GER Lyons endured a down season in 2023, a total of 40 winners during the official turf season his lowest since 2013, but an average tally of 65 winners per season between 2018 and 2022 suggests positive regression can be expected this year and things started well for him at Naas last Sunday.

His two winners – Wendla and Janoobi – showcased some of his training specialties: winners at Naas, with fillies and mares that are just below top class and with older handicappers.

Since the start of 2018, Naas ranks third in the tracks where Lyons has trained the most winners, behind Dundalk and Leopardstown and ahead of the Curragh, the trainer having had more runners at each of those other tracks.

He has a particularly strong record at the early season Naas meetings, the two winners on Sunday bringing his figures at the track in March to 10 winners from 42 winners for a strike rate of 23.8% and a level-stakes profit of 37.83 points, something that might be worth keeping in mind for early next season.

Following Wendla’s win, and referencing Sakti, a similar type that broke her maiden at Dundalk on Friday, Lyons commented that ‘I’m not saying they are Guineas horses or anything…but we would like to be going to a trial and see where the ceiling is in time.’

Blacktype races

Those trials, and more broadly the lesser blacktype races for fillies and mares, have been a happy hunting ground for Lyons in recent times.

Since 2015, his record in Irish Group 3 and listed races confined to fillies and mares have produced 31 winners from 169 runners, which is a strikerate of 18.3% and a level-stakes profit of 10.88 points, with multiple winners like Zarinsk, Thunder Kiss and Who’s Steph among that group.

Janoobi was a surprising horse for Lyons to keep in training, having not run in 575 days since the 2022 Irish Cambridgeshire, but was clearly a winner that he enjoyed, saying afterwards that ‘there is a lot of satisfaction in that because he’s come back from a massive injury and the team have done a marvellous job.’

Older handicappers without potential tend not to be retained by Lyons, as they move instead to other trainers, but the hint can often be taken about those that are kept in the yard.

Since 2015, Lyons has run 92 individual horses aged four or older in handicaps, with 40 of them winning at least once, often in the first half of the season, and plenty have landed premier handicaps, most notably Mustajeer in the 2019 Ebor.

THE 15 races across the two flat turf meetings so far this year have been spread across 13 individual winning trainers, only Ger Lyons and Paddy Twomey with two winners, so it is fair to say no yard has had a barnstorming start. With Easter early this year and the focus this weekend on jumps racing, it could take a little time to find out which trainers have their horses most forward.

More historical figures might be able to help in that regard, however. Since the start of 2019, there have been 469 flat turf races run in Ireland during March and April, with no such races taking place in 2020 due to the lockdown.

Pure winners

In that period, Aidan O’Brien has done best in terms of pure winners trained with 64, following by Jessica Harrington, Joseph O’Brien and Ger Lyons, with 29 winners apiece, Jim Bolger rounding out the top five with 25 winners.

Looking at strike rate rather than winners in the same period, three names stand out. Both Natalia Lupini and Paddy Twomey have done well from a small sample size, Lupini five winners from 14 runners and Twomey 11 winners from 39 runners, for respective strike rates of 35.7% and 28.2%.

Aidan O’Brien has had 64 winners from 264 runners for a strike rate 24.2%, largely business as usual despite concerns about his horses needing a run, with no one else breaking an 18% strike rate.

THE twin features at the Curragh on the first day of the turf season were on the straight mile and the overall and sectional times provide at least a starting point into what happened in the Park Express Stakes and the Lincoln.

The Group 3 for fillies and mares was run in an overall time 1.22 seconds faster than the handicap, a little surprising given the Lincoln was a bigger field of older handicappers, but even more surprising was the early pace in both races.

Per Timeform, the fillies and mares in the Park Express got to the three-furlong pole 3.37 seconds quicker than the runners in the Lincoln, and from there slowed markedly, something that is supported by the furlong-by-furlong splits from Course Track.

Whereas Chazzesmee covered the final furlong of the Lincoln in 13.99 seconds, the fastest finisher in the Park Express took 15.39 seconds.

That sort of pace made things difficult for those that raced up with the pace in the Park Express with both the winner Brilliant and the runner-up Alpheratz coming from behind.

Blessing in disguise

Alpheratz had blown the start which may have been a blessing in disguise, and it is possible she could reverse form with the more exposed winner if they meet again, her trainer Joe Murphy not typically an early season handler, though of course Aidan O’Brien could get more out of the winner too.

Favourite Goldana did best of those that raced up with the pace, but Magical Sunset is also worth a mention.

Amo Racing horses, regardless of trainer, tend to be ready in the early part of the season but that seemed not to be the case with this penalised four-year-old who had joined Adrian Murray from Dominic Ffrench Davis having previously been with Richard Hannon.

Proven

She was very weak in the betting despite being proven under conditions but travelled as well as any to press the leaders three furlongs out, Course Track sectionals having her fastest of all in furlong five, but that effort told as she faded into fifth. Neither fitness nor the run of the race seemed on her side here and she can do better next time if getting her favoured ground.

Chazzesmee ran out quite a comfortable winner of the Lincoln and as a seven-furlong winner was more suited by the run of the race than the runner-up Smooth Tom, that one having form over 10 furlongs and further.

Good mark

Smooth Tom does look on a good mark now with a view to stepping up in trip, his yard having started the season well, while the fourth Casanova is another that is potentially well-treated having dropped from a high of 100 last season down to 85 here.

Another feature of the Lincoln was that it favoured those that raced more towards the near side, and it may be worth marking up the efforts of the low drawn pair Green Sky and Razdan, both of which made their challenges towards the far side of the track before fading late.

Both were also out of the handicap here and have the option of taking in lower grade races.