BANKER or bust? That is the question posed of the Cheltenham Festival’s warmest favourites every year in the run-up to the greatest show on turf – especially in an era when odds-on favourites are more common than ever at the meeting.

It’s difficult to find many punters or pundits who will be eager to oppose Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle, and it might be a similar story with Marine Nationale in the Arkle - the shortest-priced ante-post favourite for the meeting who is trained in Ireland.

Last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner oozed quality on his chasing debut at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival and will be one of the star attractions at next weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival in the Goffs Irish Arkle.

One of the more peculiar nuggets to emerge from Marine Nationale’s seasonal return was the fact he reappeared in a tongue-tie for the first time in his career at Leopardstown, something that caught many observers by surprise given he has never been beaten – and the fact he visually didn’t climb the Cheltenham hill like a horse with an obvious breathing issue on his previous start.

Connell comments

Asked about the application of the tongue-tie over Christmas, Connell explained: “He had a little tidy-up wind operation. We just thought it might improve him a little bit. He had it before he went out [for his summer break].”

In the ‘banker or bust’ debates around Marine Nationale pre-Cheltenham, there’s every chance that his wind operation and tongue-tie will be a point flagged by those trying to oppose this massive talent. And it’s probably a valid discussion to a certain extent.

The unbeaten talent is as short as 1/2 for the Arkle after one chasing win. Do you really want to take a skimpy price about a horse whose connections have felt the need to fit a tongue-tie on after a wind-op, ahead of a ferocious two-mile test around Cheltenham? Such a venture will not be for everyone.

A key matter to weigh up in the argument is how many top horses undergo wind surgery before going on to run at Cheltenham, and how they perform.

Unfortunately for us trying to evaluate this dynamic, a breathing operation for a horse running in Ireland is something that does not need to be disclosed to the authorities or the public. We are none the wiser about whether the vast majority of Irish horses have surgeries unless their trainer tells the public, or if the horse’s first start after the procedure comes in Britain, where such procedures must be declared to the British Horseracing Authority since 2018.

Surgery stats

To my count, there have been 397 runners in Cheltenham Festival races since 2018 who at some stage had a declared breathing operation to the BHA. That means roughly one in seven of the entire population of runners at the meeting across the last six years are confirmed as having had wind surgeries at some stage beforehand, so Marine Nationale is not a major outlier by any means - especially given we do not have data for the vast majority of Irish-trained runners at Cheltenham.

In total, there were 20 winners from the 397 runners; resulting in an overall strike rate of 5% within the sample.

Backing each of these horses blindly would have led to a level-stakes loss of -€97.14. On a more positive note, though, these runners were deemed to have run very close to market expectations.

If Marine Nationale follows that as the strong favourite in March, his backers may not have much to worry about.

Top two-milers

Another point to note is that three of the 10 non-handicap winners at the meeting with a declared wind operation since 2018 scored over the same course and distance as the Arkle. Only two non-handicap winners came over further than an extended two and a half miles.

The trio of course and distance victories actually came in the Queen Mother Champion Chase with Altior in 2018 and 2019, and Politologue in 2020. These are not the only examples of top two-mile chasers being effective at the highest level after having their wind tweaked.

In fact, when looking back through the last 10 British-trained winners of the Champion Chase, all bar one of them - Sire De Grugy - is on record as having wind surgery at some stage in their career. Perhaps Sire De Grugy did have one without the public knowing, but I could not find a record of a procedure for the Gary Moore stalwart.

Master Minded (2008 and 2009) and Finian’s Rainbow (2012) admittedly had their breathing tinkered with later in their careers, but dual Champion Chase hero Sprinter Sacre apparently had his first operation after finishing third in the 2011 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, when his jockey reportedly said he was “a bit noisy” on the hill.

Altior’s first of two declared wind operations came during the off-season before his breakthrough Queen Mother victory, and the same applies to Politologue. As for Dodging Bullets (2015), a season before his biggest success, Paul Nicholls was quoted as saying: “We re-cauterised his palate - he had a wind op a year ago - and he is a completely different horse.”

After beating Sprinter Sacre in the 2015 Clarence House - his final start before lifting the Champion Chase - Nicholls said: “He’s had a few breathing problems and we’ve put a tongue-tie on him which seems to have helped.”

Arkle history

Looking at the Arkle specifically, there have been several cases of reported breathing issues or surgeries involving winners and placed runners.

After Captain Chris landed the prize in 2011, winning trainer Philip Hobbs said: “A breathing operation - he had a cauterised palate - has helped him a lot… I’m hoping there’s a lot more to come, because ground is very important to him and he only had the wind op at Christmas.”

The first of Shishkin’s two declared wind-ops came in the off-season following his 2021 Arkle win, Duc Des Genievres had one the year after his 2019 success in the race and the same applies to 2008 scorer Tidal Bay, whose owner Graham Wylie said: “After last season he saw the vet, who said he definitely needed a wind operation.”

Brain Power is another who had a breathing procedure directly before finishing second to Footpad in the 2018 Arkle.

As for tongue-ties, the second-place finishers in both the 2021 and 2022 Arkles - Gabynako and Eldorado Allen - both wore that piece of equipment for the first time in their careers at the Festival. The third in 2022, Blue Lord, and second and third in 2019, Us And Them and Articulum, sported tongue-ties too.

Go as far back as dual Champion Chase winner Fortria, the best two-mile chaser of the early 1960s, and you’ll find examples of top two-mile chasers with imperfect breathing.

According to racing historian John Randall: “Fortria had a wind problem then caused him to be hobdayed. The operation worked because he went from strength to strength despite still making a noise when he raced.”

Of course it isn’t ideal to hear of a wind operation and tongue-tie applied to Marine Nationale. You will find it hard to come across anyone who sees that as a positive. However, history suggests it is not an absolute black mark against his chances of remaining unbeaten at Cheltenham this spring.

Banker of bust? For me, he remains in the former category.