A horse trained by Gavin Cromwell has dramatically declined odds at the Cheltenham Festival, plummeting from 33-1 to 3-1 after a notable fourth-place result in its last race.

The eight-year-old gelding, formerly available at around 33/1 last week with Bet365, is currently priced at 4-1 with them. However, the horse can be found as low as 3/1 with the best horse racing betting sites.

With this staggering price change stealing headlines, let us take a closer look at why Now is the Hour is on everyone’s betting slip for Cheltenham and whether or not he’s worth the punt.

Victorious in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Haydock in February, Now Is The Hour has not distinguished itself over jumps this season.

In a 2m4½f chase at Navan, Ile Atlantique pumped him 48 lengths, and when he was next seen at Punchestown, he was beaten 37 lengths over 3m.

However, it was his last performance last Saturday—where he again ended outside the placements—that seems to have triggered his market decline. Sent out at 20-1 with Keith Donoghue, Now Is The Hour was restrained until advancing effortlessly four furlongs from the finish.

Now Is The Hour maintained a strong performance in the last parts of the 3m event on soft ground, finishing four lengths behind the esteemed Three Card Brag. Since then, his price has plummeted, and he is now the obvious favourite for the restructured National Hunt Chase, which has been converted into a handicap for beginners.

Limited information is available on the horse; nevertheless, jockey Sean Flanagan said after the Haydock victory: "Now Is The Hour truly thrives on this type of ground (heavy)."

"I established a pleasant rhythm, and he returned home satisfactorily,” he added. “He is a promising candidate.“

A 3m point-to-point victor, Now Is The Hour, finished second behind Willie Mullins' skilled Asian Master on his subsequent outing in that discipline. His two victories over hurdles were on soft and heavy ground, with his most impressive performance being the arduous contest at Haydock, a course known for its challenging conditions.

National Hunt Novice Chase Odds (Top 10)

- Now Is The Hour [4/1]

- Deafening Silence [8/1]

- Haiti Couleurs [8/1]

- Hyland [11/1]

- Transmission [13/1]

- Sa Majeste [15/1]

- Answer To Kayf [15/1]

- Shannon Royale [15/1]

- Inthewaterside [15/1]

- Search For Glory [17/1]

(Available odds as of 27/01/2024)

If we’re using National Hunt Chase trends to determine a winner before the countdown to Cheltenham is up, it doesn’t look good for Now Is The Hour.

- Willie Mullins has coached three of the past seven winners.

- Gordon Elliott has achieved 4 victories from 14 competitors.

- Twelve of the past twenty victors were seven years old.

- Eight of the past fourteen victors were rated 150 or above.

- One of the last eleven betting favourites became victorious.

Regarding these aforementioned trends, Now Is The Hour goes against all of them: He isn’t trained by Mullins or Elliot, he isn’t seven years old, nor is he rated 150 or above and most importantly, he’s the betting favourite.

Worse still, here are some more National Hunt trends that go against the newly established betting favourite:

- Nine of the last twelve winners were aged between six and eight.

- Nine out of twelve winners had at least one prior race at Cheltenham.

- Eleven out of twelve winners had at least three prior chase races.

- Ten out of twelve winners had at least four prior chase races.

- Eleven out of twelve champions have a rating of 142 or above.

Stamina is a crucial condition; however, experience is also significant since a large field is likely to confront the starter. The benchmark, however, has indisputably risen in recent years, with the top and second-ranked horses in 2021, 2022, and 2024 both rated over 150.

Interestingly, in 2023, Gaillard Du Mesnil was the sole contender rated over 150 and the first favourite to win since 2013.

Can Now Is The Hour defy the trends? Probability certainly believes so. However, much like every National Hunt, every horse is a valid contender, and the favourites often, more than not, falter.