A PENNY for the thoughts of William Haggas, Sheikha Hissa, Shadwell, et al, when they watched Alpinista plough through the mud in attritional conditions for the Arc in ParisLongchamp.

A feeling of vindication perhaps. After all, there was bemoaning and even condemnation when it was announced that Baaeed would not finish up his career in maybe the greatest race there is. It’s not to say that he wouldn’t have dealt with the sort of test Alpinista passed in Paris, but he probably would have been odds against. That is to say, he probably wouldn’t have won.

His odds in the Champion Stakes (4.00) today indicate not only is it probable but it is very likely that Baaeed will win, 82% likely in fact. It has been a case of sensible rather than sensational placing from Haggas as we know Baaeed is proven over this distance and this course, but there are ramifications when you take, for want of a better description, the easier option.

A 2/9 favourite means betting interest in the race will be minimal and with that, the crowd bays for more. Of course Baaeed should be lauded for finishing his career unbeaten, but when you’re dealing with a horse this good, it’s easy to be underwhelmed on occasion and you hope that Baaeed’s final flourish will be as bright as it ever has been.

In swerving the Arc, he wasn’t given the chance to emulate his sire Sea The Stars, and instead is coming the Frankel route. Incidentally, his biggest rival today, Adayar, is by that sire, and will play the role of a Cirrus Des Aigles in attempting to spoil the party.

Can he be the worthy adversary that French-trained gelding was? There is every chance. He’s fresh and produced his best performance at this track when taking the King George. Connections will feel they have unfinished business in this contest with Adayar as well, having ran a disappointing fifth 12 months ago. That came after a punishing effort in the Arc, so there are no such worries on that front today.

Attention

There are three other Group 1s at Ascot today with Inspiral likely to garner much attention in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3.20). The Jacques le Marois winner can confirm herself the best three-year-old European miler around with a win, though she is rated 1lb below the Poule d’Essai des Poulains winner Modern Games, who pushed Baaeed close in the Sussex and will have his supporters.

Irish interest comes in the Fillies & Mares (2.40), the Sprint Stakes (2.00) and the Long Distance Cup (1.25). Rosscarbery and Thunder Kiss are two rock solid fillies who should give their running in the former, Tenebrism takes on the Sprint while it will be intriguing to see how Waterville fares in the opener.

Aidan O’Brien’s colt was a remarkable winner of the Irish Cesarewitch and connections forwent a rare double attempt at Newmarket to come here instead. He faces Trueshan, bidding for a hat-trick of wins in this race, and the St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov.

Chan hoping to finish whirldwind year on another high

OWNER Marc Chan will likely be at Ascot today to see his star horse Kinross take on an intriguing assignment by going down a furlong in trip for the British Champions Sprint Stakes (2.00), but he also has an interesting runner at Leopardstown with the Jessica Harrington-trained Bold Discovery in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes (3.45).

Chan acquired the American bred son of Bolt D’Oro after he made a winning debut at Naas where he impressed over the seven furlongs, having come under pressure a furlong from home only to respond readily to Shane Foley’s urgings to run out a comfortable winner.

Speaking to The Irish Field yesterday, Foley said of Bold Discovery: “He’s a grand big, forward-going horse and we liked him a lot even before he ran at Naas. He won well there and the form of that race has worked out well with a good few horses coming out and running well in maidens.

“He stayed on strongly and got the trip well. We got the lead there but he might not get it here, but he is a straightforward horse and we’re looking forward to seeing what he can do.”

This will be Chan’s second runner trained in Ireland and a second runner trained by Harrington having also moved in to buy the blacktype filly Valeria Messalina. The Malaysian native has had a brilliant year namely through the exploits of Kinross and Lezoo, the Cheveley Park winner he owns with Andrew Rosen.