COME noon today, it’s widely expected that a new name will have been added to the mix for next Friday’s Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes at York.

Reigning champion Highfield Princess has been coming to the boil nicely for a defence of her crown, and rates the one to beat. However, the presence of fresh challenger Big Evs makes the Sky Bet Ebor Festival’s feature sprint prize all the more intriguing.

In recent weeks, Big Evs’ connections have been bold in signalling their intent to pay a supplementary entry fee of £40,000 to join the five-furlong contest at the last possible opportunity today. What makes his expected participation in the Nunthrope especially noteworthy, is the fact he will likely be the only meaningful two-year-old contender to take on his older rivals over the minimum trip.

Instances of juveniles being campaigned against older horses have been largely uncommon in this race, and that can probably be viewed as slightly surprising. Of course, it takes a battle-hardened and mature two-year-old to be suited to an assignment like this, but there is a seriously attractive weight advantage on offer for those willing to test the waters.

Weighty matter

Colts and geldings aged four or older must shoulder 9st 13lb in the Nunthrope, with fillies of the same age carrying 9st 10lb. Three-year-old colts and geldings are fixed to run off 9st 11lb, while fillies aged three have 9st 8lb.

In stark contrast, though, if a two-year-old colt or gelding takes aim at their elders in the Nunthrope, they will carry just 8st 3lb. Fillies race off a lowly 8st – a whole 27lb lower than four-year-old colts and geldings in the same race.

All of those pounds add up. For context, according to figures available on the British Horseracing Authority’s online database, approximately 3lb to 4lb can be measured as the equivalent of a length between rivals in a five-furlong race.

By and large, that weight differential has good reason to be substantial. A bare look at this Group 1’s roll of honour shows just two juvenile winners of the Nunthorpe since 1992, Lyric Fantasy and Kingsgate Native. That said, others from a small sample have gone close without quite hitting the jackpot, with just 11 lining up in the race since the turn of the millenium – the majority of which were sent off at double-figure prices.

Recent near-misses

It was only last year that we saw the best performance from any juvenile in the Nunthorpe since Kingsgate Native in 2007 when The Platinum Queen finished second to Highfield Princess, while Wesley Ward-trained powerhouse filly Acapulco filled the same position in 2015.

Additionally, Radiohead finished a fine third in the 2009 renewal on only his fourth career start. All told, from limited chances, two-year-olds running in the Nunthorpe have won or been placed more than 36% of the time since 2000. Connections might have concerns about exposing their young stock against elders but the outing hasn’t appeared to have done any harm to those who have recently tried their luck.

The Platinum Queen won the Prix de l’Abbaye later that same season before being sold for a tasty 1,200,000gns, while the likes of Requinto bounced back to win the Flying Childers Stakes the following month and Dinkum Diamond was beaten a neck in the same Group 2 on his next start.

Bounce-back ability

More recently in 2021, 10,000gns yearling bargain Chipotle showed no ill effects of his down-the-field finish at York (hampered at the start in Nunthrope) when winning the Listed Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar on his final start that season before selling for 210,000gns. Radiohead was narrowly denied in the Middle Park Stakes in the same season as his Nunthrope third. It can be done.

If connections feel they have a suitably mature two-year-old for this test, why would they not take a chance on exploiting the massive weight incentive? There are no Group 1 races over five furlongs in Britain for the remainder of the season and the Flying Five at the Curragh is not open to juveniles.

There is so much to gain if managing to join an extremely select group of two-year-olds who have prospered in the Nunthrope. Realistically, if these juveniles are under any sort of consideration for a tilt at the York contest, then they would surely have already won a group race. There probably aren’t dramatic stallion prospect gains to be made if adding another juvenile group race win in a contest like the Flying Childers at Doncaster?

The breeding landscape is already well populated with speed influences in terms of sires. A two-year-old with the precocity and toughness to beat his elders would surely stand out somewhat in a congested market. If you get beaten here but your body of work is otherwise solid, this run surely won’t be judged harshly. It’s something of a free shot.

The Middle Park Stakes can be viewed as an alternative juvenile option - if able to stay six furlongs. That contest hasn’t been a massive pointer to future stallion success at the highest level in recent times, though. The roll of honour from 2008 to 2017 reads: Bushranger, Awzaan, Dream Ahead, Crusade, Reckless Abandon, Astaire, Charming Thought, Shalaa, The Last Lion and U S Navy Flag. Some have had success, but it’s probably fair to say they are not deemed to be top-tier stallions.

Time is of the essence

You could take the view that the Nunthrope will still be there for these horses in their three-year-old season, but a lot can change in the space of 12 months when dealing with young sprinters. Just look at Little Big Bear, who would have been a massive player in last year’s Nunthorpe on the basis of his awesome Phoenix Stakes win but was retired less than 12 months later.

There is plenty to like about Big Evs, and how he is being camapigned. He is a son of first-season-sire Blue Point, who has been making excellent waves throughout 2023 and himself pulled off a rare achievement of completing the King’s Stand-Diamond Jubilee Stakes double at Royal Ascot in 2019.

Trainer Mick Appleby is undoubtedly a shrewd operator too and thinks the world of this year’s Windsor Castle Stakes scorer.

Speaking in the aftermath of winning the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood, Appleby said: “Big Evs is as tough as anything. He’s the best two-year-old we’ve ever had. As soon as I got him, I knew he was special.”

Whether Big Evs is talented enough to beat Highfield Princess remains to be seen but hats off to Appleby and owners RP Racing Ltd if they do end up supplementing.

A bold bid could pave the way for more juveniles to follow suit in future.