire is Galileo, and when your sire is Galileo, you can ostensibly get any distance.

He wasn’t stopping at the end of the Dee Stakes, he went to the line strongly, and he only has another furlong and a half to go in the Derby. There is every chance that he will get the trip all right. And he has raced just three times, he has bundles of scope to continue his progression. He could out-run his odds by a fair way.

Piz Badile is another really likeable colt, and Donnacha O’Brien’s horse was game in beating subsequent Tetrarch Stakes winner Buckaroo in the Ballysax Stakes, while Westover left the impression that he won Sandown’s Classic Trial with more in hand than the narrow winning margin.

A full-brother to Wolferton Stakes winner Monarchs Glen, Ralph Beckett’s horse is another who could step forward significantly today. That said, the 14/1 or 16/1 that is on offer about Star Of India could be the value of the race.

Fitzherbert over-priced

Earlier in the day, Mrs Fitzherbert looks over-priced for the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes. Progressive at the end of last season, when she won two of her three races, Hughie Morrison’s filly showed a smart turn of foot to win a listed race over a mile at Goodwood on her debut this season.

She beat Bashikova by a half a length that day, she should progress from that, and she probably should be much closer to William Haggas’ filly in the market than she is.

Recommended

Mrs Fitzherbert, Epsom, 1pt win, 9/2 (generally [guaranteed])

Star Of India, Epsom, 1pt win, 14/1 (generally [guaranteed])