AS the curtain comes down on the Punchestown Festival, it spells the end of the 2022/23 National Hunt campaign and also signals for the flat season to ratchet up another gear.

It can be a tricky time for punters and racing fans to transition from one form book to another, and the presence of early-season testing ground on the flat adds another dimension that must be factored in when attempting to find a winner.

In fact, since the 2023 flat season kicked off at the Curragh last month, 10 of the 15 meetings have had the word ‘heavy’ in the going description, with two others having ‘soft’ mentioned.

So then, what pointers can we look out for when conditions turn testing?

A horse’s pedigree can often tell us plenty about their likely aptitude for soft ground, and a look at the numbers on this topic flags up a number of sires whose progeny have performed well on rain-softened surfaces.

Sire power

When looking at the last six years of flat racing in Britain and Ireland where the ground has been described as soft or heavy - and factoring in only sires who have had at least 70 runners in these conditions to ensure a fair sample size (also eliminating statistical randomness) - Authorized emerges with the best strike rate of all at 18%.

Tiger Roll’s sire, who previously stood at Darley’s Haras du Logis, was sold in 2019 to join the Turkish Jockey Club’s band of stallions, commanding a fee of €12,500 this year.

Le Havre (17%) is next in the testing-ground standings, followed by Night Of Thunder, New Bay, Farhh, Multiplex, Galileo (all 16%), Kingman, No Nay Never, Sixties Icon, Gleneagles, Frankel, Dubawi, Due Diligence and Roderic O’Connor (all 15%).

Of these, when comparing their overall turf strike rates with their record in testing ground, the biggest improvements come with Authorized, whose strike rate of 13% on all types of turf raises to 18% on slow ground, followed by Multiplex (11% to 16%) and Due Diligence (11% to 15%).

Despite being in the top 15 on easy surfaces, Dubawi’s strike rate slightly drops on testing ground (20% to 15%), similar to Frankel (19% to 15%) and New Bay (19% to 16%).

This trio are clearly elite sires supported with top mares every year, but which stallions are performing better than the market expects with their runners on easy ground?

Exceeding expectations

One way of assessing this is by using the WAX (wins above expectations) metric, which takes the number of winners for the sires in these conditions - minus the number of winners they would have been expected to produce (judged by their progeny’s betting odds).

Leading the way on this scale is Fast Company, who has sired 24 more winners on testing ground in the last six years than the betting would have predicted.

Sixties Icon, Mayson and Equiano (each with 12 extra winners) are next, followed by Vocalised (11), Roderic O’Connor (10), No Nay Never (9), Gleneagles (8), Monsieur Bond (7), Elzaam, Stimulation, Multiplex (each with 6), Fastnet Rock, Authorized and Sakhee’s Secret (each with 5).

At the opposite end of the spectrum for the same criteria, sires with the lowest strike rates on testing ground are Dabirsim, So You Think, Orientor, Lord Shanakill, Estidhkaar, Approve, Markaz, Paco Boy, Fountain Of Youth, Aussie Rules, Toronado, Swiss Spirit, Lilbourne Lad, Vale Of York and Buratino.

Damsire influence

When it comes to the strike rates of damsires in soft or worse ground over the past six years, Dutch Art heads the standings at 19%. Behind him in the top 15 are runners out of mares by Mark Of Esteem (17%), Intikhab, Motivator, Seeking The Gold, Lomitas, Act One, Polar Falcon, Sea The Stars (all 15%), Desert King, Unfuwain, Pastoral Pursuits (all 14%), Galileo and Monsun (both 13%).

Those who come out best in terms of WAX for damsires are Galileo (23 extra winners in the past six years), Dutch Art (13), Mark Of Esteem (12), Intikhab, Alhaarth, Pivotal (each with 10), Motivator (9), Teofilo (8), Hawk Wing, High Chaparral (both with 7), King’s Best, Azamour (both with 6), Lomitas, Cadeaux Genereux and Pastoral Pursuits (each with 5).

At the bottom end of the damsire strike-rate table on testing ground are Intense Focus, Rip Van Winkle, Alzao, Linamix, With Approval, Marju, Hurricane Run, Jeremy, Bahamian Bounty, Fantastic Light, Nashwan, Smart Strike, Entrepreneur, Big Bad Bob and Royal Academy.

Riding high

It was flagged up by racing analyst Terry Norman last autumn that Frankie Dettori was operating at a poor strike rate when it came to races run on ground described as soft or slower at the time, implying his riding style may not always be suited to a grind in dour conditions.

What about Irish-based flat riders who excel when the mud is flying? From those who have had at least 70 rides on soft or heavy ground in Ireland over the past six years, Ryan Moore (26%) comes out on top as one of only eight jockeys with a double-digit strike rate.

Shane Crosse (15%) is next in the standings ahead of Colin Keane (14%), Seamie Heffernan, Billy Lee, Dylan Browne McMonagle, Shane Foley (all 12%) and Luke McAteer (10%).

Of these riders, only Crosse and Lee have higher strikes on soft or heavy ground than is the case on all types of turf over the last six years, while Shane Foley’s record is identical. Crosse’s 12% strike rate on all types of turf jumps up to 15% when getting onto softer ground and Lee’s goes from just below to above 12%.

When it comes to jockeys who are beating market expectations on the WAX scale, again, Shane Crosse (15 extra winners) comes out best, clear of Gary Carroll (11), Billy Lee, Shane Foley (both with 10), Killian Leonard (7), Seamie Heffernan (6), Luke McAteer (5), Dylan Browne McMonagle and Niall McCullagh (both with 4).

Trainer trends

As for Irish trainers with at least 70 runners on testing ground over the last half dozen years, the top four in terms of strike rates - Paddy Twomey, Aidan O’Brien, Willie Mullins and Ger Lyons - fill the same positions on both slow ground and all types of turf.

Looking deeper into the top 20 strike rates on slow ground, some handlers boast much better records when rain gets into the turf.

Eddie and Patrick Harty’s flat strike rate (including data from when Eddie solely held the licence) doubles from 5% to 10% on soft or heavy ground, while Austin Leahy’s improves from 6% to 10%.

To a lesser extent, there are also bolstered figures on testing ground for Fozzy Stack (9% to 12%), who has notched an impressive four winners from just 20 runners in the past two months, and Matthew Smith (11% to 14%), who is no stranger to popping up with Galway Festival winners in testing conditions.

Long story short, the next time you’re at a rain-soaked meeting and find a horse by Authorized out of a Dutch Art mare - ridden by Shane Crosse for Paddy Twomey or Eddie and Patrick Harty - the stats suggest you should have plenty in your favour. Sounds simple.