NOW in his sixth year of framing the weights for the world’s greatest steeplechase, BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood believes that horses will require a rating of 145 to get a run on Saturday the 13th of April.
Speaking ahead of the unveiling of the weights for the 176th renewal of the Aintree spectacular, Greenwood revealed that this year he has decided to treat it in the same way as any other race, despite the National being the only race when he is allowed to deviate from official BHA ratings.
Greenwood explained: “I think the days of compression of the weights for horses at the top of the handicap (ie treating them more leniently than in a normal race), which reached its peak under my predecessor Phil Smith, are now well and truly over.
“This is due to the evolving nature of the Grand National itself and how it has changed in recent years. So, in many ways I did not find this year’s race particularly difficult to handicap.”
As to the position in the weights required to get a run in the race on the day, Greenwood said: “I always say if a horse is rated 145 then you are pretty much certain to get a run on the day and the five-year average rating necessary to obtain a run is 143.
“The position in the handicap at the time of the weights needed to get a run on the day has varied between 67 and 72 over the past five years.
“Last year the lowest rated horse to get in was rated 137, although that was something of an anomaly as it was the first time since 2013 that horses had raced from outside of the handicap.
“With the reduction in field size to 34 runners this year, I would stand by my original advice that a rating of at least 145 is what you need to line up on the day.”
As to the quality of this year’s race, Greenwood believes it is well up to standard.
He continued: “While there are slightly less horses rated 155-plus this year, the band of horses rated 150-154 remains strong and I think this year’s race looks strong on quality.
“There are horses that still need to fulfill all the qualification requirements by the 26th of March. These include Le Milos and 11 Irish-trained entries, with the main reason being they have not had the necessary six runs over fences.”
Asked to select an eye-catching entry, Greenwood nominates Panda Boy.
He concluded: “I think Panda Boy looks interesting as he appears to have a progressive profile and his trainer Martin Brassil has a great record in the race.”
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