FAUGHEEN

THE CHRISTMAS HURDLE 2M

FAUGHEEN (44) simply ran away with the race, cruising clear to win full of running by eight lengths in remarkable fast time. He’s won on good ground and heavy, over two and three miles. It’s easy to buy into the fact that Faugheen is some kind of super-horse who will never be beaten. There has to be a decent possibility that such a big, strong horse will get taken off his feet by the tremendous early gallop they normally go in the Champion Hurdle.

HURRICANE FLY

THE BHP IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE 2M

HURRICANE Fly (43) clocked a seriously fast time. You could argue that after two seriously fast and hard fought wins in a row Hurricane Fly will not be at his best for Cheltenham. You could also point to statistics which knock his chances of taking the big race for a third time.

In the last 26 runnings of the Champion Hurdle, 17 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. Only one won and just one more placed.

Hurricane Fly is undoubtedly one of the best hurdlers of all time and goes into the Champion Hurdle on the back of two exceptionally fast Grade 1 wins. Logically I’d have thought the bookies would have him as favourite rather than the 8/1 they’re currently offering.

JEZKI (40) moved really well almost all the way and looked set for success rounding the home turn. He blundered at the last, losing a lot of momentum. It strikes me that Jezki’s big effort in the Ryanair Hurdle less than four weeks before may have knocked him a little off form.

I think it’s interesting to note that a pattern has developed in Jezki’s form since his novice days: He wins when he’s fresh and loses when he isn’t.

Jezki’s form under National Hunt rules when he’s been fresh in this way shows nine wins from 12 tries, with two of his losses being very good seconds to Hurricane Fly. He’s lost the three times he hasn’t been fresh in this way since his novice days. There are more than 35 days until the Champion Hurdle, so Jezki shouldn’t fail for lack of freshness.

I rather wonder if his enthusiasm for battle may have been dented by three hard fought losses in a row. The statistics suggest it’s hardly a plus for a Champion Hurdle runner to go into the big race on the back of three or more successive losses. In the last quarter century only Hardy Eustace and Granville Again have managed to win the Champion Hurdle after losing their last three starts.

All in all therefore, despite the fact he won the Champion Hurdle last year, I’m slithering towards a negative view on Jezki for the big race.

ARCTIC FIRE (42) is a big, strong, deep-chested sort who looks more like a two and a half mile chaser than a two mile hurdler.

Looking at his physique, I’m now wondering whether fast ground really is the principal requirement for Arctic Fire. It could be he simply needs a strong pace up front to bring his stamina into play.

A big field tends to generate a strong pace, and Arctic Fire’s record in big fields is impressive. If that narrow loss in the County Hurdle had gone his way he would have won all four times he’s run in fields of 11 or more. He was only narrowly beaten when attempting to give weight to a horse that won a Grade 1 next time.

In fields smaller than 11 Arctic Fire, has lost eight times out of eight.

However, he’s earned speed ratings from me big enough to win a Champion Hurdle on his last two outings in strongly run two mile events.

With the ground likely to be fast, and the gallop searching, I like Arctic Fire’s chances of continuing the progression and beating Hurricane Fly, Jezki and the rest in the Champion Hurdle.

THE NEW ONE

HAYDOCK CHAMPION HURDLE TRIAL 2M

THE going was heavy and this probably didn’t suit The New One (38-pace adjusted 41). The only previous time he’d raced on heavy ground had produced a sub-par loss as a novice. The only time he’d tackled genuinely soft ground in a top race was when he lost to My Tent Or Yours at Kempton.

This is the norm for horses with a turn of foot as good as The New One. Their acceleration gets blunted by testing ground.

The New One’s ability to quicken in soft ground was severely tested as the early pace was not the strong.

As a result runner-up Bertimont was able to kick for home from three out and get to the finish a good deal faster than they managed in the Grade 2 novice hurdle on the same card.

Gaining ground into a quickening pace is hard enough on fast ground. On heavy it’s a serious challenge, but The New One was up to it.

He surged forwards in impressive style and sustained his finishing kick for a long way to run down Bertimont and score by over two lengths.

The New One has now won his last five starts. His record may not be quite as impressive as that of Champion Hurdle favourite Faugheen. However, his best run rates as only a length a mile slower on my ratings.

KITTEN ROCK

LIMESTONE LAD HURDLE (GRADE 3) 2M 3F

Rounding the home turn Walsh asked Kitten Rock (38) for his effort and he quickened through to lead down the inside. He engaged with a long duel with the runner-up Glens Melody and was clearly already getting the better of that one when the mare fluffed the final jump.

Having seen this run and analysed his form I’d say it’s pretty clear that Kitten Rock is a tough horse to ride around really big, wide galloping courses as he’d see too much daylight.

In fact Kitten Rock has lost all four times he’s run around courses bigger than a mile and a half in circumference. He’s won the last six times he’s run around tracks 12 furlongs around or less.

The obvious race for Kitten Rock is the Aintree Hurdle. He proved he will stay the distance at Naas and could easily be good enough seeing that he keeps on winning with quite a bit in hand while clocking fast times.