THE early markets for this year’s Dublin Racing Festival suggest we could be set for a flurry of favourites to oblige, yet last year’s meeting offered an insight that it is rarely as simple as that for punters to pull one over on the bookmakers.

Predator’s Gold was sent off the even-money favourite for the opening Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle 12 months ago but had no answer to stablemate Dancing City. In fact, there have been more double-figure-priced winners (Tower Bridge 25/1, Minella Cocooner 11/1 and Dancing City 16/1) of that Grade 1 than successful favourites (Good Land 3/1 and Gaillard Du Mesnil 13/8) since the first Dublin Racing Festival in 2018.

Storm Heart (9/4 favourite) was the pick of Paul Townend in what is now the Grade 1 Gannon’s City Recovery & Recycling Services Juvenile Hurdle but came up short against Kargese, and a nightmare quickly began to develop for punters when Marine Nationale beat only one home in the Goffs Irish Arkle as 4/7 favourite in the next contest, followed by a 28/1 boilover in the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle with Maxxum.

Galopin Des Champs (1/3 favourite) restored some sense of order in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup, quickly backed up by 4/1 joint market leader Madara in Ryanair Handicap Chase, but extra punishment for favourite-followers arrived in the bumper when 8/11 favourite A Dream To Share was unplaced in sixth behind a 12/1 winner, Jeroboam Machin.

Even on day two, Brucio (20/1) and Lord Erskine (40/1) made life tough for punters in the handicap hurdles, and both Gaelic Warrior (4/7) and Aurora Vega (5/6) tasted defeat for the Mullins team. El Fabiolo (4/11), State Man (2/5) and Ballyburn (10/11) managed to hold up their end of the bargain.

Favourites to follow?

What about the overall record of short-priced favourites at the Dublin Racing Festival?

Blindly backing all even-money or shorter runners at this meeting since 2018 would see you only marginally in profit by €0.79 for a €1 stake on each runner (a total of 26 winners from 41 runners at those odds). Willie Mullins is 17 for 26 in this category, delivering a €0.34 profit.

The champion trainer has won more races than anyone else at the Dublin Racing Festival, yet his outright record with favourites isn’t always a highway to success. From 52 DRF favourites, he has struck with exactly half of them (26 winners/a level-stakes loss of €1.81). As for jockeys, Paul Townend is 18-32 on favourites at the DRF (a 56% strike rate/level-stakes loss of €1.81), Patrick Mullins is 5-11 (46% strike rate/€1.93 profit) and Rachael Blackmore is 4-8 (50% strike rate/€0.92 loss).

Highlighting such statistics, and the trials and tribulations of 12 months ago, isn’t intended to put the fear of God into those weighing up a wager this weekend. It is worth bearing in mind, though, that the current pecking orders for top stables, like Willie Mullins, are not set in stone come this point of the season. There was no better example of that than Danny Mullins riding the first three Grade 1 winners last year in races where Paul Townend would have had the choice.

Danny has ridden nine DRF winners, but has never ridden a DRF favourite - or won a Grade 1 on a favourite - in his career. Only Townend (22) has registered more winners at this meeting than him. Get set for a weekend of thrills and spills. There are bound to be plenty of them, even if the market right now doesn’t necessarily say so.