WHEN data paints a positive picture about a horse’s performance, the temptation is to conclude that this is the horse’s default position. The truth is that the circumstances that enabled a horse to record excellent data may not be repeated next time out. Equally, a data-rich performance could preface a poorer effort next time out, commonly known as the ‘bounce factor’.

A good example of where a change in the race circumstances prefaces a lesser effort came with the performance of Allegorie De Vassy in the BBA Ireland Limited Opera Hat Mares Chase last Saturday. She had produced a data-rich performance, when winning at Fairyhouse in January, setting a strong pace and dominating that Grade 3 from the front, recording a career-best Race IQ jump index of 8.4 and gaining 12.63 lengths on her rivals through her jumping.